Top NFL Pick: Offensive Player of the Year 2025 – Bijan Robinson (+1800) at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
While the Philadelphia Eagles will try to repeat as Super Bowl champions in 2025 (+650 at BetOnline), the NFL odds for Saquon Barkley to repeat as the AP’s Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) are actually stronger (+550 at BetOnline) as he is the favorite to win it again following his 2,000-yard rushing season.
But we have at least seen a team repeat recently as the Chiefs were a game short of a three-peat in 2022-24. The OPOY has been a volatile award where no one has repeated as the winner since Marshall Faulk had a 3-year run with the Greatest Show on Turf Rams in 1999-2001. In fact, the only other time this reward has had a repeat since it was established in 1972 was when Houston running back Earl Campbell won it in 1978-80.
That’s not to say Barkley, who was just announced as the Madden 26 cover athlete, isn’t capable of continuing to do great things in this Philadelphia offense. But chances are someone new is likely going to win it, and it’s a market that can provide great value for NFL futures bettors who like to place preseason bets on awards as both singles and parlays with other award winners.
Let’s break down the market as it stands now at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Trends for NFL Offensive Player of the Year Winners
We’ve already established voters, afraid of fatigue, tend to pick someone new for this award each year going back to 1972, a total of 53 seasons. Also, this might be the ultimate “participation trophy” era if Josh Allen’s 2024 MVP win over Lamar Jackson is any sign of how these 50 voters at the AP are thinking. Everyone’s got to share the awards unless they play tight end or offensive line, positions that have never won OPOY.
But OPOY is also unique in the way voters have seemingly taken a stand and stopped choosing quarterbacks to win it, and they’ve stopped letting the MVP winner (almost always a quarterback since 2007) double up with the OPOY award as well. The last quarterback to win OPOY was Patrick Mahomes in 2018 when he shocked everyone by throwing 50 touchdowns as a 1st-year starter.
But since 2019, it’s been 3 wide receivers and 3 running backs, and all 6 players led the league in either rushing or receiving yards. It’s become a real yardage award as 39 of the 53 winners led the league in a main yardage category, so focusing on players who are capable of winning the rushing title or receiving title is key now.
You also need to pick a player on a good team, so you probably don’t want to go betting on Malik Nabers (+3300 at BetOnline) even if you think he can put up 1,500 receiving yards for the Giants, a team projected to finish last in the NFC East.
That’s because 49 of the 53 OPOY winners played for a team that made the playoffs that year, and none of the 53 teams had a losing record. That’s why you want to pick a great player in a quality offense instead of a great player surrounded by bad teammates.
2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds and Best Candidates
Over the next 3 sections, we are going to break down our favorite value pick for the 2025 OPOY award for quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Just as importantly, we’re going to point out why we’re fading certain players who have some of the best odds.
With apologies to Brock Bowers (+5000), this doesn’t feel like the season where a tight end will break through to win this award. At least not in his situation with the Raiders and a new quarterback in Geno Smith.
Quarterbacks: The Dual-Threat Value
While we said this isn’t a quarterback award anymore, that doesn’t mean they can’t compete for it. Lamar Jackson actually finished 2nd in voting last year after he received 12 1st-place votes to 34 for Saquon Barkley (note: some sources say 35). Derrick Henry only received 1 such vote as the running back in that vaunted Baltimore offense.
It’s still possible for a quarterback to win, but their odds are certainly not as strong as the wideouts and running backs. Here is every quarterback with at least +8000 odds for OPOY at BetOnline:
- Jayden Daniels, Commanders (+3300)
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens (+4000)
- Josh Allen, Bills (+4000)
- Jalen Hurts, Eagles (+5000)
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (+6600)
- Joe Burrow, Bengals (+6600)
- Kyler Murray, Cardinals (+6600)
- Justin Herbert, Chargers (+8000)
Even though Jayden Daniels has the best odds of any quarterback, he is behind 12 different running backs and wide receivers, and his odds are tied at +3300 with Tyreek Hill, Josh Jacobs, and Malik Nabers.
But if you are going to pick a quarterback, you want one who can be a dual threat. That’s how Jackson did so well last year as he threw for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns while still rushing for 915 yards and 4 more scores, a historic season. That’s also reason to fade him this year as he’s unlikely to repeat that historic success as his interceptions will likely increase from 4.
