Conference tournaments are in full swing, which means Selection Sunday will soon be upon us with seedings for the NCAA Tournament and brackets to be filled out.
However, let’s play make-believe for a moment, and pretend Joe Lunardi’s current projections for March Madness are perfect. What schools could be sleepers in each of the ESPN bracketologist’s regions and make a Cinderella run into the Final Four?
Florida Atlantic Owls
One of last year’s dark horses is as good a place to start as any.
Lunardi currently (March 13) has the Owls as the No. 9 seed in his Midwest Region, and top-rated sportsbooks are carrying Dusty May’s outfit around +4000 to return to the Final Four.
Their improbable run through March Madness 12 months ago had several pundits predicting a big drop-off this time around, but May has done a great job preventing that from happening, as the Owls prepare to meet a TBD opponent in the quarterfinals of the AAC Tournament.
Some of the drop-off was due to Florida Atlantic taking a step up from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference, but that proved not to be the case after the Owls finished second to South Florida in the regular season standings.
All four AAC losses came on the road, but the Owls did pick up impressive wins away from home on the noncon slate. Among those were neutral court wins over Texas A&M and Arizona, both times as the underdog.
The top 4 scorers from last year’s Final Four run are back, led by Johnell Davis (18.2 ppg), who also leads the Owls in assists. If their fate is an 8-9 seed, it potentially sets up a second-round collision with a No. 1.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Lunardi has the Gamecocks as his No. 5 seed in the East, which is coincidentally the same seed South Carolina carries into the SEC Tournament with the first matchup coming on Thursday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville.
South Carolina was nowhere to be found in the preseason polls, so ending the regular season 15th in the AP is a credit to Lamont Paris and his staff. The voters obviously agreed after naming Paris the SEC Coach of the Year.
It was an amazing turnaround for a team that won just 11 games a season ago when Paris took over with a new staff and makeshift roster. The Gamecocks are already +14 in the Win column going into the conference tourney.
They closed the campaign strong with 11 wins in the last 14 matchups, and the Gamecocks made friends with bettors playing the odds by cashing 22 of their 31 lined affairs at NCAAB betting sites.
Defense is South Carolina’s calling card. The Gamecocks were the toughest SEC team to score upon, limiting foes to 68.4 PPG (27th in the country), and while the offense was iffy at times, they did a great job protecting the rock.
South Carolina won four of its last five, three of those on the road, so the Gamecocks should be in a good zone entering the SEC Tournament. Having beaten Tennessee and Texas A&M on the road in tough venues, plus a home win over Kentucky, has them poised for upsets in Nashville.
Utah State Aggies
Utah State shares at least one thing in common with South Carolina, and that is the pollsters didn’t have much respect for Danny Sprinkles and the Aggies before the season got underway.
In his first season in Logan, Sprinkles proved those voters wrong by leading the Aggies to a 26-5 record for the outright Mountain West regular season title, and ended the year No. 18 in the AP and No. 32 in the latest Net Rankings.
The Aggies closed the season with five consecutive wins, and they are sitting in the No. 6 slot of Lunardi’s West Region. Their 79.0 PPG rank 40th in the country, and the Aggies held opponents to just 28.6% from beyond the arc, good for 2nd in the nation.
San Diego State Aztecs
It was such a great season for the Mountain West, that we had to include a second team from the league, especially since that team danced all the way to the National Championship Game last season.
San Diego State petered out some at the end of the regular season, losing its last two and three of its last five to slide all the way to fifth in the MWC standings heading into the league tourney. Lunardi still has the Aztecs a No. 5 seed and slotted in the South.
In what might be the most interesting college basketball pick of Championship Week, the Aztecs could meet Utah State in the semifinals of the conference tournament. The squads split home win and covers during the regular season.
This is a little different team than a year ago, with Jaedon Ledee replacing Matt Bradley as the team’s top offensive threat. But it’s the same SDSU defense that we’ve come to expect from a Brian Dutcher team, and a threat to again make it to the Final Four.
