2024 NFL MVP Odds: Will a New Quarterback Win?

We know the 2024 NFL MVP award is almost certainly going to be won by a quarterback, the position that has won 16 of the last 17 MVP awards. 

The top 19 players in the NFL MVP odds at one of the top NFL betting sites, BetOnline are all quarterbacks. You have to scroll down to running back Christian McCaffrey at +5000 to find a non-quarterback.

But which quarterback is going to win MVP in 2024?

We technically haven’t seen a new MVP winner since Lamar Jackson in 2019. Jackson won it again last year, Patrick Mahomes (2018 MVP) won his 2nd MVP in 2022, and Aaron Rodgers won his 3rd and 4th MVP awards in 2020-21.

That’s 4 straight seasons without a new MVP winner, an NFL record. Maybe this is just an era dominated by a few players as Mahomes and the Chiefs look for the 1st Super Bowl 3-peat this year, and Rodgers is also back with the Jets as he looks to tie Peyton Manning with a 5th MVP award.

But we are thinking it’s time for someone new to win this season. Let’s see what the top-rated sportsbooks have for the current 2024 NFL MVP odds as we start to build our strategy.

The Type of Quarterback That Usually Wins NFL MVP Awards

We know quarterbacks dominate the MVP award in the NFL, but it’s a certain type of quarterback season that often wins.

For instance, you will not see someone with inefficient stats still find a way to drag a team to a 10-7 record (wild card berth) and walk away with an MVP for that season. It just doesn’t happen.

The NFL MVP award is basically the “Quarterback with Great Stats on a Very Good Team That Wins a Lot of Games” award.

Since 1978, the start of the 16-game era, a quarterback has won 36 MVP awards, including a couple of seasons with a tie. Here are the facts about those 36 seasons:

• The quarterback played for a No. 1 seed 75% of the time (27 of 36).
• Since 2009, MVP quarterbacks came from a No. 1 seed in 12-of-14 seasons.
• Only 2-of-36 times (5.6%) did an MVP quarterback not play for a top 3 seed, and those were both No. 5 seeds who still won 12 games (2003 Steve McNair and 2008 Peyton Manning).
• The MVP quarterback played on a team with at least 12 wins in 31-of-36 seasons (86.1%).
• The only quarterback to win MVP with fewer than 11 team wins was John Elway (1987 Broncos were 10-4-1), and that was a strike-shortened season.

Quarterbacks on high seeds have an inherent advantage to win MVP. You almost have to win your division if you expect to win MVP as a quarterback.

You also need to be on an elite offense. The last 26 quarterbacks to win MVP all played on offenses that ranked in the top 5 in points per drive scored.

Finally, rookie quarterbacks are players you want to fade for MVP. The only rookie quarterback to ever win MVP was Bob Waterfield in 1945. That was when the Rams were still in Cleveland, the NFL had 10 teams, and the MVP award was called the Joe F. Carr Trophy.

The Favorite: Patrick Mahomes (+600 at BetOnline)

We know Patrick Mahomes is coming off the worst statistical season of his career, but that’s what happens when your receivers lead the league in dropped passes. He still showed in the playoffs he can win a Super Bowl when the mistakes stop happening around him.

But if Mahomes is going to be a 3-time MVP, does that mean his even-odd year split continues in 2024?

• 2018: He threw 50 touchdown passes and won MVP.
• 2019: He threw 26 touchdowns and missed a couple of games with a dislocated kneecap.
• 2020: He threw 38 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, led the NFL with 316.0 yards per game, and was in the MVP race.
• 2021: He had a half-season slump and finished No. 5 in QBR.
• 2022: He led the league in passing yards (5,250) and touchdown passes (41) even without Tyreek Hill to win his 2nd MVP.
• 2023: He had career worsts in TD% (4.5%), INT% (2.3%), yards per attempt (7.0), passer rating (92.6), and QBR (63.1).

With the Chiefs going for a Super Bowl 3-peat in 2024, he might be primed for a dominant even-numbered year again. Andy Reid and Travis Kelce are back, they added Marquise Brown in free agency, drafted speedy Xavier Worthy in the 1st round, and we’ll see if Rashee Rice can stop committing crimes in Texas and avoid a serious suspension.

The offense around Mahomes should be stronger this year, and he is still the best player in the game, so it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he had another MVP-worthy season.

