The NFL’s free agency period is almost here, which usually means a spending spree for some teams trying to become contenders, and maybe a smart move (or 2) for a contender that does not break the bank.
But with the NFL’s salary cap going up a record $30.6 million for each team this year, expect some big deals to go down in March before we get to April’s draft.
We are looking at the top 5 players to watch in this free agency period. As always, quarterback is the most important position followed by the players who rush the quarterback on defense. If you can’t get either of those, you go for the receiver they throw the ball to or the corner who has to cover that receiver.
Teams like the Chiefs and Vikings especially have some crucial decisions to make this month, but since these players are all unrestricted free agents, let the bidding wars for their services begin.
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5 DE Danielle Hunter
Shout out to Baltimore defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who made himself a fortune with 13 sacks in a breakout year last season. While a lot of people like the defensive tackle as a top free agent, buyer beware on someone who didn’t break out until Year 4 in the system of a defensive coordinator (Mike Macdonald) who left for the Seahawks. Chances are you don’t have Aaron Donald there or it would have shown up sooner on the field.
That is why our No. 5 pick is defensive end Danielle Hunter. He will turn 30 in October, but he is coming off a career-high 16.5 sacks. He led the NFL with 23 tackles for loss in 2023. His 41 pressures were the most he’s had in any season since 2018 according to Pro Football Reference.
Last season, Hunter did this in a new scheme under coordinator Brian Flores. He has proven he can perform at a high level as a 4-3 defensive end in Mike Zimmer’s defense as well as a 3-4 edge rusher.
Hunter could be a great addition to a team that’s looking for a big edge rusher to step up to the playoffs. He also could work out as a bookend to team up with someone established and make the team even better like Aidan Hutchinson with Detroit.
4 CB L’Jarius Sneed
Why was it so hard for a team to repeat as Super Bowl champions for 20 years before the Chiefs finally did it this year? You lose too many good parts when you win a Super Bowl. Teams want your players, they want your coaching assistants, and they want to copy what you did. With a player getting their ring, bigger money is too tempting to pass up.
Someone like corner L’Jarius Sneed would be the classic example of a free agent who leaves his Super Bowl-winning team behind for a massive contract somewhere else. But the Chiefs are going to have a tough decision as this is not their only big free agent to keep on that defense (scroll down for that guy).
Two potential suitors have emerged should the #Chiefs decide to trade L’Jarius Sneed according to Dov Kleiman. pic.twitter.com/nmT0cfBThM
— Starcade Media (@StarcadeMediaKC) March 4, 2024
The Chiefs only have about $3.4 million in cap space right now according to Over the Cap, but there are always little tricks to improve that number. But we’ll see what they decide to do as defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done a fantastic job of calling great defenses without having prototypical great corners. He’s never had a Richard Sherman or Darrelle Revis or Sauce Gardner type of corner.
Spagnuolo held the 2007 Patriots to 14 points in Super Bowl XLII with Corey Webster at corner. He had Charvarius Ward in Kansas City in 2019, a player the Chiefs did not bring back in 2022 thanks in part to the performance of a young Sneed, who was outstanding last year.
Sneed forced the huge fumble from Zay Flowers at the 1-yard line in the AFC Championship Game. He only allowed 4.8 yards per target in the regular season this year. To play devil’s advocate, he did allow 2 touchdowns in the playoffs after none in the regular season, but he was still great with timely plays in the postseason.
The Chiefs still have a very good corner in Trent McDuffie, but keeping Sneed and McDuffie together gives the Chiefs such a strong duo. You just know if the Chiefs can’t make it work, another team is going to jump on the opportunity for a 27-year-old corner who just won back-to-back championships.
3 DE Josh Allen
No, not the quarterback in Buffalo. He’s not going anywhere for the time being. We’ll see if the same is true for defensive end Josh Allen, who the Jaguars got with the No. 7 pick in the 2019 draft.
It’s been an interesting ride as Allen was a Pro Bowler as a rookie with 10.5 sacks. But he didn’t spark as much in 2020-22 outside of his monster game in 2021 when he faced Allen, his namesake, and the Bills and was everywhere on the field.
But in 2023, Allen stepped up again and had 17.5 sacks. He had 17 sacks in 2020-22 combined. They did sometimes come in bunches with 3 games of 3 sacks in 2023, but he also had a career-high 46 pressures.
