As the NFL gets closer to the end of the regular season, it will soon be time to choose the award winners, including Rookie of the Year. But these are awards you can place futures bets on at top-rated NFL sportsbooks before the season even starts, and you can usually get great odds on them as the races tend to be wide open before Week 1.
But there are some strategies to employ that should give you an advantage when it comes to picking the Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
We have created the following guide to show you how those races are breaking down in 2023 and what historical standards you could have followed to arrive at the likely winners this year and in future seasons to come.
Strategies for Offensive Rookie of the Year
The following betting tips apply to the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award, which can go to any rookie who plays quarterback, wide receiver, running back, tight end, or offensive linemen.
Quarterbacks Get Benefit of the Doubt
Since quarterback is the most important position to team success, they get a push for an award like this even if a skill player is statistically impressive too. Take the 2020 race as a good example when Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert received 41 votes to just 9 votes for wide receiver Justin Jefferson of the Vikings.
Jefferson had an outstanding year with 88 catches, 1,400 yards, and 7 touchdowns – numbers that would have been good enough to win the award most years. But Herbert set a rookie record with 31 touchdown passes in 15 games, so he was able to claim that award rather easily in the voting.
It used to be that quarterbacks rarely won this award because it was usually hard to excel at quarterback right away in the NFL. Many good ones would sit on the bench for a year before taking the full-time job.
But starting with Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, there started to be more Year 1 stars at the position as the league has shifted to passing as the dominant force in leading an offense. Since 2004, 9 quarterbacks have won OROY compared to 6 running backs and 4 wide receivers.
The quarterbacks had an advantage for this award in 2023 with 3 of the first 4 picks in the draft turning out to be Bryce Young (Panthers), C.J. Stroud (Texans), and Anthony Richardson (Colts).
But Stroud started pulling away early here as Young has done nothing but struggle, and injuries ended Richardson’s season very early in Indianapolis.
Stroud’s season has been incredible in Houston. He leads the NFL in passing yards (3,540) going into Week 14 and he ranks No. 3 in yards per attempt (8.5), so he is doing it efficiently for a Houston team that has as many wins as it had in the previous 2 seasons combined. They have real playoff aspirations now behind Stroud, who has also helped his unproven receiving corps flourish with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Noah Brown, and tight end Dalton Schultz from Dallas.
Stroud has been so impressive that many sportsbooks have moved his odds to -10000 to win OROY in 2023. He is a lock, and even if he were to get injured as so many quarterbacks have this year, no one can catch him at this point.
Also, keep in mind that a quarterback does not have to play for a team with a winning record to win this award like they do for MVP. Herbert, Kyler Murray (2019 Cardinals), Cam Newton (2011 Panthers), Sam Bradford (2010 Rams), and Vince Young (2006 Titans) all played on teams that were .500 or had a losing record.
But Stroud’s team is on pace for a winning season, further making him one of the biggest runaway winners this award will ever see.
Running Backs Are Safe Bets But No Longer the Preferred Position
The OROY award used to be dominated by running backs, because they were once much more important in offenses, and it is a position that a player can excel at almost immediately. The quality of their offensive line has more to do with the back’s ability to produce than anything else, to be honest.
There was a stretch in 1971-83 where 12 of the 13 OROY winners were running backs, including some legendary backs like Franco Harris, Tony Dorsett, Earl Campbell, Marcus Allen, and Eric Dickerson.
A similar run happened in 1986-2002 when 15-of-17 OROY winners were running backs, including Barry Sanders, Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Eddie George, Edgerrin James, and Clinton Portis.
But in the late 2000s, teams started shifting away from workhorse backs who carried the ball over 300 times a season in favor of running back by committee approaches, making use of players with different skillsets like bruisers and receiving backs.
Adrian Peterson won OROY in 2007 for the Vikings, but he was also a generational running back talent that was expected to be a great one. In fact, any great running back prospect usually gets compared to Peterson to this day but no one has really measured up to him.
But if there’s a draft class that looks kind of weak at quarterback and wide receiver, then running back is a strong bet to make. Take 2013 and 2015 as examples when the quarterbacks included middling prospects like Geno Smith, E.J. Manuel, Marcus Mariota, and Jameis Winston. That can help explain why Eddie Lacy (Packers) won OROY in 2013 and Todd Gurley, a hyped back in college, won it for the Rams in 2015.
The only other backs to recently win the award were Alvin Kamara (2017 Saints) and Saquon Barkley (2018 Giants). In Kamara’s case, he was fortunate that Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in practice halfway through the year, because he was poised to run away with that award after his historic start that season. That was just a case of bad luck.
As for 2018, Barkley was one of those backs getting the “best prospect since Adrian Peterson” hype when he went No. 2. In hindsight, the Giants probably wish they drafted Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to succeed Eli Manning instead of taking a back. But Barkley only edged out Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, the No. 1 overall pick, 26.5 to 21.5 in the voting, so it was very close.