Fade the J’s: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts

Some of the usual suspects who are again MVP favorites have the following odds from BetOnline:

• Josh Allen, Bills (+800)
• Joe Burrow, Bengals (+1200)
• Jalen Hurts, Eagles (+1400)
• Justin Herbert, Chargers (+2000)

Even though it contradicts the “Most Valuable” part of the award, a lot of MVP seasons happen when a quarterback is surrounded by improved talent. You could even say that about the all-time greats when they won their 1st MVP, including Joe Montana (1989), Peyton Manning (2003), Tom Brady (2007), and Aaron Rodgers (2010).

That’s why we are fading these 4 quarterbacks for MVP in 2024, because they appear to have lost much more than they gained this season.

Josh Allen

Josh Allen lost Stefon Diggs (traded to Houston) and Gabe Davis (Jaguars). He has a new rookie receiver in Keon Coleman, but that’s a tough sell that he’ll be able to replace Diggs in Year 1. Allen also saw his passing numbers drop once new coordinator Joe Brady took over halfway through 2023, and the Bills are hardly a lock to win 12 games or the division again, the usual standards for MVP seasons.

How will Buffalo #Bills superstar QB Josh Allen preform without his “sidekick” Stefon Diggs?

STAT PREDICTIONS BELLOW ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/HdiTHqpp16

— Trendfootball (@trendfootball16) May 3, 2024

Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow needs to prove he can stay healthy and complete a season. Jake Browning had better numbers than he did in various areas last year. Burrow also lost his big slot receiver (Tyler Boyd), so it is hard to say this is still the best wide receiver trio in the league. He lost Joe Mixon in the backfield and will have to adjust to a promotion at offensive coordinator after Brian Callahan went to Tennessee. There’s also the fact that Burrow still takes too many sacks and doesn’t have elite advanced stats that usually coincide with MVP seasons.

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts is still lacking in a quality No. 3 receiver as the team signed DeVante Parker, who is terrible at creating separation. The team also acquired Saquon Barkley in the backfield, so we could see more carries and less passing, making it harder for him to accumulate MVP statistics. We also need to see how Hurts handles the retirement of center Jason Kelce, and if the Tush Push, their safety net play, is going to be just as effective behind someone different.

Justin Herbert

Herbert could very well see career highs in efficiency stats in 2024 thanks to new coach Jim Harbaugh hopefully improving the defense and bringing a better rushing attack to help Herbert not have to play hero ball. But that also means less passing volume for Herbert, and he just lost 57% of his career passing yards with the losses of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett. At least the team drafted Ladd McConkey for him, but the Chargers are going to look very different offensively, and they still have to deal with the Chiefs in the AFC West.

Remember, only 2 quarterbacks on wild card teams have won MVP since 1978, and they both still played for 12-win teams. The Chargers do not have great playoff odds right now, let alone taking the division in Harbaugh’s 1st year.

Fresh Blood: C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love

The best picks for some new blood at MVP come courtesy of 1st-time starters last year who both won a playoff game and are giving their teams hope for a bright future:

• C.J. Stroud, Texans (+900)
• Jordan Love, Packers (+1200)

Stroud had the Texans in the playoffs way ahead of expectations after he threw for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He led the NFL in passing yards per game (273.9) and lowest interception rate (1.0%). He was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

After finally taking over for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Jordan Love overcame a bumpy start with the youngest offense in the league and finished on an MVP-type run to make the playoffs. Over the last 8 games of the regular season, Love completed 70.3% of his passes, averaged 268.8 yards per game, and he threw 18 touchdowns to 1 interception with a 112.7 passer rating.

In the playoffs, both quarterbacks threw for over 270 yards and 3 touchdowns in big wins against defenses that were supposed to be great in Cleveland and Dallas.

Stroud’s Potential

Both are poised to improve on their 2023 season, but Stroud might have the higher ceiling and better chance of putting together an MVP season. We’ve seen some other great rookies improve in their 2nd year, including Dan Marino (1984), Ben Roethlisberger (2005), and Russell Wilson (2013).

First, Stroud got a big boost when offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik returned to the team instead of taking a head coaching job, so they’ll retain that chemistry and consistency. Stroud missed some open deep balls last year that he can work on with Slowik to correct for bigger plays this year.

