Betting on college basketball can get crazy. It’s super overwhelming, with so many games taking place, especially in the first couple of weeks.
Below, we’ll talk about the three most common mistakes bettors make when betting on March Madness.
1 Don’t Just Bet Conference Tournament Winners
Over the last ten years, only two NCAA Champions won their conference tournaments. Take last year as an example: the UConn Huskies didn’t win the Big East. They were defeated in the semifinals but bounced back to win the NCAA Championship.
Most bettors love the teams who are hot coming into the NCAA Tournament. It makes sense. If a team already won a tournament, they’ve got the ability to win another tournament.
But history shows that it’s uncommon. Kansas did it in 2022; they won the Big 12 and then the NCAA Championship. But they were also led by Bill Self, one of the most iconic coaches in the country. If you’re going to bet on a team to win the NCAA Tournament after winning its conference, you better hope the coach has a pedigree of success.
Prior to Kansas, the last team to win the conference tournament and NCAA Championship was Villanova in 2018. That was their second National Championship in two years, led by Jay Wright. The first championship Villanova won, in 2016, the Wildcats didn’t win the Big East. That was an experienced group in 2018.
Prior to that, it was Louisville in 2013. You get the point. Don’t rely on the conference tournament winners to have big tournament runs in the NCAA Tournament. It doesn’t happen often.
2 Picking Mostly Favorites
If you have paid close attention to the conference tournaments, you’d know many No. 1 seeds have been knocked out of their tournaments early. The playing field is much tighter than it was even a dozen years ago. We’ve seen multiple 16 seeds beat No. 1 seeds, and last year, we had a game in the Final Four between Florida Atlantic and San Diego State, two teams that aren’t even in Power 5 conferences.
There are going to be many upsets in this year’s NCAA Tournament. If you bet on mostly favorites this season, you’re going to lose money.
Before this year, 2023 was another historically bad year for No. 1 seeds in conference tournaments. But this year, it was even worse for those teams. Some of the No. 1’s didn’t even make it into the semifinals this year.
Consider backing more underdogs than you’re used to. Make sure to research your selections and have reasoning behind your picks before betting. If an underdog stands out, you might have something!
A sports bettor in 2023 bet the best line for underdogs he could possibly find for every single game in the NCAA Tournament. He finished with 24 wins and 43 losses, but after putting $100 on each game, he ended up with $1,900 in profit.
@mattybetss Betting $100 on EVERY DOG results are in 🐕🏀 #marchmadness #greenscreen ♬ The Office – The Hyphenate
You might feel better about wagering on a team that has a higher probability of winning an NCAA Tournament game. However, the profit seems to be on the underdogs. Imagine betting FDU to upset Purdue and bringing in a crazy amount of money off one bet.
Anything can happen in basketball. So try and get the bigger payday if you see fit.
3 Chasing Losses
March Madness is super overwhelming. There are so many spots to hit in the first weekend of the tournament. Some people just want to bet every single line, while others will chase losses after losing a game or two early. But that’s ultimately not the way to go. Sometimes, this creates a vicious cycle that leads to more losses.
You don’t want to bet money that you need for rent or a mortgage. For 99% of the world, sports betting is for entertainment purposes, so make sure you bet responsibly. It can be easy to put down too much money with all of these games going on at once.
Therefore, you should build a plan of action before the games. Give yourself a budget or a bankroll with a sum of money that, if you lose it all, you and your family will be completely fine. If you catch yourself chasing losses, you’re likely addicted to gambling and probably shouldn’t be betting anymore.
Also, from a basketball standpoint, you will see many games that have ten-point swings back and forth. College basketball is notorious for this. The wacky finishes and dumb fouls always happen in March Madness. That’s the beauty of the sport. But if you can’t handle these swings, you need to be careful with your betting habits.
