The 2024 NFL draft should fuel arguments for years after so many records fell with the way teams loaded up on offensive players in this class. The following records were set in the 2024 draft’s opening round:
- The most quarterbacks ever drafted in the top 12 picks (6).
- The most consecutive offensive players taken to start a draft (14; previous record was 7).
- The only time in the history of the NFL draft where 14 straight picks were used on one side of the ball (offense).
- The most offensive players drafted in the 1st round in the common draft era (23; previous record was 19).
A lot of expectations will fall on these offensive players. As we know in the NFL, offense does move the needle more for winning games, and no position moves it more than the quarterback position.
With that in mind, we wanted to look at some early NFL betting lines from top NFL sportsbooks to see what impact these 2024 draft picks are having to influence the lines this season for things like playoff odds, team win totals, and prop picks.
We focused on offense as individual defenders rarely move the needle, and that should especially be true for a draft class where the whole league waited 15 picks before anyone took a defender.
Chicago Bears: QB Caleb Williams and WR Rome Odunze
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Bears in the 2024 NFL season:
- Chicago Bears Over 8.5 Wins (-175) at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
- Chicago Bears to Make the Playoffs – Yes (-125) at BetOnline
- Caleb Williams Over 22.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada (check our Bovada Review)
- Rome Odunze Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-115) at BetOnline
- Rome Odunze Under 700.5 Receiving Yards (-145) at BetOnline
There is a surprising amount of hype for the Chicago offense despite Caleb Williams being a rookie quarterback. Granted, he is walking into the best situation any quarterback drafted No. 1 overall ever has in the Super Bowl era, but this is still a lofty goal for a team that may be 3rd at best in the NFC North behind Detroit and Green Bay.
Andrew Luck is still the only quarterback drafted No. 1 overall to win more than 7 starts as a rookie, but the over/under for the Bears is strongly favoring over 8.5 wins right now with a slightly better than 50% shot at the playoffs.
Offensive Weapons and Potential
Williams is clearly not doing it alone. He has D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen as his top receivers, and the Bears even did the unorthodox move to draft Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick, potentially giving Williams a trio of receivers with No. 1 potential.
Even if Odunze is playing behind Moore and Allen for targets, oddsmakers still like him to contribute around a handful of touchdowns and near 700 yards. Those would be pretty incredible numbers for a rookie WR3 with a rookie passer.
Rome Odunze with the sweet footwork drill being coached by DJ Moore. #DaBears
pic.twitter.com/pnMECHTCjr— Ben Devine (@Chicago_NFL) June 12, 2024
Coaching Challenges
It almost feels like we may be hyping the Bears too much at this point in 2024. The pieces are seemingly falling into place, but this coaching staff still has to prove it can figure things out and get better results than what we’ve seen so far under Matt Eberflus.
This could still be an 8-win team (at best) in need of some improvements to get over the hump and back to the playoffs in 2025.
Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Commanders in the 2024 NFL season:
- Washington Commanders Under 6.5 Wins (-125) at BetOnline
- Jayden Daniels Under 13.5 Interceptions (-125) at BetOnline
- Jayden Daniels Over 550.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetOnline
The Commanders are favored to not be a contender this year following a 4-13 season that cleaned house at head coach and quarterback. Now we’ll see if Dan Quinn can do a better job than he did in Atlanta with a new rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
But Daniels is going to have to prove he can be durable in the NFL and not get injured on wild runs. Bookmakers have him projected for a line of 550.5 rushing yards, which would be very substantial yardage for a rookie quarterback who is a dual threat.
But if he is running that often and still has an interception line around 13 picks, then that sounds like a mistake-prone quarterback who is going to struggle to put up wins in Year 1 on a team that also had a poor defense last year.
Baby steps in Washington.