Daniels is the player to back here. Last year as a rookie, he passed for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and he ran for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns. The only other quarterback to have a dual-threat season like that in NFL history with those benchmarks was Jackson last year. Daniels is a special talent, and the Commanders may have upgraded his offense with trades for tackle Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel (YAC God).
Could Daniels take things a step further in Year 2 and throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 like Jackson almost did last year? Maybe so. That would seem to be MVP and OPOY worthy if you ask me.
NFL Pick: Offensive Player of the Year 2025 – Jayden Daniels (+3300) at BetOnline
Running Backs: Why We’re Fading Saquon
Here are the 10 best odds from BetOnline for the top running back candidates for OPOY this season:
- Saquon Barkley, Eagles (+550)
- Derrick Henry, Ravens (+1200)
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (+1200)
- Bijan Robinson, Falcons (+1800)
- Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (+2000)
- Josh Jacobs, Packers (+3300)
- De’Von Achane, Dolphins (+4000)
- Jonathan Taylor, Colts (+4000)
- Ashton Jeanty, Raiders (+4000)
- James Cook, Bills (+6000)
It’s hard to stay on top, and that’s why we’re counting on Saquon to take a step back from his career year and not repeat as OPOY. We’re not worried about the “Madden Curse” either. It’s just simple regression as none of the 8 backs to rush for 2,000 yards even cleared 1,500 yards the following season. Throw in Saquon’s absurd number of long touchdown runs, and that should regress and cost him several hundred yards.
We also know the Tush Push is here to stay for 2025, so expect more Jalen Hurts touchdown runs from the 1-yard line, denying Barkley a chance to lead the league in touchdown scores.
Injury is always a concern with the running backs too, and Barkley and Derrick Henry put on heavy workloads for their new teams last year. Henry is 31 years old and isn’t getting any younger.
The players that stand out here are Bijan Robinson and a 2023 OPOY winner in Christian McCaffrey. Robinson could really elevate his game with Michael Penix Jr. taking over at quarterback.
Then there’s the case of McCaffrey, who missed most of 2024 with Achilles tendinitis in both legs. That’s not good for a back of his age, but when healthy, we know he’s money in that offense.
Robinson and CMC are among my favorite plays right now, but if I could only take one, I’ll go for the fresh blood of Robinson helping the Falcons back to the playoffs.
NFL Pick: Offensive Player of the Year 2025 – Bijan Robinson (+1800) at BetOnline
Wide Receivers: Finding the Right Situation
Here are the top 10 wide receiver candidates for OPOY with their odds from BetOnline:
- Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals (+1000)
- Justin Jefferson, Vikings (+1200)
- Nico Collins, Texans (+1200)
- Puka Nacua, Rams (+1600)
- CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (+2000)
- Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (+2500)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (+2800)
- Tyreek Hill, Dolphins (+3300)
- Malik Nabers, Giants (+3300)
- A.J. Brown, Eagles (+4000)
This is a really tough group to choose from this year since wide receiver is a position that is so dependent on other people.
Someone like Chase won the triple crown last year, but he didn’t even get a single 1st-place vote for that, and that probably stems back to the Bengals missing the playoffs again.
That’s why I’m fading Chase in 2025 for this award.
Justin Jefferson is another receiver who’s already won this award recently, and J.J. McCarthy is one of the biggest wild cards to the 2025 season.
Nico Collins is an interesting one in Houston… but +1200 feels like weak odds for someone who has never had 1,300 yards or more than 8 touchdowns.
While I don’t like Jahmyr Gibbs’ chances to win the rushing title in Detroit this year, the idea of the Lions throwing a ton of passes and being less efficient without Ben Johnson makes a ton of sense.
But if I had to pick one, I’m going with Matthew Stafford doing what he does best and forcing the hell out of the ball to his favorite receiver in Puka Nacua.
NFL Pick: Offensive Player of the Year 2025 – Puka Nacua (+1600) at BetOnline
Conclusion
This is an award where you can feel free to get creative, as it is more unpredictable than most of the NFL awards.
The players with favorable odds we are fading with the confidence (or fear) they won’t repeat a career year are Saquon Barkley, Ja’Marr Chase, and Derrick Henry.
The players we’re backing to win OPOY include Jayden Daniels if you go the quarterback route, Bijan Robinson as the newest running back to lead the league in rushing, and Puka Nacua to give the Rams another prolific offensive season.
We’re also high on Christian McCaffrey and Amon-Ra St. Brown as +2000 or higher picks.