With Stroud poised to win the award this year, it will be at least 5 years without a running back winning OROY, which ties the longest drought in history since the award was handed out the first time in 1967.
The 2023 draft class speaks to some of the issues today’s backs face in winning this award. Bijan Robinson (Falcons) and Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) were the only backs drafted in the 1st round, and Robinson was the favorite to win OROY before the season started since he went to an Atlanta team that had the most run-heavy offense in 2022.
However, you can never trust what coach Arthur Smith is going to do with his young skill players. While Robinson has clearly been the team’s best back, he only has 16 more carries than Tyler Allgeier through 12 games. He has been the team’s top receiving back too, but Robinson has 1,022 yards from scrimmage and 6 total touchdowns through 12 games – numbers that aren’t that eye-popping.
Meanwhile, Gibbs plays in a better offense in Detroit and has been impressive, but the team still favors veteran David Montgomery, especially at the goal line for touchdowns. The committee and shared workload approach makes it a lot harder for a rookie back to win OROY, especially if there’s a quarterback or wide receiver in the hunt.
You can still try to pick a safe running back for OROY going forward, but it has to be in a situation where you expect them to get the vast majority of touches. But fewer and fewer teams are interested in running their offense like that.
Wide Receivers Are Rare Winners
It is certainly not impossible for wide receivers to win OROY, but it is very difficult as they are often at the mercy of their quarterback’s accuracy, their teammates’ target shares, and how much their team wants to throw the ball. They are the offensive position most dependent on their teammates.
If you look at the names of the wide receivers to win OROY in the pre-salary cap era (before 1994), you won’t see any Hall of Famers. You will see names like Earl McCullouch (1968 Lions), Sammy White (1976 Vikings), Louis Lipps (1984 Steelers), Eddie Brown (1985 Bengals), and Carl Pickens (1992 Bengals).
It wasn’t until 1998 when Randy Moss set the league on fire in Minnesota that a slam-dunk Hall of Famer came in and immediately won OROY at wide receiver. Moss set the bar so high since he caught 17 touchdowns and helped the Vikings to a 15-1 record and the most points ever scored in a season.
But some impressive seasons have won OROY since, including Anquan Boldin (2003 Cardinals), Odell Beckham Jr. (2014 Giants), and Ja’Marr Chase (2021 Bengals). Garrett Wilson also narrowly won the award for the Jets in 2022 as Seattle running back Kenneth Walker received more 1st-place votes, but the new ranked voting system ultimately gave Wilson more points than Walker, 156 to 129.
But this does show how hard it is for a wideout to win. Chase basically needed to link up with his college quarterback Joe Burrow in Cincinnati to instantly have that chemistry to produce at a high level. Beckham made a name for himself in 2014 when he had that incredible one-handed catch on Sunday Night Football, a game millions were watching. He might not have received the same hype if he played for the Houston Texans and made that catch during a 1:00 p.m. game.
This is also why the 2023 draft class never really stood a chance at OROY. You have to be someone who is a clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver who can go over 1,000 yards and maybe be a big touchdown scorer as well. That was not the way to describe any of the 4 wide receivers drafted in the 1at round this year:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks: He clearly was going to play behind D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Jordan Addison, Vikings: To his credit, he stepped up when Justin Jefferson was injured and that improved his opportunities for stats, but he won’t win the award this year.
Quentin Johnston, Chargers: He has been viewed as a huge disappointment so far, and he was going to play behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. When Williams tore his ACL, Johnston did not step up.
Zay Flowers, Ravens: He has been very good and leads Baltimore in most receiving categories, which probably would have been the case even if tight end Mark Andrews didn’t get injured.
Speaking of injuries, Puka Nacua was the September darkhorse for OROY as a Cooper Kupp hamstring injury opened the door for this 5th-round rookie, and he was rewriting the record books with all the catches and yards he collected early this season. He is the first player in this draft class to break 1,000 receiving yards. If Stroud wasn’t doing what he is doing in Houston, this could be Puka’s award as he is a great story.
Never Bet on a Tight End or Lineman
Our last tip on offense, you don’t want to bet on a tight end or lineman to win it. They have never won it even once since 1967. The day could come when that changes, but it would have to take an incredible prospect, someone who can come right out of the gate and play the game like Rob Gronkowski or Travis Kelce in their prime.
But the problem with tight end is that it has notoriously been a difficult position to dominate right away. You are going to have to do big things as a receiver to get the attention for this award, but they also have to learn how to block to maximize their playing time.