Edge rushers get paid the big bucks, so it will be interesting to see what the Jaguars do here. Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft, stepped up and had 10.5 sacks last year. That might make Allen a little more expandable, but ideally, you want both of these guys lined up as your edge rushers.
When you play in the AFC, you are facing a lot of top quarterbacks who can really move, including Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud. It would be hard to let Allen go to another team, but he is going to be expensive at just 27 years old this season and coming off a huge year.
2 QB Kirk Cousins
Captain Kirk is on the open market for a change. Cousins has made a career out of making lucrative contract moves. He became the 1st quarterback in NFL history to get the franchise tag in consecutive years in Washington in 2016-17. He pulled off a unique, fully guaranteed contract (3 years, $84 million) when he signed with the Vikings in 2018.
In 2022, Cousins signed a 1-year, fully guaranteed extension through 2023 for $35 million. But he tore his Achilles last season while he was leading the league in touchdown passes and the team was in playoff contention.
That is a tough injury to come back from when you are 36, but Cousins’ game has always been about minimal movement in the pocket and a lot of quick, accurate passes. The question is, will he actually take his family on the move and leave Justin Jefferson in Minnesota for a new team, or will he return to the Vikings?
The 2024 quarterback carousel may be waiting on Cousins as the 1st domino to fall before we see what happens with Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, etc.
The table delivers the latest on Kirk Cousins heading into free agency pic.twitter.com/lu8OlkZUEu
— Good Morning Football (@gmfb) March 4, 2024
Staying in Minnesota is certainly an option. Cousins has a good rapport with Jefferson in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. But sticking in the NFC should ultimately be the goal as you don’t want to join the AFC and have to battle through all those top quarterbacks who are still in their 20s.
In the NFC, it’s basically Dak Prescott on a Dallas team that always falls short, Jalen Hurts on a Philadelphia team that imploded last year, and Brock Purdy on a San Francisco team that has blown so many chances at a ring already. Even Cousins beat the 49ers on a Monday night last year, the night he almost never wins games.
But if Cousins feels a move to Atlanta or Tampa Bay would be too lateral of a movement, or another tenure with Washington too pointless, then we may just see him back in the purple this year.
1 T Chris Jones
Let the conspiracy theorists have at it.
“Taylor Swift made the NFL so much money last year that they increased the cap just so the Chiefs can afford to keep Chris Jones and 3-peat.”
It would at least be more plausible than the usual complaints about fixing games. The cap has increased in record amount, so that should help the Chiefs not lose both L’Jarius Sneed and Chris Jones to free agency. The defense was the most consistent part of the team last year, so they cannot lose 2 of the best players.
But if you had to pick between them, you have to keep Jones as a Chief for life, right? Corner is a notoriously volatile position where their stats can fluctuate wildly from year to year depending on how many accurate quarterbacks and great receivers they face that year. You can have horrible coverage on a play, leaving the receiver wide open, but still have it fall incomplete if the throw sails to the front row over the receiver’s head.
But a defensive tackle like Jones, who can play on the edge too, is so impactful. He has been the team’s best defender the last few years. He returned after a Week 1 holdout last year and still finished with 10.5 sacks. He equaled his 2022 total with 29 quarterback hits.
Jones turns 30 this summer, so it’s not the greatest time to break the bank on him for another contract. But he has been so vital to the team’s success that it would be hard to imagine the defense without him in 2024.
#Chiefs DE Charles Omenihu is in hopes that Chris Jones will be in KC for the rest of his career. pic.twitter.com/5PUeKlK4Wu
— Starcade Media (@StarcadeMediaKC) February 27, 2024
Jones would command a lot of interested suitors on the open market. But if his choices are down to a potential 3-peat in Kansas City or some more money while playing for a lousy team like the Bears, Titans, or Cardinals, do you really think he’d pass up on cementing his Hall of Fame bust with the Chiefs?
But if a contender came along with a big offer like the Bengals or Texans to steal Jones away from the Chiefs, or if they decide to pay Sneed instead, then this could get very interesting.
We’ll just have to see how much this extra cap space does for teams interested in keeping their best players. But there is no better time for a player to cash out then during March’s free agency in the NFL.
It is the NFL’s version of March Madness as at least 1 team should greatly overspend to snatch one of these players we highlighted.