That Houston system, inspired by concepts from Kyle Shanahan’s offense in San Francisco, absolutely works. The Texans became the 1st offense in NFL history last year to have 3 receivers have multiple games with 140 receiving yards. Nico Collins was one of those guys as the No. 1 receiver, and Tank Dell was another who will be back from injury and is no longer a rookie.

The other was Noah Brown, who is back, but he can take the claim of being the league’s best No. 4 wide receiver. The Texans traded for Stefon Diggs from Buffalo. While he had a weak finish to 2023, he still has a lot of skill and can make this the best wide receiver trio in the NFL in 2024. They also have a solid tight end in Dalton Schutlz and added Joe Mixon to the backfield. Barring injuries, Stroud should have up to 5 good options to throw to on every play.

Improved Defense

The Texans will also look to improve on defense after adding pass rusher Danielle Hunter. How can a defense help a quarterback in an MVP race? You can play with more leads, take fewer risks, boost your efficiency stats, and win more games.

Finally, while the AFC is the tougher conference, winning it would look more impressive for Stroud and Houston. The Texans are also favored to win their division (-110 at BetOnline) while the Packers (+175) are a slight underdog behind Detroit to win the NFC North.

The stars are aligned for a huge Stroud season in 2024. In fact, a Texans-Packers Super Bowl would be fun to watch, but both still have a lot to prove before we can start expecting that.

The Repeaters: Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers

Last year, we loved the MVP odds on Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers, which look similar this year with Jackson at +1400 and Rodgers at +2000.

However, Rodgers is going to be 41 years old, tore his Achilles after 4 plays in 2023, and we haven’t seen him have a great season since 2021. We still don’t know if he’s going to be good with the Jets, who had a bad offensive line last year. It should be better this season, but Rodgers might be damaged goods by now.

As for Jackson, some people don’t like to hear this, but the truth is he won MVP by default last year. It was statistically one of the weakest MVP seasons in history as he didn’t even have 30 total touchdowns in a 17-game season. He won because everyone else took themselves out of the race, including Brock Purdy when he threw 4 interceptions on Christmas night against that Baltimore defense.

Also, it seems contradictory to think the Ravens adding Derrick Henry will take their offense to the next level and that Jackson should be MVP again for that reason. Sounds like the value-added part to this offense, if it all works out, would be Henry. Meanwhile, Jackson needs to get better as a passer if the Ravens are ever going to get to a Super Bowl, and turning to Henry on the ground also feels like a contradiction for that.

Jackson was already gifted an MVP last year. Let’s not make that mistake again in 2024.

The Longshots

Finally, we wanted to highlight some quarterbacks with odds that would make them longshots, but there could be a compelling case for them.

Brock Purdy, 49ers (+2000)

Blame it on being Mr. Irrelevant, the proven success of Kyle Shanahan’s system, and the incredible talent the 49ers had, but few like to give Brock Purdy credit. The numbers he had last year as the 49ers won the No. 1 seed would have led to MVP votes in past years for any other quarterback.

Brock Purdy proved why he belongs in the league this year:

-Came back from elbow surgery
-Finished top 5 in Pass YDS, TDs & passer RTG
-Led Niners to No. 1 seed & SB app.
-Named to 1st Pro Bowl & MVP finalist

Mr. ̶I̶r̶r̶e̶l̶e̶v̶a̶n̶t̶ Relevant. Future is bright for QB1 in the… pic.twitter.com/VKChWeLH3E

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 12, 2024

But when Purdy threw 4 interceptions against the Ravens on Christmas, that killed any shot he had of winning the award. Still, he advanced to the Super Bowl where he became the 1st quarterback in NFL history to lead 3 go-ahead drives in the 4th quarter and overtime and still lose a playoff game.

Maybe Purdy’s peak year will be 2023, but the 49ers still have great talent at all positions, they still have the edges in Shanahan’s system, and Purdy showed he can do this over a full season already. He just needs to avoid the late-season dud in prime time, which is a shame because he was spectacular earlier in the season in bigger games against the Cowboys and Eagles for control of the NFC.

Matthew Stafford, Rams (+2500)

Matthew Stafford has never won an MVP, but he was definitely high in the MVP odds in 2021, his 1st season with Sean McVay and the Rams. Stafford also ended 2023 on a high note with 17 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, and a 110 passer rating over the final 7 games (playoffs included).

