After the UConn Huskies defeated the Purdue Boilermakers for back-to-back titles, it’s time to reflect on this year’s March Madness Tournament.
Here are three betting lessons from March Madness 2024.
1 The Public Isn’t Always Wrong!
Many NCAAB sportsbooks weren’t thrilled with this year’s outcome. The NCAA Tournament featured two No. 1 seeds in the finals and rarely had many huge upsets. We’re accustomed to watching many upsets in March Madness. However, with the new NIL and transfer rules, all of the good mid-major teams ultimately lose their best players to these high-major schools.
As long as NIL is a free-for-all, it’s likely that we won’t see massive upsets year after year. There just won’t be enough talent at the mid-major level.
After all, some of the best players in this year’s NCAA Tournament were transfers. Tristen Newton began his career at East Carolina. Meanwhile, Cam Spencer started his career at Loyola-Maryland. Both were absolute stars for the UConn Huskies this year.
Other top NCAA Tournament players who came from mid-major schools included Max Abmas, who went from Oral Roberts to Texas. Aaron Estrada and Grant Nelson both enrolled at Alabama after playing for mid-major schools last year. If it weren’t for the emergence of the NIL money and transfer portal, those guys might’ve stayed put at their former places, which would’ve made the playing field more exciting.
That said, the public could be right more often until the oddsmakers adjust. The public likes to back favorites and put together long moneyline parlays with favorites. There were a couple of days in the Round of 32 where public bettors absolutely destroyed with those parlays. But it didn’t even stop there. Many bettors went with UConn to win it all and backed them against the spread a lot of the time.
UConn March Madness win cashes $43,200 three-leg parlay https://t.co/KaxpcU76Au pic.twitter.com/bGYJpPTnSQ
— New York Post (@nypost) April 9, 2024
The Huskies won every game against the spread in the NCAA Tournament, while Purdue won each game against the spread before playing UConn. When No. 1 seeds repeatedly beat the spreads, the sportsbooks are in trouble.
2 Betting On Every Underdog In The Tournament Isn’t A Lock!
The best part about March Madness is the upsets. Over the years, we’ve seen more parity in college basketball. In 2023, we had an Elite Eight with no No. 1 seed. But as I acknowledged earlier, that’s probably not going to be the case any longer with NIL and the transfer portal.
Last year was a success for people who backed underdogs in every game. We saw Purdue and Arizona, the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, get knocked out in the first round and many other ridiculous finishes.
Over the last 14 tournaments, the average combined seed of all Final Four teams was 15.3. That was an increase from 9.7 from 1997-2009. However, this year’s Tournament might’ve proved that we’re headed back to the dark side.
If you back the Underdog straight up in every game in this year’s Tournament, you lose money. It’s not as lock as some might’ve thought it was.
@mattybetss The end 👀 Taking EVERY underdog to win in March Madness
3 It Pays To Back Upperclassmen
There’s a reason why John Calipari lost support at Kentucky. He’s great at developing young talent and getting them into the NBA. But thanks to the COVID rule and other factors, there are so many 21-24-year-olds in college basketball that an 18-year-old will struggle to compete against older guys.
The teams that win in the NCAA Tournament are the ones with upperclassmen. If you go back a dozen years, you’d see that most championship teams have had two upperclassmen guards. This year was no different. With Newton and Spencer, the Huskies had five-year seniors at the guard position.
When teams struggle in the NCAA Tournament, it’s often due to self-inflicted wounds. Younger players commit a high number of turnovers that ultimately hurt the team’s chances of winning.
While it’s fun to get excited over a freshman, five-star talent, it’s super hard to win with it. Not even Duke’s team with Zion Williams, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish was able to even get into the Final Four. That was thought to be one of the best five-star classes in the history of college basketball. But they were beaten by a veteran-led Michigan State squad that year. When looking at next year’s field, use this season as a good tool. Back the teams with upperclassmen.
NC State almost missed the NCAA Tournament. They had to win the entire ACC Tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament. From there, NC State continued to shock the world and made it into the Final Four.
Why? They had four graduate seniors and another senior in the starting lineup. That certainly helps.
