Opening Day is when hope springs eternal for all 30 Major League Baseball teams, when all teams are equal in the standings and every team begins its quest for bringing home a World Series Championship.
While the teams might be level in the standings, each with zero wins and zero losses, we know they aren’t even in talent between the foul lines. It doesn’t take long before we start culling teams from the list of legitimate playoff contenders.
It is now Opening Day Part 2 with the beginning of MLB’s second season, also known as the playoffs. And just like they were back in March, all 12 teams are level in the standings to start the postseason. Only the MLB futures odds at the betting sites don’t believe them to be equal, and we’re shortening that list with a few teams we will be fading.
Astros’ ALCS Streak Comes to an End
This is sure to please the haters of all things related to the Houston Astros, of which there are many. Listing the Astros as a team to bet against will be especially welcomed by fans of the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, who both feel Houston has cost them World Series titles in the past.
On behalf of all Astros fans, thanks for the hate that has fueled a fan base and a team that is in search of its eighth consecutive ALCS appearance. Houston made another patented run into the playoffs after enduring a very slow and frustrating start to the season. The Astros opened the season second to the Yankees to win the AL but looked dead in the water at 12-24 in early May.
As impressive as their comeback was to with the AL West, we also have to factor in the general demise of the division this season, specifically the underachieving ways of the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers.
Statistically, it was a decent year for Houston pitchers who sit tied with the Yankees for fourth in the AL in the ERA column and second in strikeouts. Even the offense looks okay with the 4th-best scoring average (4.60 rpg) in the AL and fifth with 190 homers.
There are question marks, however, for two of the top players. Justin Verlander didn’t pitch well enough last month to even warrant being included on the playoff roster, and slugger Yordan Alvarez is battling a sprained knee that kept him out of action for the final week of the schedule.
Yet another reason to fade Houston is the AL Wild Card matchup against the Detroit Tigers and former manager AJ Hinch. Upsetting the Astros, who are running around -200 to win the best of 3 series, would be huge for Hinch after he endured the brunt of the punishment for Houston’s sign-stealing scandal.
And yet one final reason I’m fading the Astros in at least the first two games of this series is because I’m hedging a futures wager on them to win the AL pennant, and this first round matchup with the Tigers scares me much more than any looming clash with Cleveland, New York or Baltimore.
Braves Are a No Sale
To be quite honest, I expected the Atlanta Braves to lose the second game of Monday’s doubleheader against the New York Mets, and it wasn’t just because ace Chris Sale was scratched from the start due to back spasms. It was more for how Atlanta lost the first game of that twinbill, blowing late leads in the eighth and ninth innings to allow the Mets to sew up a National League Wild Card slot.
Now that it doesn’t appear the Braves will have Sale for the NL Wild Card Series in San Diego, they make for an easy fade against the Padres.
Atlanta’s mound problems extend beyond not having Sale for the NLDS. Manager Brian Snitker brings a tired bullpen to Petco Park this week after having to play two on Monday. Raisel Iglesias and Joe Jimenez pitched both ends of the doubleheader to leave them iffy for Tuesday.
That’s on top of having to come up with an arm that can hopefully deliver 4, maybe 5 innings in Game 1, if Snitker is lucky. The top candidates to take the mound are Ian Anderson, AJ Smith-Shawver and Bryce Elder according to the Braves’ website. Fade the Braves on the MLB odds in this matchup…
…And Then Fade the Friars Next Round
In the world of sports gambling there are cinches and sure things, and then there are what I like to call JJ Gold Locks. The Los Angeles Dodgers winning their NLDS against either the Padres or the Braves is a Double JJ Gold Lock.
There ain’t no way the Dodgers fail to at least make the NLCS this October, no way whatsoever. Take the money you make when the Tigers beat the Astros and the Padres beat the Braves, and put it all on LA in the NLDS.
