Top NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award – Aidan Hutchinson (+300) at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
Aidan Hutchinson leads the 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, but who else offers value in a confusing and controversial award market?
A Confusing Award by Design
While the NFL has some player awards that are open to interpretation like MVP or the new Protector of the Year for the best offensive lineman, none are still more confusing than the Comeback Player of the Year award.
It was controversial again last season. After many expected Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin (cardiac arrest) to win the award in 2023 before it went to Cleveland quarterback Joe Flacco, there were supposedly new guidelines set in place that the player must overcome adversity (injury, illness, or other circumstances that led to missed playing time) to win the award. It was no longer supposed to be an award you can win for playing poorly, and now you’re playing well, like how Philip Rivers (2013) and Drew Brees (2004) won it in the past.
Yet, a popular pick in 2024 was for Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold to win the award after his surprising breakout season in Year 7 of his career following a preseason injury to J.J. McCarthy. Some believed the “other circumstances that led to not playing” could apply to Darnold, who was a backup in San Francisco in 2023. Some said Darnold shouldn’t even be eligible under the new guidelines, but many top-rated sportsbooks still took bets on him for the award.
In the end, Joe Burrow won the 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award with 31 1st-place votes and 370 vote points. Darnold finished in 3rd place with 7 1st-place votes and 92 vote points.
Looking Ahead to 2025
One thing we know for certain about 2025 is that Joe Burrow won’t get to win the award for a 3rd time after he played every game last season. With that in mind, let’s look at the candidates at the top of the odds at BetOnline for the 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award with a focus on the players who are returning from serious injury.
There are several very good candidates in 2025.
DE Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions (+300 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: Detroit’s stud pass rusher fractured his tibia and fibula in Week 6, ending what was a promising season where he could have won Defensive Player of the Year after a great start.
Can we stop and acknowledge that a quarterback has won this award in 7 straight seasons since 2018? They really do hog all the awards, but maybe 2025 is the year it goes to a defender for the first time since Kansas City safety Eric Berry in 2015. Before that, it was Greg Ellis winning the award in 2007 for the Cowboys, so we’re kind of due for a defender.
Hutchinson is the best choice since he’s an elite defender in his prime, and he plays for a Super Bowl contender that will have a lot of high-profile games this year with a tough schedule. The Lions are favored to win the NFC North for the 3rd year in a row, and while people expect the offense to regress without coordinator Ben Johnson, maybe the return of Hutchinson on defense sparks the most dominant defensive unit yet under coach Dan Campbell.
In case you forgot, Hutchinson had 7.5 sacks in 5 games before the injury, and the Lions held 4-of-5 opponents to 20 points or fewer in his games. He makes them considerably better.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers (+350 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: A runner-up for this award in 2022, Christian McCaffrey was limited to just 4 games last season due to a variety of leg injuries, including Achilles tendinitis in both legs.
CMC should be a trendy and good pick to win this award. He may have won it in 2022 under the new guideline as Geno Smith edged him out 28-12 in 1st-place votes for regaining a starting job in Seattle after many years as a backup.
McCaffrey’s injury history is well known, and he’s 29 years old now, which is getting into “ancient” territory for the modern NFL running back. He’s a media darling, he’s in an offense that he’s great in behind tackle Trent Williams, and the 49ers have such a favorable schedule that getting back to the playoffs should be well within reach.
QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+350 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: A close runner-up for this award in 2021, Dak Prescott is coming off the most disappointing season of his career after a severe hamstring injury caused him to miss the final 9 games of the season, and things were not going well when he did play for the Cowboys after signing his record contract extension last summer.
It’s hard not to expect Prescott to play much better this season, but the problem is Washington has stepped up in the NFC East with Jayden Daniels, and you still have to contend with the Eagles while working in a new head coach (Brian Schottenheimer).
The Cowboys had a solid draft and traded for George Pickens to give Dak a better WR2 this year. But I’m sold on Washington repeating last year’s success, making Dallas a 3rd-rate team at best in the NFC East. Prescott won’t stand out enough to win this award.
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (+400 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: In a rough season, Trevor Lawrence had multiple injuries with his shoulder and a concussion on a very nasty hit by Houston that ended the quarterback’s season.
There is a real chance here, but is +400 odds for Lawrence better value than rookie coach Liam Coen winning Coach of the Year (+1000 at BetOnline), or the Jaguars winning the AFC South (+275 at BetOnline)? I’m not so sure about that, because it should take a really good season from the Jaguars for Lawrence to win this award.
Like, why should we award a quarterback who maybe throws 25 touchdowns during a 7-10 season? They need to get back to contending in the South, and Lawrence has weapons around him with Brian Thomas Jr. and rookie Travis Hunter. Coen is also a good offensive mind who learned under Sean McVay, and it’s possible this team fights for a playoff spot if all goes well.
But while Lawrence had his breakout season in 2022, he hasn’t really put it all together for a full year. Even in 2022, they started poorly and needed a lot of comebacks and a fumble return touchdown in Week 18 just to win the AFC South that year.
I don’t trust Lawrence enough to deliver for a full season without seeing him do it first.
QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (+600 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: After making his NFL preseason debut, the news was announced that J.J. McCarthy needed meniscus surgery, ending his rookie season prematurely and paving the way for Sam Darnold to have a career season. With Darnold off to the Seahawks, the job is all McCarthy’s.
