The NFL Coach of the Year award rarely goes to the league’s best team anymore. Voters now reward coaches who surpass expectations, which is why big names like Andy Reid have long odds—and newcomers like Ben Johnson are favored. With the 2025 season ahead, we’re breaking down the top candidates according to the top sportsbooks and recent award trends. Who’s worth a bet, and who’s overhyped? Let’s take a closer look.
NFL Coach of the Year Award Facing Scrutiny
If there is an NFL award that is starting to get some backlash to how it’s voted on, it might be the Coach of the Year award. It no longer seems to be about winning at the highest level, which is why several coaches of the teams expected to be the best in the NFL this year have some of the lowest odds to win the award for 2025.
Does it really make sense that all of these coaches have +7000 odds to win Coach of the Year in 2025 according to the latest odds from Bovada Review?
- Andy Reid (Chiefs)
- Nick Sirianni (Eagles)
- John Harbaugh (Ravens)
- Sean McDermott (Bills)
Maybe in the case of Sirianni, you could argue he has the best roster, the defending champs, and that makes his job much easier. But if the Eagles were to finish 15-2 and look even more dominant this season, shouldn’t sustaining that performance from your players deserve some respect?
Coach of the Year Rewards Overachievers, Not Consistent Winners
Instead, the award has largely turned into one that goes to the coaches who defy preseason expectations the most.
Think of Brian Daboll (Giants) winning the award by 4 first-place votes over Kyle Shanahan (49ers) in 2022. The Giants had a preseason win total of 7.5 and finished 9-8 to make the playoffs thanks to a 6-1 start with a lot of close wins. Meanwhile, the 49ers were coming off an NFC Championship Game loss, but they still rallied from a 3-4 start to finish 13-4 after losing 2 quarterbacks (Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo) to season-ending injuries, prompting Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy) to take over.
Yet that wasn’t good enough for enough voters to award a coach who otherwise gets credit for being an “offensive genius” that’s influenced many coaches getting hired now. It’s a weird award in that way, and 2022 isn’t an outlier.
All-Time Greats Often Overlooked
We hear how great of a coach Andy Reid is, yet he’s only won the award once, and that was in his 4th season in Philadelphia in 2002.
Kevin O’Connell won the award last year with a 14-3 record after Sam Darnold had to step in and have a career year out of nowhere, but even losing badly in Detroit in Week 18 with the No. 1 seed on the line wasn’t enough for O’Connell to lose it to Dan Campbell, who got the Lions to 15-2 despite a ton of defensive injuries. O’Connell beat Campbell by 70 vote points despite the season sweep by Detroit.
Going back to 1989, 30 of the last 36 winners (83.3%) of the Coach of the Year award coached a team that did not make the playoffs the previous season. So, if you’re going to look for the next NFL Coach of the Year, start by looking at the teams that missed the playoffs last year.
Playoff Berth Still Crucial for COY Success
But you’re also going to want to find a team who will make the playoffs this year as only 2-of-40 Coach of the Year winners since 1985 missed the playoffs, and it happened in consecutive years with Lindy Infante (1989 Packers) and Jimmy Johnson (1990 Cowboys). Everyone else qualified for the playoffs, and 11 times, the award went to the coach who had the No. 1 seed/best record in the NFL.
But the primary way to win it since 1985 has been to take a team that missed the playoffs and get them in it, which has been done 15 times by non-rookie coaches (including O’Connell last year) and another 12 times by a first-year coach.
With that in mind, let’s look at the top Coach of the Year candidates for the 8 coaches with the best odds from Bovada.
Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots (+600 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: Imagine if Mike Vrabel returns to the team he played his best years for and turned them back into a winner right away with a talented 2nd-year quarterback (Drake Maye), a new No. 1 wideout (Stefon Diggs), and an elite left tackle prospect (Will Campbell) to get the ground game going like Vrabel had success with in Tennessee.
