The 2025 NFL season is only a month away, but that doesn’t mean people aren’t thinking about which teams will make the playoffs from it. The AFC has been very consistent with division winners as all 4 teams who won in 2023 repeated in 2024.
The odds at the top NFL sportsbooks of the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, and Texans all repeating as division champs for a 3rd-straight year are slim, even if they are all favorites again. But let’s just focus on which AFC teams qualify for the tournament period.
It could be a very deep battle for those wild-card spots:
- The Steelers, Broncos, and Chargers will try to repeat or improve on their 2024 success.
- The Bengals have missed the playoffs with 9-8 records in 2023-24, but they are a favorite to end that drought.
- Even the Jets and Raiders are sparking some interest with new coach/quarterback duos.
- Maybe the Dolphins can return to the playoffs if Tua Tagovailoa avoids concussions.
- The Patriots hired Mike Vrabel and are favored in a surprising number of games after a 4-13 season.
- The Jaguars hired Liam Coen and drafted the most interesting prospect in years in Travis Hunter.
- Extreme dark horses: At least the Colts (Anthony Richardson’s 3rd-year breakout season), Browns (Joe Flacco parties like it’s winter 2023), and Titans (Cam Ward does his best C.J. Stroud/Jayden Daniels impersonation) have a glimmer of hope, but it’s very unlikely they’re in the mix.
Normally, we’d find the best value picks based on the current odds. For example, you’d get a lot more out of betting the Titans to shock the world and make the playoffs (+400 at BetOnline Review) than you would betting on another Buffalo postseason (-700).
But we’re going to do something different today and just pick which 7 AFC teams make the playoffs, along with their current odds from BetOnline to do so. We’re going to order them from most to least confident, too.
1 Buffalo Bills (-700 at BetOnline)
The Bills have made the playoffs 6 seasons in a row and are still the class of the AFC East, the division they’ve owned since 2020. Miami can’t seem to beat them, the Patriots are still just hype, and the Jets have a quarterback in Justin Fields who can’t win any games if you score 21 points against him.
But the schedule is also quite favorable to the Bills as they’ll get to host basically all of their big games against the Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals this year. That could even help them get a bye and No. 1 seed, something they’ve yet to have in the Josh Allen era.
Maybe that’s the missing part to a Super Bowl run.
2 Baltimore Ravens (-500 at BetOnline)
The Ravens had a fantastic offense last year, the 1st in NFL history to surpass 4,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards in the same season. They’ll get Zay Flowers back healthy, Isaiah Likely is looking for a new contract, and Derrick Henry was a perfect fit for what they do. Lamar Jackson never played better than he did in 2024.
Baltimore’s defense started very slow last year before turning it on, and the secondary added corner Jaire Alexander (Packers) and 1st-round safety Malaki Starks, so there is real potential to get much stronger there.
Jackson is 10-1 against the Bengals in his career, and he’s put in a couple of solid performances in consecutive wins over the Steelers now, a defense that’s given him a lot of trouble in the past.
This team should be right in the Super Bowl mix again, but we know it’s the playoffs where they are judged at this point.
3 Kansas City Chiefs (-400 at BetOnline)
It seems like people want to claim the dynasty is over after one big Super Bowl blowout, which was just the 2nd loss of the 2024 season for Kansas City’s starters, by the way. But even if this team took a step back and didn’t win the AFC West for the 10th year in a row, it’s really hard to think they won’t be in the playoffs again.
Patrick Mahomes has a minimum floor of 11 wins and overtime of the AFC Championship Game in all 7 of his seasons as Kansas City’s starter. He also could have a better team around him this year with Rashee Rice’s return (suspension pending), Xavier Worthy’s development in Year 2, and they may have fixed the left tackle position with rookie Josh Simmons.
Don’t forget the Chiefs started 4 left tackles last year, including sliding their guard (Joe Thuney) to that important position. Also, Travis Kelce isn’t going out a loser in his potential final season.
The Chiefs aren’t done by any means. In fact, 2025 should be their next phase after the 3-peat came up a game short. Time to reinvent themselves again, just as they did after trading Tyreek Hill in 2022.
4 Denver Broncos (-125 at BetOnline)
This is a playoff confidence ranking, so it’s not a seeding, or else we’d be picking the AFC South winner. But the Denver Broncos are a team to like this year with Bo Nix finishing 2024 strong; the offensive line is great, and they added some weapons in the backfield (R.J. Harvey) and tight end (Evan Engram) for him. Sean Payton knows some things about sustaining offensive success, too.
But the defense is another reason why the Broncos could compete for the AFC West title this year. They added another corner (Jahdae Barron) to go along with Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, and they got career years out of so many pass rushers in 2024.
The Broncos get a favorable schedule, including getting to host the Chargers at Mile High in Week 18, should that game be important for seeding purposes.
Rookie quarterbacks who make the playoffs and are their team’s full-time starter in Year 2 are 12-for-18 (66.7%) at returning to the playoffs in Year 2 in NFL history. Give me these favorable playoff odds on Denver this year.