This one is tricky, as is everything involving the Vikings and McCarthy this season. He’s arguably the wild card of the season, as the Vikings were a game away from the No. 1 seed with Darnold last year. We simply don’t know what kind of quarterback McCarthy will be at the NFL level, but he has talent around him (Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison), and Kevin O’Connell is a good offensive coach.
I’m just not sure how voters will feel about him having a good season. Do they just credit McCarthy and have the best wideout in the game like they kind of did with Darnold last year? It’s too hard to say McCarthy will garner enough votes to win this award over the much bigger names out there.
QB Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers (+1600 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: This one is hard to explain why it’s being offered as Aaron Rodgers started all 17 games for the Jets one year after his torn Achilles. He was a fine candidate for this award last year, but he really shouldn’t be eligible for it this season in Pittsburgh.
Under the old guidelines of “he sucked but now he doesn’t” that we’ve seen players win by before, Rodgers could certainly have a case in 2025. Maybe the change of scenery will be a great thing for him, as he will be going to a team that only knows how to win enough games to avoid a losing season. Rodgers turning 42 in December is also a good argument for this being a noteworthy season, as only Tom Brady has excelled at quarterback at that age.
But I would not bet on Rodgers at all for it as he didn’t miss any games in 2024. He shouldn’t be eligible.
WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: After a hot start to his 2nd season, Rashee Rice tore his ACL in Week 4 on a freak play where Patrick Mahomes accidentally slammed into the receiver’s knee while trying to make a tackle on an interception.
This is the best wide receiver option in the field this year. The last wideouts to win the Comeback Player of the Year were Keenan Allen (2017) and Jordy Nelson (2016), so it has been some years, and it’s not like either had the most receiving yards that season.
If Rice can have the full season like the way he started 2024 and finish with over 1,250 yards and a good number of touchdowns, and if the Chiefs look like a transformed offense again with a new leading receiver instead of the old Travis Kelce, then he’s got the stats and narrative to win this award.
However, since the Chiefs draw so much ire from the media these days, don’t discount some petty AP voters denying Rice a vote as some may feel he should be suspended this year for his role in a street racing incident in Dallas last year.
But for pure on-field reasons, he’s a very solid NFL pick with value at +2000 odds here.
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (+2000 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: Technically, Tua Tagovailoa already made his big comeback from his latest concussion last season. It was a bad hit in Week 2 against Buffalo, but Tua eventually returned. However, he could be eligible again as he was unable to finish the final games of the season with a different injury.
You should fade this one. There have been diminishing returns on the Tagovailoa-led Miami offense under coach Mike McDaniel, and they just traded away tight end Jonnu Smith (Steelers), who looked like the leading receiver in this offense down the stretch last year.
Had Tua’s season ended because of that concussion against Buffalo, you could see him getting some sympathy votes if he played really well this year. But voters are not likely going to be moved by him when there are so many other viable candidates to consider.
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (+3300 at BetOnline)
- The Comeback: Frankly, this one has it all. Anthony Richardson’s comeback attempt is him trying to overcome his 2024 benching for Joe Flacco, his latest injuries that kept him out of action, and the doubt that he’s the franchise quarterback as he’ll have to win the job over Daniel Jones this summer.
This is a great dark horse pick, but you have to be cautious as Richardson might not even win the starting job over Jones, who has some good mobility too and has proven more at the NFL level than Richardson has to this point.
But Year 3 is basically now or never for Richardson in Indy, so when you consider he has a good offensive coach and some nice pieces around him, there’s always a chance he puts things together and leads the Colts back to some relevancy.
But the odds are stacked against him, and even if he does come out and play well, he has to prove he can stay healthy, too. You can’t win this award if you’re hurt again.
Conclusion – Best Picks for the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2025
At the end of the day, I think you have to go with a player the media generally likes and wants to see do well. So, that alone could exclude the likes of Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Tua Tagovailoa, who are all basically projected to finish 3rd in their division anyway.
Then players like J.J. McCarthy and Anthony Richardson are just too unknown to trust them to win this award.
While you usually hate to just make the chalk pick, +300 odds is still solid value for a favorite in a betting market, and I have to say Aidan Hutchinson is my top pick to win this award. His team should still be good, he can make the defense (which should be way healthier around him too) much better if he plays like he was last year, and he’s a superstar on the rise. Let’s let the defender win one for a change.
McCaffrey and Rice Worth a Look
But outside of Hutchinson, McCaffrey is a great pick too, especially for award-winner parlays, as the 49ers should rebound for the playoffs with an easy schedule and expected better health. Rice is also a pick worth investing in as the Chiefs must get back to a more explosive offense, and he looked so good last year before the September injury.
With a quarterback winning this award in 7 straight seasons, I feel bad that my top 3 picks are an edge rusher, running back, and wide receiver. But if I had to pick a quarterback for value, I’d go with Richardson figuring things out in Indy.
But there shouldn’t be as much controversy this season about who wins, as there are several deserving candidates coming off legitimate injuries. Of course, throw that out the window if they try pushing for Rodgers to win it just because he waited so long to sign in Pittsburgh.
NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award – Aidan Hutchinson (+300) at BetOnline
