There are only 2 gubernatorial elections scheduled for 2025 in the states of New Jersey and Virginia. The New Jersey election to determine a new governor is taking place on November 4, 2025.
Primary elections were just held on June 10, 2025. The November ballot should pit Democratic congresswoman Mikie Sherrill against Republican and ex-state assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, who also won the Republican nomination in 2021.
Before heading to the betting sites, let’s look at the latest odds on which party is likely to win the New Jersey governorship in November, and some background info on the state’s voting dynamics and the winning candidates from the primary elections.
Why Is New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy Getting Replaced in 2025?
By state law, a New Jersey governor cannot hold office for more than 2 consecutive terms, so Governor Phil Murphy (Democrat), the incumbent, will be replaced by November’s winner.
Murphy received 56% of the vote when he won the seat in 2017, then he narrowly defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli in 2021 to win a 2nd term, receiving 51.2% of the vote to 48% for Ciattarelli.
Which Party Does New Jersey Usually Vote for?
New Jersey is a reliable Democratic state, but the margins have tightened during President Donald Trump’s reign as the leader of the Republican party. This being 1-of-2 gubernatorial elections in 2025, it is being closely watched as it could be a sign of how voters feel about the 2 parties after nearly a year of the latest Trump administration.
But Democrat Kamala Harris only won New Jersey in the 2024 presidential election by 5.9 points, a considerable decline from Joe Biden’s 16-point victory over Trump in the 2020 election.
However, New Jersey has a strong history of electing a governor from the party opposite of the sitting president, which would be another Democrat in this case. With that said, New Jersey has not elected the same party as governor for more than 2 consecutive terms since 1965, but we are in rare times with Trump becoming the 1st United States president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in the late 19th century.
Democratic Primary: Who Is Mikie Sherrill?
Mikie Sherrill, 53, is a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor. She is currently a U.S. representative from New Jersey’s 11th congressional district, a role she’s served since 2019. She just won a contested Democratic primary, one that Senator Corey Booker declined to run in as he mulls a run for president in 2028.
Sherrill won the Democratic nomination for governor with 34% of the vote. She was the only woman in a 6-candidate race, beating out the likes of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka (20.4%) and Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop (15.9%).
Sherrill is a progressive Democrat in a New Jersey where property taxes, affordable housing, and immigration are key issues for voters.
Republican Primary: Who Is Jack Ciattarelli?
Jack Ciattarelli, 63, is a well-known politician in New Jersey where he served in the New Jersey General Assembly from 2011 to 2018. He already ran for governor in 2017 and 2021, just narrowly losing by 3.2 points to Murphy and the Democrats.
Ciattarelli was the Trump-backed candidate in the Republican primary, which he won with 67.8% of the vote. He had a significant edge in fundraising, name recognition, and the support of Trump. He also held a 63% favorability rating among Trump supporters in the state.
Ciattarelli wants tax cuts and government efficiency, mirroring many of the promises from the Trump administration.
Who Likely Wins the New Jersey Governorship in November?
While some think this could be a close election in November due to the way Ciattarelli has Trump’s endorsement and almost won in 2021, the betting markets do not see it as such in June 2025.
According to the odds from BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review), the Democrats have -600 odds to win the governorship compared to +425 for the Republicans. That’s an implied chance of 85.7% for Sherrill and the Democrats to win.
The betting site Polymarket sees a slightly less favorable outcome for the Democrats, but it’s still holding strong at 80% for Sherrill and 20% for Ciattarelli.
Plenty of things can happen with 5 months to go as the 2024 presidential election proved. But for now, it looks like Sherrill and the Democrats should win this one as Ciattarelli’s close association with Trump could hurt him at the polls in November if current trends persist. Trump’s national approval rating is currently around 45%, which is among the lowest for presidents at this stage of their term.