For a team coming off a 4-13 season with a quarterback who technically hasn’t finished a winning start where his team allowed more than 3 points, the Patriots sure are favored in a lot of games in 2025 based on current odds.
Vrabel was a smart hire. There are pieces here to be excited about, and the early schedule is favorable. But the Bills still run that division, and the Patriots don’t look noticeably better on paper than other playoff contenders like the Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Chargers, Broncos, and maybe even the Jaguars if Travis Hunter is a revolutionary player.
Vrabel won this award in 2021, but that was his 4th season in Tennessee. Vrabel finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs in his first season with the Titans in 2018, which wouldn’t be good enough to win this award. He also was 6-18 in his last 24 games in Tennessee in 2022-23.
Some optimism here makes sense, but Vrabel isn’t the strongest favorite for this award category.
Aaron Glenn, New York Jets (+700 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: If you can start your head coaching career by ending the longest active playoff drought (14 seasons) in the NFL with Justin Fields as your quarterback, then you absolutely deserve to win Coach of the Year.
But Aaron Glenn, Detroit’s ex-defensive coordinator, has his work cut out for him in a loaded quarterback conference with the reigning MVP (Josh Allen) in his division. Glenn did an admirable job with so many injured defenders in Detroit last year, but the fact is that the team’s success was carried by the offense over the last 3 years. His defenses were generally not championship caliber at all.
Fields is also one of the least clutch quarterbacks in NFL history as he’s 2-18 at comeback opportunities in the 4th quarter, and he’s also 0-22 when his team allows more than 21 points.
It’s hard to see how the Jets make the playoffs this year; therefore, it’s hard to see how Glenn wins Coach of the Year.
Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears (+700 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: Detroit’s offensive whiz joins the rival Bears to help Caleb Williams turn into a premier passer in Year 2 in a talented offense that’s improved the offensive line, added another weapon (tight end Colston Loveland), and has a solid defense. Consider it the 2017 Sean McVay effect on the Rams when he immediately helped Jared Goff make the playoffs after a terrible rookie year.
If you’ve listened to the way the 39-year-old Johnson has talked about the game this offseason, he says the right things almost every time. He’s a huge improvement over Matt Eberflus, and he should get the offense on track quickly as there is a lot of talent to work with.
However, the issue is the division, as the Packers and Lions still look like better teams than Chicago. Maybe Minnesota takes the step back with J.J. McCarthy replacing Sam Darnold, but if the Bears only finish 9-8 against a tough schedule that features 10 games against the North divisions, then that record likely isn’t good enough for the playoffs.
If it’s not good enough for the playoffs, then Johnson isn’t winning this award just for turning a 5-win team into a 9-win team. But if the Bears were in the NFC South or AFC South, Johnson would probably be the favorite to win this award.
Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars (+1000 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: The Jaguars haven’t won 10 games since 2017, so a big year would look very impressive for a Sean McVay disciple like Liam Coen, who got the best play out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last year, and now he could do the same for a healthy Trevor Lawrence. He’s got weapons too in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, the latter possibly starring at multiple positions this year.
This one’s very interesting as the Hunter experiment is one of the main stories to keep an eye on in 2025. If they let Hunter play wide receiver and corner and do it well, that will score Coen some big points for his coaching ability.
The AFC South is also a winnable division as Houston isn’t a strong contender to win it for a 3rd year in a row, so the Jaguars have a real shot to get a home playoff game again. But it’ll largely come down to Coen unlocking the best that Lawrence has to offer.
Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders (+1300 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: Imagine if the oldest coach in NFL history at age 74 went into a division with incredible coaches and quarterbacks, and he found a way into the playoffs with Geno Smith as his signal caller once again, a Seattle reunion. With Brock Bowers and rookie back Ashton Jeanty at his aid, Carroll has some talent on offense and a high-effort defender in Maxx Crosby to lead the defense.
The coaching credibility and narrative of overcoming a tough division would certainly be there for Carroll. However, the Raiders are still likely to have the worst defense in the AFC West, and Carroll didn’t coach a top 10 defense in his final 7 seasons in Seattle.