New England Patriots: QB Drake Maye and WR Ja’Lynn Polk
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Patriots in the 2024 NFL season:
- New England Patriots Over 4.5 Wins (-165) at BetOnline
The Patriots are favored to get to 5 wins this year after a brutal 4-13 season proved to be the end for Bill Belichick and quarterback Mac Jones in New England. Now we’ll see what rookie coach Jerod Mayo and North Carolina rookie quarterback Drake Maye can do.
The Patriots still do not have a great supporting cast for their quarterback. They drafted wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk high in the 2nd round to grow with Maye, but it’s not like he has established wideouts as veterans on his side.
Ja’Lynn Polk and DeMario Douglas make these wide receiver drills look so smooth.
(🎥 @DakRandall) | #Patriotspic.twitter.com/a5HIS7DFtT— Carlos Talks Pats (@LosTalksPats) June 12, 2024
The defense could be solid enough to keep a 5-12 finish within reason, but it is hard not to imagine Maye will struggle and play a lot of hero ball in trying to keep up with all the great quarterbacks in the AFC.
Arizona Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Cardinals in the 2024 NFL season:
- Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5 Wins (-180) at BetOnline
- Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 1000.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at BetOnline
Expectations are high for the Cardinals to nearly double last year’s win total after a 4-13 finish. Kyler Murray lost Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore, but the team drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. with the No. 4 pick, the top-rated wideout in this class for most.
Expectations are high for Harrison Jr., who has a receiving line around 1,000 yards. That’s the kind of number that could easily put him in the Offensive Rookie of the Year conversation, especially if he has the touchdowns to match.
Murray will be happy to have another reliable target again as Harrison Jr. figures to carry his father’s consistency and smooth routes into the NFL. He should see plenty of targets in 2024.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is here to SNATCH those Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. pic.twitter.com/uPMPNsJF3e
— PHNX Cardinals (@PHNX_Cardinals) June 11, 2024
Minnesota Vikings: QB J.J. McCarthy and Edge Dallas Turner
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Vikings in the 2024 NFL season:
- Minnesota Vikings Under 7.5 Wins (-150) at BetOnline
- Minnesota Vikings to Make the Playoffs – No (-300) at BetOnline
- J.J. McCarthy Over 17.5 Touchdown Passes (-115) at Bovada
- Dallas Turner Under 7 Sacks (-120) at BetOnline
The Vikings were the only team to trade up in the first 2 dozen picks in the draft this year. They targeted quarterback J.J. McCarthy and edge rusher Dallas Turner. That was not surprising after an offseason where they lost Kirk Cousins (Falcons) and Danielle Hunter (Texans) to high-priced contracts in free agency.
Are McCarthy and Turner as good? Maybe down the road, but it’s very unlikely these rookies can contribute that much in 2024 to get the Vikings back in the playoffs in a tough division. Turner’s not even favored to get 7 sacks, so that’s not a promising outlook for him to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.
For that matter, McCarthy is not a lock to start in Week 1 as the team also signed Sam Darnold this offseason. McCarthy has Justin Jefferson to throw to, but his touchdown pass line is still just 17.5. If he’s not destined to start Week 1, that could be a nice under to take right now.
Los Angeles Chargers: OT Joe Alt and WR Ladd McConkey
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Chargers in the 2024 NFL season:
- Los Angeles Chargers Over 8.5 Wins (-145) at BetOnline
- Los Angeles Chargers to Make the Playoffs – Yes (-110) at BetOnline
- Ladd McConkey Over 60.5 Receptions (-130) at BetOnline
- Ladd McConkey Under 775.5 Receiving Yards (-125) at BetOnline
The Chargers could look drastically different this year after letting go of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett. Those players only account for 57.3% of the passing yards Justin Herbert has accumulated in his NFL career.
Key Additions
But with Jim Harbaugh in town as the new head coach, it’s not like the Chargers are never going to throw the ball anymore. They used the No. 5 pick on top left tackle prospect Joe Alt from Notre Dame, which should bolster the running game and give Herbert a blindside protector for years to come.