The Rams really seemed to figure things out offensively with Puka Nacua having a record-breaking rookie season, and Kyren Williams was the best lead back for the Rams since Todd Gurley was in his prime. They also still have Cooper Kupp.

Stafford could be a dark horse pick, especially if the 49ers were to take a step back and the Rams find a way to win the NFC West again in a 12-5 type of season.

The Sophomore Surprises

We mentioned C.J. Stroud’s potential going into his 2nd season, but what about the other quarterbacks from his draft class in the same boat? These would all be longshots, but there is something to consider here for:

• Anthony Richardson, Colts (+2500)
• Will Levis, Titans (+10000)
• Bryce Young, Panthers (+15000)

Anthony Richardson needs to prove he can stay healthy, because last year was alarmingly bad with him leaving multiple games to different injuries before having season-ending surgery. If he does, he has a good offensive coach in Shane Steichen, he has a running game with Jonathan Taylor, he has a No. 1 wideout in Michael Pittman Jr., and they may have drafted a steal in Adonai Mitchell in Round 2. Richardson just needs to stay on the field.

Will Levis has a new offensive coach in Brian Callahan, a new running back in Tony Pollard, a new left tackle in J.C. Latham, and a new receiver in Calvin Ridley. His 14-point comeback in Miami late last year provided some hope that he can be the guy, but we’ll see if he can take a huge leap forward this season with improvements around him.

Bryce Young has some new receiving talent around him in Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette (rookie). The Panthers also upgraded at running back with Jonathon Brooks. The division remains winnable. Most importantly, they hired Dave Canales, the coach who just helped Geno Smith (2022) and Baker Mayfield (2023) to career years. He’s hoping to have a Sean McVay effect on Young like what happened for Jared Goff in 2017 with the Rams.

Dave Canales doing warm ups with the Rooks today at the 1st day of Rookie minicamp. pic.twitter.com/eMXFfT3YbS

— Carolina Blitz (@KeepBlitzin) May 10, 2024

MVP is probably a big stretch, but if it happens for any of these guys this year, at least we know there was logic behind it. Too bad we can’t bet on a quarterback to make the Pro Bowl, because these would all be better picks for that this season.

The Pick (Plus a Warning)

We won’t begrudge anyone for backing Patrick Mahomes at +600 for MVP. If anything, the last 2 seasons have shown you should not bet against Mahomes.

But the warning we want to put out there for everyone is that the NFL’s 2024 schedule has not been released yet. That could play a huge role in determining the winner of the MVP as it did in 2021 and 2023.

We see it a bit with the Heisman Trophy in the college game, and we have definitely seen it in recent years in the NFL MVP race with voters putting a huge emphasis on a game that takes place late in the season, especially if it’s in front of a national audience.

That’s what happened in 2021 when Tom Brady basically blew his MVP campaign on Sunday Night Football when he lost 9-0 to the Saints. Last year, it was Brock Purdy handing control over to Lamar Jackson after Purdy threw 4 picks on Christmas.

Look out for the Texans-Chiefs Game

Without seeing the schedule yet, we are making our pick largely based on who we think will have the stats, the wins, and the signature moments this season.

There is going to be a Houston at Kansas City game this season. It could be Week 1 (opening night), it could be Week 3 at 4:25 p.m., or it could be the Sunday night game in Week 16 with home-field advantage on the line. We don’t know yet.

The winning quarterback in that game could have the inside track to MVP, especially if it is late in the season. That’s really not the best way to judge this award, but it’s what the oddsmakers and voters are doing these days, so we have to understand that.

Final Pick

If Stroud pulls off a great upset in Arrowhead in Week 3, people just aren’t going to rate it as highly if it came late in the season. That’s just where things are these days.

So, with the schedule warning aside, we are going with Stroud as our top pick. He has a lot of room for improvement from last year, which was already a stellar rookie season, and he should have an even better receiving corps around him this year. A potentially tough schedule could be the problem, but we’ll revisit that when we see it in full form.

It may be Mahomes’ league, but the MVP should finally go to someone new this year.

NFL Pick: 2024 NFL MVP – C.J. Stroud (+900) at BetOnline