In the 2024 NFL draft, we have great confidence in who the top picks will be, including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Marvin Harrison Jr. In fact, that could be the top 4 players taken this year.
But things get more interesting with other prospects that have a lot to offer, but for whatever reason, they are not locks to go in the top 5 picks this year.
At a top-rated sportsbook like BetOnline, they have draft betting markets for top prospects and their draft position with an over/under on where they will ultimately land. We make our choices below for those players in our latest 2024 NFL draft betting guide.
*All odds via BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
Bo Nix, Oregon QB
- Over 32.5 (-160)
- Under 32.5 (+120)
The Bo Nix we saw at Auburn would be lucky to get drafted in the 7th round for the NFL. But after he transferred to Oregon, he was prolific with 8,101 yards, 74 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in his final 2 collegiate seasons. He set an NCAA record by completing 77.4% of his passes last year.
What does a coachable quarterback with decent size and arm talent who can complete a high percentage of passes in a good offensive system sound like? Someone who would fit well in an offense coached by Sean Payton, the coach of the Denver Broncos. This team let Russell Wilson go, so quarterback is absolutely a need.
Nix to Denver?
The problem is by the time the Broncos are picking at No. 12, we will likely see 4 quarterbacks off the board with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy all projected to go that high. McCarthy could go in the top 5, and it is unlikely he will last past the Vikings at No. 11.
Would the Broncos use the No. 12 pick on Nix? That is unlikely. In fact, the odds for Nix have swung to over 32.5 and falling out of the 1st round in favor of Michael Penix Jr. (Washington) being the 5th quarterback in this class. Remember, over 4.5 quarterbacks going in the 1st round is still the favored outcome at oddsmakers. It just might end up being Penix Jr. instead of Nix.
But what if Denver traded down from No. 12 to take Nix later in the 1st round? What if it also traded back up to get him and secure that 5th-year option in his contract by making sure he is a 1st-round pick? Another team could have a similar idea like the Giants or Raiders.
It is always fascinating to see what the NFL thinks of these quarterbacks as Will Levis went from being a favorite to go No. 4 to the Colts last year to waiting until pick No. 33 in the 2nd round to the Titans.
But there is good value in projecting Nix to land in that 1st round, so our pick is the under 32.5.
NFL Pick: Bo Nix – Under 32.5 (+120) at BetOnline
Brian Thomas Jr., LSU WR
- Over 16.5 (-200)
- Under 16.5 (+150)
Malik Nabers and Jayden Daniels get more attention from that LSU offense, but Brian Thomas Jr. is the other 1st-round prospect who should go fairly high in this draft. He is big and explosive, and he has been the consensus pick for the 4th-best wideout in this class after the big 3 of Marvin Harrison Jr., Nabers and Rome Odunze.
With the way LSU has been producing at this position in recent years with Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson, you have to figure Thomas Jr. will easily be a 1st-round pick.
However, this draft is deep at wideout and there is a gap between Thomas and the Big 3. You won’t see him get past a team like Buffalo at 28, but it is more than reasonable that teams like the Raiders (13th), Saints (14th) and Colts (15th) all pass him by in favor of building in the trenches or taking the best tight end (Brock Bowers).
Of the 8 prospects we’re looking at odds for on their draft position, Thomas Jr. has the most lopsided odds to go over. We cannot disagree with that notion, and over 16.5 should be the right NFL pick for draft night.
NFL Pick: Brian Thomas Jr. – Over 16.5 (-200) at BetOnline
Brock Bowers, Georgia TE
- Over 12.5 (+115)
- Under 12.5 (-155)
The thing to remember about tight ends is they historically have to wait in the draft. In fact, many of the greatest tight ends ever weren’t even 1st-round picks, making it unique from other key positions.
Just last year, most had Dalton Kincaid going with the No. 15 pick to Green Bay, but he ended up going No. 25 to Buffalo as the 1st tight end off the board.
Bowers is a better prospect, but the only team you could realistically slot him to in the top 11 picks is the Jets at No. 10. That might seem like a good fit, but you have to remember that Aaron Rodgers has historically loved throwing to his wide receivers. He’s never been interested in making a tight end a top priority in the passing game.
A team like the Falcons (No. 8) already has Kyle Pitts, who was the highest-drafted tight end ever in 2021 when the Falcons used the No.4 pick on him. The Bears (No. 9) already have Cole Kmet, who played very well last year. The Vikings (No. 11) have T.J. Hockenson and need a quarterback.
It should be over 12.5 for Bowers as he could end up with the Colts (No. 15). He shouldn’t last past the Bengals at No. 18.
NFL Pick: Brock Bowers – Over 12.5 (+115) at BetOnline
Byron Murphy, Texas DT
- Over 16.5 (+155)
- Under 16.5 (-220)
Defensive tackle Byron Murphy is an interesting prospect. You could see him go as high as No. 9 to the Bears, and you could see him fall into the 20s to a team like Miami (No. 21) or Dallas (No. 24).
But the placement of the line at 16.5 is understandable as Murphy should not slip past the Seahawks, who hold the No. 16 pick. We know Seattle already has a good offensive core. That pick could be used on an offensive lineman, but with new coach Mike Macdonald coming from Baltimore where he had a No. 1 defense, he is likely going to want to see a defensive player lead his 1st draft class in Seattle.
The Seahawks aren’t going to want to let Murphy slip by and go to a division rival like the Rams, who hold the No. 19 pick and need to replace the retired Aaron Donald. The Ravens had a huge year from defensive tackle Justin Madubuike under Macdonald’s coaching, and they’ll hope to get something similar out of Murphy if that’s the pick.
