If winning the American League East Division was a game show, the studio audience and viewers at home would be listening to Don Pardo telling the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays about their parting gifts after coming up short in the race.
And then we’d begin the lightning round with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees in a dead heat going toe toe-to-toe with one another and slugging it out like a couple of heavyweights. Or at least a couple of heavy favorites at MLB betting sites.
Yankees Favored Currently
With just a little more than six weeks remaining on the 2024 schedule, Baltimore is a half-game behind New York after the Yankees moved into the lead on Tuesday.
New York is also leading the way on the MLB futures odds, carrying a price tag in the -140 to -180 range at various outlets, with the Orioles on the plus-side of even at +125 to +150.
It’s not surprising to see the Yankees garnering a large chunk of chalk despite current standings being fairly even. After all, no MLB team gets as much fat from oddsmakers as New York.
There is also a lesson here on why bettors need to have more than one viable sportsbook to use. I mean, would you rather risk $1.80 to win a buck on the Yankees taking the division, or $1.40 to do the same?
Making a Case for the O’s
Baltimore was one of the best stories in baseball in 2023. The Orioles shocked the American League by leading the circuit with 101 wins, well above preseason projections, and made it into the postseason for the first time since 2016.
The element of surprise was gone entering 2024 when top sportsbooks pegged the Orioles as the top challenger to New York in the AL East, and credit goes to manager Brandon Hyde for keeping young stars on an even keel and playing like division champs again.
Hyde has the most powerful lineup in the American League, and there’s sufficient speed to keep the offense from being one-dimensional. Anthony Santander leads the team with 35 clouts, with Gunnar Henderson not far behind with 29.
Baltimore has also been able to plug in talent from the farm when injury strikes. Jordan Westburg (hand) and Jorge Mateo (elbow) are both out until late September, and the Orioles just reached down on the farm to find Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo.
Does Baltimore Have Enough Pitching?
The Orioles added Corbin Burnes through a trade with the Brewers during the offseason, and GM Mike Elias should be lauded for the move. But with Grayson Rodriguez now on the DL with a lat strain, will Baltimore have enough pitching?
Zach Eflin could hold the key. Eflin was brought over from Tampa Bay in a deadline deal, and the 30-year-old righthander has been money so far by winning his first three starts for the O’s.
They’ll still need to get Rodriguez back in time to make 4-5 assignments, as well as have Craig Kimbrel to continue leading the bullpen.
Making a Case for the Yanks
No team has a 1-2 punch in its lineup that can compete with the Yankees’ tandem of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Judge has a legitimate shot at the AL Triple Crown, and Soto is very likely to lurk in his teammate’s shadow when the AL MVP votes are counted.
Trouble is, there hasn’t been a ton of support for that pair other than Alex Verdugo. Giancarlo Stanton has shown signs the last couple of weeks that he can offer some protection for Judge in the lineup, but how long can we realistically expect Stanton to remain healthy?
Manager Aaron Boone has a consistent group of arms in his rotation, led by Luis Gil and Carlos Rodon. The bullpen has also proven strong enough. But it’s a staff that has proven to be a bit troubled by the home run ball.
The real secret for New York might still be Gerrit Cole. The 2023 AL Cy Young winner missed the first 12 weeks of the season and has battled command trouble, and if he can find his form the last 6 weeks, it would go a long way towards a division title.
Just 1 Series Left Between Clubs
A quick check of the remaining schedules for the Yankees and Orioles reveals New York has a slightly tougher slate the rest of the way. Beginning this weekend, New York has 13 series remaining against teams with a collective .494 PCT (records through Aug. 12).
Baltimore’s 13 series come against teams with a .491 PCT. One of those series is against the White Sox, which really drags that W-L number down.
The Yankees and Orioles only have one series left with each other, and it takes place in the Bronx during the final week of the season (Sep 25-27). Baltimore leads the season series 6-4, but playing at home that final week gives New York the edge.
Look for the Yankees to have just enough to push the Orioles aside in the division, and win the AL East by 2 games.
