New favorites for the 2024 Heisman Trophy have emerged in recent weeks, but where is the current value on the NCAAF futures odds?
With Halloween soon upon us, the battle for this year’s Heisman Trophy is really heating up. Helping to add fuel to the fire, the preseason favorites have faded to make for a wide-open race between more than just quarterbacks.
Changes at top sportsbooks in the Heisman race are following suit with the shifting of teams in the top 10 of the polls during the first nine weeks. Oregon became the fourth No. 1 in the AP rankings this week, and the Big Ten has replaced the SEC as the dominant league at the top of the polls.
We shouldn’t expect either the race for the College Football Playoffs or the battle for the Heisman to go static anytime soon, nor do we want it to since it opens up value bets for the savvy college football bettor.
Can ‘Canes Continue Unbeaten Season?
Checking in at No. 6 in the latest polls is Miami, making the Hurricanes the top-ranked squad not from the Big Ten or SEC. Much of the credit for the 7-0 start goes to quarterback Cam Ward, who sits atop the Heisman odds in the +200 to +250 range.
Ward’s numbers certainly fit as the frontrunner. The senior transfer from Washington State leads the nation averaging over 362 yards passing per game, tops the country with 24 touchdown passes – against just 5 picks – and sports the 2nd-best QB rating in DI (183.5).
The trouble is there’s not much value in a wager on Ward at this time. Granted, a +250 return isn’t bad for a winning bet, but the real value on Ward was preseason when he was well back on the list around +2000.
Miami has a very good chance to head to the ACC Championship undefeated. The Hurricanes just survived a couple of rough road dates, and if Ward can get them to the conference title game at 12-0, his odds are only going to get shorter.
Dillon & Ducks On Top
The starting quarterback on the No. 1 team in the country is always a viable candidate for the Heisman Trophy. That puts Dillon Gabriel in our spotlight, and with some value to boot.
Gabriel was third on the Heisman list entering 2024, and is still third on the latest NCAAF odds. A +1000 choice back in August, Gabriel can now be found around +400 at most outlets, so the value has diminished but still represents a nice price as the guy under center for the top-ranked Ducks.
Having much of the country see Gabriel help the Ducks beat Ohio State a couple of Saturdays ago should boost his chances with the Heisman voters. It wasn’t a huge night statistically for Gabriel (23-34, 341 yds, 2 TD), but he did direct the late game-winning drive in the mild upset that closed with the Buckeyes laying a field goal.
Oregon still has a few marquee games to get Gabriel a little more attention. Illinois comes to Eugene this week and Washington makes that same trip to close the regular season, plus there’s a matchup in Ann Arbor against Michigan between those games.
Jeanty & Tucker Lurking in Shadows
Sitting between Ward and Gabriel on the Heisman odds is Boise State tailback Ashton Jeanty, with Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter a distant fourth behind Gabriel.
Some oddsmakers even have Jeanty ahead of Ward, but most have the BSU back around +230 to +250. Hunter can be found anywhere from +1400 to +2000.
A 6-TD, 267-yard performance in the series opener put Jeanty in the news after he wasn’t even listed on most Heisman odds boards in August. He’s already at 1,248 yards rushing in just six games, and was taken out early in Boise State blowouts of Portland State and Utah State.
Hunter has 51 receptions the season, 6 for touchdowns, and also has 2 interceptions playing left cornerback for the Buffaloes.
Both make solid cases to win it, but the value is almost gone now on Jeanty while Hunter is going to find it difficult to wow voters given Colorado’s remaining schedule.
From Preseason Favorite to October Value Pick?
The two frontrunners in August were a couple of QBs, Georgia’s Carson Beck and Quinn Ewers of Texas. Both have slipped down the list, with Ewers way off the pace at +7500 and facing an almost impossible task of making up 2+ games worth of stats he missed with an oblique injury.
Beck, on the other hand, might hold some of the best value at this time. He and Ewers were +750 in August, and the Georgia signal-caller is now fetching a fat +2500 return after the Bulldogs beat the Longhorns in Austin.
Georgia has the week off before gathering for the annual cocktail party with Florida. That is followed by two huge games in which Beck could regain control of the Heisman: at Ole Miss and home against Tennessee.
