When Major League Baseball resumed its postseason schedule Tuesday, all four of the best-of-5 League Division Series matchups were knotted at one win apiece, and we all know what that means.
That’s right, it means the owners on the next four stops this October – Detroit, Kansas City, Queens and San Diego – are guaranteed two large paydays from ticket sales for Games 3 and 4 of the division round. But what does it mean for baseball bettors looking to beat their top-rated sportsbooks this postseason and for postseasons to come?
What Happened to Home Field Advantage?
October has not been kind to home teams specifically, and higher seeds in general, continuing a trend that started when MLB expanded the playoffs in 2022.
Home teams won 3 of the 9 games played in this year’s Wild Card round, with 3 of the 4 squads to host the round failing to advance. That early round of action has seen home teams go just 10-16 since 2022, winning only 4 of the 12 Wild Card matchups.
Visitors have continued their fine play in the subsequent rounds each of the past two seasons, taking 8 of the 12 series in the LDS and LCS rounds. One of those home teams to make good was the Texas Rangers when they took down the Arizona Diamondbacks in last year’s World Series in a matchup of 5-6 seeds from their respective leagues.
Since winning the 2022 World Series, the Houston Astros have really struggled playing at home. After getting swept by the Tigers in the ALWC, Houston has dropped 7-straight home playoff games.
The four teams that hosted Wild Card round action this season – Baltimore, Houston, Milwaukee, San Diego – combined for a .561 win percentage during the regular season, though that didn’t do the Orioles, Astros and Brewers any good in the playoffs. Overall, home teams went 42.2-38.7 (.521) in 2024.
Underdogs & Under Best Wild Card Bets
All of those wins for the visitors and lower seeds have been quite lucrative for baseball bettors playing the underdogs on the MLB odds.
Visitors were the underdogs in all 9 games during the Wild Card round, and going 6-3 in those contests netted their backers 4.8 units of black ink. Playing chalk in those 9 contests cost bettors nearly 5.5 units, with Houston’s -175 moneyline the steepest favorite of the Wild Card games.
Along with the underdogs, ‘under’ bettors also cashed 6 of the 9 matchups during the opening round of playoff action. The ‘over’ has since cashed in 7 of the 10 LDS games, plus a push.
Tarik Skubal Is Really Good
Detroit’s late push to make the playoffs was one of the better stories of the 2024 season. The Tigers were +3300 and higher at many sharp sportsbooks to win the American League Pennant back in March, and ended up exceeding their win total by 5-6 games.
Dispatching the AL West champion Astros from the proceedings in the Wild Card round only added a second layer to the Motown cake. For much of the nation, seeing Tarik Skubal blank Houston in the series opener might have been the first time they saw the likely AL Cy Young winner pitch this season.
Skubal and the Tigers closed around +125 in that 3-1 victory, and the southpaw was brilliant scattering 4 hits and striking out 7.
He was even better in Game 2 of the ALDS in Cleveland on Monday, posting 7 frames of zeroes while surrendering just 3 hits and whiffing 7 in a no-decision. Detroit won 3-0 on a late Kerry Carpenter home, closing on a similar moneyline price in that contest as against Houston.
Whether or not we see Skubal again could depend on the Tigers advancing past the Indians…or at least forcing a Game 5. The ALDS schedule would make it possible for him to pitch Game 5 on Saturday with four days of rest, but that would go against his recent schedule.
He pitched on four days rest a few times earlier in the year, but has been going more on 5-6 days between starts since the All-Star break.
The Mets are Always Entertaining
While Skubal might be the most exciting individual in the postseason, it’s the New York Mets who take team honors in that category. And let’s face it: the Mets are always entertaining, and seeing them face the Philadelphia Phillies is just good theater.
New York has basically been playing at the postseason level for nearly a month now. The Mets had two series – 7 games – against the Phillies in mid-September over the course of 10 days, then closed with the rainy set in Atlanta, 3 in Milwaukee, and a doubleheader back in Atlanta for a makeup on the Monday after the regular season ended.
Most of those games have been on the road, and the Mets celebrated their homecoming with a lopsided win over Philadelphia in Game 3 to take control of the NLDS. It will be difficult not to make ‘the other New York team’ our MLB pick the rest of the way.