The fact is most teams just don’t draft a tight end with the hope to make them the featured part of their passing game. The Lions drafted Sam LaPorta in the 2nd round this year and he has been very impressive with almost 700 yards in 12 games. But he is still not going to sniff OROY this year, and he may not have gotten any love for it in past years either.
As for the linemen, that is very difficult as most voters and media members do not analyze individual offensive line play to begin with. It is more of a unit group where the play of the unit matters more than any one individual. Colts guard Quenton Nelson did receive 2 votes for OROY in 2018, but it will be very hard, if not impossible, for someone to actually win it someday.
But there is a first for everything.
Strategies for Defensive Rookie of the Year
The following betting tips apply to the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) award, which can go to any rookie who plays defensive end, defensive tackle, linebacker, corner, or safety.
Who Usually Wins Defensive Rookie of the Year?
The DROY award also goes back to 1967 when we are talking about the vote by the Associated Press. Jets corner Sauce Gardner won the award last year, making him the 9th cornerback to win it. Here is the breakdown of winners by position since 1967:
- 27 linebackers
- 12 defensive ends
- 7 defensive tackles
- 9 cornerbacks
- 2 safeties
Note: The 1980 winner was a tie between a pair of linebackers on the Atlanta Falcons.
A good betting strategy for DPOY is to focus on draft status since that does tend to drive playing time and often performance, especially in Year 1. Here is the breakdown of the 57 winners by draft status:
- 46-of-57 winners were 1st-round picks (80.7%)
- 9-of-57 winners were 2nd-round picks (15.8%)
- Only 2-of-57 winners were not a 1st or 2nd-round pick chosen in the top 51 picks (3.5%)
- 30-of-57 winners were top 10 picks (52.6%)
- 45-of-57 winners were top 20 picks (78.9%)
No one has won DROY that wasn’t a top 40 draft pick since Erik McMillan, a 3rd-round safety in 1988 for the Jets. That is over 30 years of winners, so that makes draft status a very significant factor here. Getting cute and picking a 5th-round linebacker longshot is unlikely to reward you anything.
Even 2nd-round picks usually don’t win it as the only recent winners from that round were Kendrell Bell (2001 Steelers), DeMeco Ryans (2006 Texans), and Shaquille Leonard (2018 Colts) – all linebackers.
Does being on a good team help? It can, but that’s more of a prerequisite for Defensive Player of the Year. You usually have to be part of a strong defense to win that award. Rookies get more leeway and just need to produce some individual stats that stand out from the rest of the class.
Since 2002, only 9-of-21 DROY winners played for a playoff team, and 12-of-21 played for a team without a losing record.
The biggest takeaways are that draft status matters a lot, edge rushers/linebackers have the easiest path to the award, and you might as well fade any safeties since 2 have won the award since 1967.
The 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year Race
To prove how draft status plays such a role, there were 4 defenders drafted in the top 10 picks in 2023 (Will Anderson, Devon Witherspoon, Tyree Wilson, and Jalen Carter). They had the 4 highest odds in the preseason to win DROY.
Wilson has been a ghost with the Raiders, but the other trio has largely dominated this race with Carter having an early edge that he is still holding onto with sportsbooks giving him about -175 odds to win the award.
Carter went to a team in Philadelphia that had a great pass rush last year with 70 sacks. But while Carter was doing great things with pressures early in the season, his production has dropped off as he only has 5 pressures and 0.5 sacks in his last 6 games as the defense in Philadelphia has fallen off a lot from last year’s performance.
This is a case of Carter being fortunate that this draft class has not produced great defensive stats as no one has more than 5.5 sacks and only 2 players have notched 2 interceptions. Carter also had the preseason hype as many thought he was the best defender in the draft before he slid No. 9 to the Eagles due to off-field issues.
But if Carter does not step his game up to end the year, he may get passed up by the first defensive player drafted, Houston’s Will Anderson. He had 6 pressures and 2 sacks in Week 13 against Russell Wilson, which is more pass-rushing production than Carter’s had in his last 6 games. It looks like Houston nailed this draft with the aggressive move to get Anderson and take him a pick after Stroud. It would be incredible to see them win DROY and OROY with this class as the Texans make their playoff push.
Witherspoon in Seattle also had a shot at various points this year to jump ahead of Carter. He’s not far behind with 3.0 sacks himself, and he leads all rookie defenders with 46 solo tackles. His coverage stats were solid early in the season, but he has recently allowed 3 touchdowns in the last month as Seattle’s season looks to be falling apart for the playoffs.
With odds around +300 for Anderson, he is the dark horse to catch Carter, but this has generally been an underwhelming defensive rookie class. Normally, you could focus on a highly drafted edge rusher to win the award like Micah Parsons (2021 Cowboys), Chase Young (2020 Washington), and Nick Bosa (2019 49ers).
But this might be Houston’s draft class to shine this year.
