With the start of the NBA Playoffs, we have the next postseason NBA betting opportunity that is completely different from the regular season.
Like all the other sports, the postseason games are played by the same rules, with the possible exception of overtime in some sports, yet, the players’ interest level and playing the same team game after game adds a different element to wagering.
Coaching Matters More
This time of year, the importance of head coaches and how their staff breaks down the opponent not only for the series but contest after contest can decide if a favorite sweeps a series or an underdog wins in six or seven battles.
The head coach not only has to assemble a series game plan but also make in-game decisions that have to work because one blown opportunity by a coach could determine the outcome of a series. At the same time, this coach might have to make a tough decision on a starter who is playing adequately, yet has a red-hot bench player who cannot miss and is disruptive on defense.
The head coach will have to decide what is best for his team to win and that could mean cutting a starter’s minutes in the fourth quarter to ride with the hot bench player. Not every coach has the courage to make such a move and if you are betting NBA basketball in the spring, you must understand this.
Bettors Have to Adjust Also and Possibly Seek Better Chances to Win Wagers
If you watch and follow the NBA playoff games daily, and bet on the games, your range of emotions will go off the charts from confidence to frustration in a short time. In fact, doctors who study human behavior and what bettors go through when sitting and watching a sporting event for two and a half to three hours would be amazed at what they could learn.
Because it’s the NBA, all those emotions were often wasted because invariably it comes down to the last two to three minutes to decipher a point spread winner or a total.
With this in mind, you might need to think like the aforementioned head coach and think differently to generate an edge.
Strategic Thinking
Let’s take two teams, say Boston and New York, are meeting in a series. The Celtics have the home-court edge and were a seven-point favorite in Game 1 over New York. The Knicks gave the Celtics an unexpectedly close game, leading through the first three quarters by 10 points. Boston played lethargic but turned it on in the fourth quarter and outscored New York by 13 to win without beating the spread.
Boston shot poorly, nevertheless, oddsmakers were unfazed by what they saw and made the Celtics a 7-point favorite again for Game 2. The betting public liked what they saw from the Knicks and drove the point spread down to -6.5 a couple of hours before game time.
You realize Boston is the better team, however, how New York played caused you trepidation to back the favorite.
An experienced bettor and student of the NBA should look at the box score and find the Celtics are likely to shoot better and bring extra intensity for Game 2. The C’s head coach will implore his team to play harder from the start.
*With the line at -6.5, this is where taking Boston at -3.5 on the first half line (or -4 potentially) can be a wise play. As noted, the Celtics should shoot better, the mental approach should be sharper and you have to less concern yourself with the ebbs and flows of an entire NBA contest.
Leveraging Underdog Potential
This can also work with an underdog with a bad defensive game in losing by 20 as a five-point underdog. Oddsmakers lift the favorite to -6 based on public perception of the last outcome.
The underdog was embarrassed, knowing they were capable of a better showing, bringing a completely different approach to the next conflict. Here you are likely to have a pooch catching +3.5 on the first half line and because of their determination and a bit of a mental letdown in the first two quarters from the favorite, you beat the number.
The Conclusion
These situations don’t fit every winner and loser. You have to know the squads, their capabilities and how they might respond to success or failure game by game. Nonetheless, if you are astutely paying attention, you can utilize an alternate method of beating the books without the normal end-of-game theatrics the NBA will often provide.