5 Cincinnati Bengals (-145 at BetOnline)
The argument for the Bengals getting over the 9-8 hump and back in the tournament is rather simple:
- Start stronger for a change, and the early schedule is favorable for a good September for a change.
- The defense can’t get any worse, so maybe adding a new coordinator and a 1st-round pass rusher who is really athletic (Shemar Stewart) will help – assuming they satisfy Trey Hendrickson’s contract demands.
- The offense paid Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to keep Joe Burrow happy, and it should still be a very good unit.
The Bengals basically blew their shot for the playoffs in September last year when they lost a 16-10 game at home to the lowly Patriots in Week 1, then messed up another 4th quarter in Arrowhead in Week 2 in a 26-25 loss.
There’s not really a great argument for why this team should win 12-plus games and take back the AFC North, but a few better bounces of the ball for defensive takeaways (or clutch field goals) and that’s enough for 10-7 or 11-6 and almost a certain playoff trip.
Also, if they don’t make the playoffs again, head coach Zac Taylor is probably getting fired, so that’s another motivating factor for the Bengals here.
6 Pittsburgh Steelers (+140 at BetOnline)
I feel pretty good about that top 5 this year, but it gets tricky when you talk about the Steelers trying to keep pace ahead of a team like the Chargers, who have a very good coach in Jim Harbaugh and a great passer in Justin Herbert. The Steelers meet the Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Week 10, so that will probably be one of the most important games this season for this.
But let’s trust Mike Tomlin to get this done, as he’s made the playoffs with worse teams before, including this past year. Aaron Rodgers may no longer be an MVP-worthy quarterback as he turns 42 in December, but he’s quite possibly an improvement over the Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, Mason Rudolph, Justin Fields, and Russell Wilson type of quarterbacks the Steelers have paraded out there since Ben Roethlisberger retired.
Rodgers May Have Enough to Lead Balanced Steelers
Rodgers could also be a little stronger, another year removed from his Achilles injury. They did at least get him a very athletic wide receiver in D.K. Metcalf, but the defense could carry this team and not ask Rodgers to do much in the regular season.
This is the best group of corners the Steelers have had in decades with Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay coming to help out Joey Porter Jr. T.J. Watt got his extension and should be ready for a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season, and he still has Cam Heyward next to him and a star in the making in 1st-round rookie Derrick Harmon.
This is certainly a bold approach by Pittsburgh and out of character for this team to bring in so many veterans at once. But Tomlin knows he hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season, and that eats at him more than never having a losing season, as the Steelers can set that all-time record with a 22nd-straight non-losing record.
Steelers Have the Roster to Be in the Hunt Again
But it’s about the playoffs, and even if it’s another wild-card loss, the Steelers have the right pieces to be in the hunt again.
7 Jacksonville Jaguars (+160 at BetOnline)
Last and maybe least, it’s the AFC South winner who could very well end up with the No. 4 seed again and host that Saturday playoff game that we’ve come to expect from this division over the last decade.
The Texans are the favorite after winning it the last 2 years under DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, but they’ll have to make do without Stefon Diggs (Patriots) and Tank Dell (serious knee injury) for most, if not al,l of this season. Their revamped receiving corps from last year didn’t last long with those injuries, and they’ve already seen running back Joe Mixon injured this summer, while Nick Chubb may be washed up.
There’s just not a great vibe coming from this team right now, which also fired offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, a quick descent from someone who showed promise in 2023.
Jaguars Make Bold Moves to Reclaim Division
That’s why the team we’re backing is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who made really big changes with hiring Liam Coen from the Buccaneers and moving up in the draft to take Travis Hunter, the draft’s most interesting player.
Coen is a Sean McVay disciple who got great results out of Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last year. He could do the same for Trevor Lawrence, who is back healthy, and a new 1-2 punch of Brian Thomas Jr. and Hunter at wide receiver could be explosive and great.
Jacksonville’s Defense and Division Schedule Offer Opportunity
The defense also has some young talent that could succeed in a division without much top-level quarterback play.
But if Hunter is as good as advertised with this experiment of playing wide receiver and corner, then that could really put the Jaguars over the top and back in the playoffs, if not back on top of the AFC South. It feels like a division that should only feature 1 playoff team again as they have to play the AFC North and NFC West, 2 potentially deep divisions in 2025.
Never been a big Lawrence fan, but health and coaching matter a lot, and he should have the best of both worlds this year.
Final Pick
The AFC might feel top-heavy with the usual suspects like the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens, but the race for wild-card spots could get wild fast. Talented teams like the Bengals and Steelers are pushing to rebound or repeat, while upstarts like the Jaguars and Broncos could capitalize on weak divisions or favorable schedules.
Injuries, quarterback play, and schedule quirks will ultimately separate contenders from pretenders, but one thing feels clear:
The Denver Broncos have the most value among the “bubble” teams. Bo Nix’s growth, a dominant defense, and Sean Payton’s system could give them enough edge to not just make the postseason, but possibly challenge for the AFC West.
- Denver Broncos to Make 2025-26 NFL playoffs (-125) at BetOnline