But don’t discount Chicago building the trenches and taking him at No. 9 too. We like the under 16.5 either way here.
NFL Pick: Byron Murphy – Under 16.5 (-220) at BetOnline
Chop Robinson, Penn State Edge
- Over 26.5 (-130)
- Under 26.5 (-110)
Chop Robinson has been drawing comparisons to Micah Parsons, another Penn State edge rusher with great speed and athleticism. But let’s not get it twisted. Parsons was more productive in college and was a better prospect at this stage of his career.
However, Robinson has real 1st-round potential in a draft class that is short on edge rushers at the top. Most would rank Robinson 4th among the edge rushers, and there will be teams picking in the 20s who could use his services this year.
Like with Byron Murphy, the line being set to 26.5 is notable since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold the No. 26 pick and Robinson may not get past them. The Bucs could really use an edge rusher after losing Shaquil Barrett in free agency. They got so much of their sack production from interior linemen and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. last year, so an improvement at edge with a speedy player like Robinson could be very appealing to coach Todd Bowles, who loves to blitz.
NFL Pick: Chop Robinson – Under 26.5 (-110) at BetOnline
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan QB
- Over 5.5 (+115)
- Under 5.5 (-155)
Is this going to be Aaron Rodgers (2005) or Will Levis (2023) all over again with a quarterback having to wait a long time to get drafted? The hype has been building for J.J. McCarthy seemingly since the college season ended as he’s done well in the Senior Bowl and combine. He continues to shoot up draft boards, and some even think he could go as high as 4th overall.
For that matter, why not 3rd overall if New England owner Robert Kraft gets the itch for another Michigan quarterback who is known as a “winner” – McCarthy was 27-1 in college – like Tom Brady was decades ago.
But the more likely move is for a quarterback-needy team to trade up to No. 5 with the Chargers to make sure they draft McCarthy before the Giants think to pull the trigger on him. Maybe the Vikings, who have a pair of 1st-round picks, or Denver will make this move.
There may be value in the over 5.5 here, but we are sticking with the idea that someone is going to be quarterback-crazed enough to take McCarthy in the top 5.
NFL Pick: J.J. McCarthy – Under 5.5 (-155) at BetOnline
Michael Penix Jr., Washington QB
- Over 32.5 (-155)
- Under 32.5 (+115)
Our earlier pick on Oregon quarterback Bo Nix was under 32.5, so you might be able to glean from that a pick of over 32.5 for Michael Penix Jr. from Washington. Of course, 6 quarterbacks in the 1st round is a possibility too, but we’ll bet against that.
Penix Jr. may have cost himself a little with an underwhelming performance in the championship game against Michigan. He should still be a high pick, but the Giants or Raiders high in the 2nd round feels like the more reasonable outcome for him.
But if a team like Denver or Minnesota really loves him, then we’ll see the potential for 1st-round selection. But our gut is going with Nix late in the 1st round and Penix high in the 2nd round.
NFL Pick: Michael Penix Jr. – Over 32.5 (-155) at BetOnline
Rome Odunze, Washington WR
- Over 8.5 (+115)
- Under 8.5 (-155)
In the NFL draft, if something makes way too much sense on paper and logically, then it probably isn’t going to happen. For draft experts and actual NFL general managers, the NFL draft is one of the ultimate exercises in confirmation bias, groupthink and randomness.
How else do you explain things like Mitch Trubisky being drafted ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen ahead of Lamar Jackson and Bill Belichick being so routinely terrible at identifying wide receiver and corner talent in the draft?
The Quarterbacks
This year, the consensus is that the top 3 picks should be quarterbacks. That’s likely going to happen as it is the most important position and there are enough of them available at the top to teams in desperate need of them.
Then the teams holding picks 4-6 are all favored to go with wide receivers, and there is a deserving trio of them in Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. All those teams need a No. 1 wide receiver too as the Cardinals lost Marquise Brown, the Chargers lost Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and the Giants haven’t had a true No. 1 receiver in years.
The vast majority of people think Harrison Jr. is the cream of the crop and will go to the Cardinals at No. 4. That’s fine. But the Chargers are not a lock to take a wide receiver at No. 5 and could even trade that pick.
The Giants are likely to take a wide receiver, but they may very well value Nabers over Odunze. That’s the only team to worry about for betting the over here as the Giants could certainly screw it up by taking Odunze instead at No. 6.
Expect the Unexpected
But the Titans (No. 7) are not likely taking a wideout after paying for Calvin Ridley in free agency. The Falcons (No. 8) already have Drake London and other young talent at the skill positions. They need defense more than anything.
You could see Odunze going to the Bears (No. 9) or Jets (No. 10). But regardless of where he lands, we just laid out a realistic scenario where he doesn’t go in the top 8, which instead should feature 4 quarterbacks, 2 wideouts (Harrison Jr. and Nabers), maybe Notre Dame left tackle Joe Alt, and a pass rusher like Dallas Turner.
A draft starting so neatly as QB-QB-QB-WR-WR-WR just feels like fan fiction. It’s not the reality of how NFL teams operate, so we’ll take the even odds that Odunze is the receiver who slips out of the top 8.
For reference, you could always hedge and take Odunze to go No. 6 at +350 odds at BetOnline. But we’ll take our chances that he goes over 8.5 in this draft.
NFL Pick: Rome Odunze – Over 8.5 (+115) at BetOnline