The Chargers also traded up in the 2nd round to get wideout Ladd McConkey from Georgia. The hope is he can grow into a No. 1 quickly for Herbert, who is badly in need of a new go-to receiver. McConkey is not expected to go over 775.5 yards, but if he’s getting over 60 catches, that could still happen for this offense that is definitely going to look different than what we’ve seen before with Herbert.
But can it be more efficient with a balanced rushing attack and a better defense that leads to fewer shootouts and forced throws from Herbert? Yes, that’s the plan. If Harbaugh can fix that part of the team, then it’s easy to like the Chargers for a winning record and probably the playoffs this year.
Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Bills in the 2024 NFL season:
- Buffalo Bills Under 10.5 Wins (-140) at BetOnline
- Keon Coleman Under 4.5 Receiving TDs (-130) at BetOnline
- Keon Coleman Under 775.5 Receiving Yards (-140) at BetOnline
The Bills are another team who let go of their top wideouts by trading Stefon Diggs to Houston and watching Gabe Davis head to Jacksonville in free agency. It’s a bold strategy, but the Bills figure they have one of the best quarterbacks in Josh Allen, who is developed this far into his career to where he shouldn’t need Diggs to play at a high level.
But will he get by with a rookie like Keon Coleman as his new No. 1 wideout? The top receiving target in Buffalo these days actually could be 2nd-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, who had a nice rookie year and should have much higher expectations in 2024 with all the lost production in the receiving room.
But Coleman is an interesting case as he ran slowly at the combine and lacks the speed of some of the top-end wideouts in this class. He has size to give them something similar to Davis, but his receiving lines are a little underwhelming (4.5 touchdowns and 775.5 receiving yards) if he is to be the new No. 1 in Buffalo.
Tough Competition Ahead
The Bills also face some of the stiffest competition in the division yet with the Dolphins on their heels and the Jets planning to have Aaron Rodgers this time. Buffalo is favored to finish under 10.5 wins, which would be the team’s worst record since Allen’s rookie year.
After winning the AFC East the last 4 years and still not reaching the Super Bowl once, we’ll see if the Bills have peaked or if they still have something left in them. Replacing Diggs with Coleman has to go well for that to happen.
Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix
Here are some notable betting lines involving the Broncos in the 2024 NFL season:
Finally, the Broncos are favored to go over 5.5 wins, but it could be a rough rebuilding year after the team pulled the plug on Russell Wilson, eating a record $85 million in dead cap money the next 2 years because of that decision. They also traded away disappointing wide receiver Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland.
The Broncos drafted Bo Nix with the No. 12 pick after some thought he’d easily fall to the 2nd round in this class. Maybe that was the pick all along for Denver, and maybe the team panicked after the Falcons went nutty and drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick after already giving Kirk Cousins the biggest contract in free agency.
Sean Payton’s Challenge
This will be interesting since we have not really seen Sean Payton coach a young quarterback. When he went to New Orleans, he had a 6th-year veteran and Pro Bowler in Drew Brees. After Brees retired, Payton was working with a veteran like Jameis Winston, then he had Russell Wilson in Denver last year.
Nix might be a good fit as a system quarterback for Payton. After all, he set the single-season record for completion percentage in college football last year at Oregon. That sounds like something Drew Brees would do.
Bo Nix on the completion percentage record:
“It was hard not to think about it because you’re so close to something that you worked so hard for… The completion percentage is important because it speaks to a lot of people… Everybody that the ball’s thrown to, they’ve gotta… pic.twitter.com/ocbwWAWviZ— Brenna Greene (@BrennaGreene_) January 2, 2024
But Nix is unlikely going to be Brees in the NFL. Still, it will be fun to see if Payton can bolster his Hall of Fame resume and develop a young quarterback from scratch for a change.
Someone who isn’t a Swiss Army knife like Taysom Hill either.