Smith also might be the worst quarterback in the division if Bo Nix steps up, so it’s not like the Raiders are in a really good spot to make the playoffs here.
Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers (+1500 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: A 2nd-year coach finally gets a breakout year from Bryce Young after the team beefed up the receivers and running game as offense is Dave Canales’ specialty. The NFC South is also winnable, so he could do better than just a wild card.
Getting Young on the right track would look great for Canales’ coaching acumen, but it’s still touch-and-go there, as even with his best games down the stretch, Young still failed to produce great passing statistics in a lot of key areas.
There are also more complete teams in the division like the Falcons and Buccaneers, so it’d really take a 2020 Josh Allen-sized leap for Young to get this team to win the NFC South.
Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers (+1500 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: Well, if we’re turning awards into lifetime achievement awards and checking boxes to make sure every deserving coach gets one, then Kyle Shanahan winning this award for the 1st time in 2025 makes sense.
The fact is, the 49ers are heavily favored to make the playoffs again after suffering so many major injuries and blowing 4 leads in the 4th quarter of NFC West games in 2024. They’ll get Brandon Aiyuk and Christian McCaffrey back to go along with George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall, giving Brock Purdy plenty of weapons. They’ll also get a healthy Nick Bosa and Trent Williams in the trenches.
This team still has elite talent, and the schedule is very favorable to the point where they probably should win over 10.5 games and challenge for another NFC Championship Game.
But if Shanahan couldn’t win the award in 2022 for what he did with Purdy as a rookie, then it’s hard to see what the argument really will be in 2025 with a healthier team that’s still some of the best talent in the NFL.
Again, the hope will be for voters to mention he’s never won it before, so let’s give him one out of pity since he can’t seem to hold a 10-point lead in championship games.
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals (+1700 at Bovada)
- The Coach of the Year Narrative: The Cardinals have only been to the playoffs once in the Kyler Murray era (2021), so getting this team back in the tournament when oddsmakers favor the Rams and 49ers would be a tip in Jonathan Gannon’s cap. They also upgraded his defense with Josh Sweat and rookies Walter Nolen and Will Johnson.
A lot of this team’s success could hinge on Marvin Harrison Jr. putting it together in Year 2 and looking more like his dad as an elite WR1 to go along with tight end Trey McBride and running back James Conner, a great trio of weapons for the scrambling Murray to use.
This one has potential, but it’s always tough to back a team that you don’t see finishing better than 3rd place in its division. Gannon would really have to get that defense firing on all cylinders for this team to surprise with a division title.
Conclusion: Best Picks for the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year Award
We just went over the top 8 candidates for Coach of the Year. But if you had to go off the board for a good candidate, Sean Payton in Denver (+2000 at Bovada) would be the choice. He’s got plenty of coaching credibility as a Super Bowl winner, and if he could end Kansas City’s 9-year streak of winning the AFC West with Bo Nix making a big Year 2 leap, then that would be a very reasonable pick for Coach of the Year.
But if we had to narrow down our best bet for 2025 NFL Coach of the Year, it would be Liam Coen of the Jaguars. A fan favorite is Ben Johnson in Chicago, but we’re thinking about the other nerdy rookie coach who knows offense and is trying to improve a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback (Lawrence) with great weapons around him, and the AFC South is easier to win than the NFC North. Also, don’t discount the Hunter experiment aiding Coen’s case if they make that work out.
Not to mention, if Hunter is a 2-way star, that will help Jacksonville win games this year, so it all works together here. Beyond Coen and Payton, we also will have shares in NFL award parlays for Mike Vrabel getting New England back in contention in Year 1, and you can’t help but throw Gannon a bone as those odds (+1700) are far better value than the Cardinals winning the NFC West (+500 at Bovada).
But give us the weird “Duuuvall!” guy to win Coach of the Year.
Top NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Coach of the Year Award – Liam Coen (+1000) at Bovada
