Top NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Protector of the Year Award – Trent Williams (+900) at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
Few positions in football are more vital — yet more overlooked — than offensive linemen. In the betting world and beyond, they’ve long been undervalued. But that’s about to change. The NFL is finally giving these unsung heroes their due with a brand-new award: Protector of the Year.
With NFL sportsbooks like BetOnline already offering odds, this fresh market presents intriguing opportunities. In the sections ahead, we’ll explore who’s favored, how the award might be decided, and where the sharp betting value could be hiding.
Betting on the Big Men
No matter how much offensive linemen are recognized as being important in the NFL, the fact is they don’t win awards. No offensive lineman has ever won MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, or even a single-game award like Super Bowl MVP or Pro Bowl MVP.
Remember, the main source of Super Bowl 59 being such a blowout was the way Philadelphia dominated Kansas City in the trenches on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs couldn’t protect Patrick Mahomes against standard 4-man rushes and they couldn’t get any pressure on Jalen Hurts without resorting to blitzes.
The offensive line is very important, but its standout individuals are rarely ever honored. But this is going to change with the 2025 NFL season, because the league’s announced a new award called the Protector of the Year that will honor the best offensive lineman this season.
As expected, you can bet on this award with odds available at BetOnline right now. Here are the 10 players with odds better than +2000:
- OT Penei Sewell, Lions (+300)
- OT Tristan Wirfs, Buccaneers (+800)
- OT Trent Williams, 49ers (+900)
- OT Lane Johnson, Eagles (+900)
- OT Dion Dawkins, Bills (+1200)
- OT Rashawn Slater, Chargers (+1200)
- G Quinn Meinerz, Broncos (+1400)
- OT Jordan Mailata, Eagles (+1400)
- OT Laremy Tunsil, Commanders (+1400)
- C Creed Humphrey, Chiefs (+1600)
But since this is the NFL’s 1st new award in decades, we have no data or precedent for how this will work out.
- Will left tackles have a strong bias towards winning it the way quarterbacks have such an edge on winning MVP since they are perceived as the most important (and highest paid) members of the line?
- Do you have to be on a winning/playoff team to win this award the way the Defensive Player of the Year is almost always on a successful defense and playoff team?
- Do you have to be a 1st-team All-Pro to win this award, or will there be an MVP component to it where someone who was by far the best part of a bad line be able to win the award as long as they graded out as a top 3 player at their position?
With the uncharted territory this award is taking, it could provide great NFL value for betting this season. Let’s go through some tips on how to approach betting on the NFL’s Protector of the Year award.
Understanding the Voting Panel and Criteria
Something that differentiates this award from the other NFL awards is that it won’t be voted on by a 50-person panel of media members (some ex-players included) at the Associated Press (AP), which determines the other official award winners like MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and the top rookies.
Instead, the Protector of the Year award is a 6-person panel consisting of retired NFL players who were star offensive linemen:
- LeCharles Bentley
- Jason Kelce
- Shaun O’Hara
- Orlando Pace
- Will Shields
- Andrew Whitworth
What stands out here? Only Orlando Pace and Andrew Whitworth were offensive tackles, so they may not be as biased as some would expect towards tackles winning the award. Guards and centers are perfectly eligible too even if 8-of-10 players at the top of the odds are tackles.
Qualified Eyes on the Line
Since they all played offensive line, that’s probably a better judgment of who is playing well than the media members, who may not focus much on offensive line play from individuals or even know what to focus on for this award.
But with 6 people only voting, could there be ties and multiple winners that pay out bets? We’ll see once they start voting, but it’s also good to know what their voting criteria are built on.
The Voting Criteria
Offensive linemen don’t have traditional and objective stats like skill players and defenders have, but they still have numbers like penalties and sacks allowed. The NFL released some information on the voting criteria for the Protector of the Year Award:
- Skill Metrics including stats like win rate for pass blocking and run blocking, penalties called for, and sacks allowed.
- Impact on the team’s offensive success (rushing yards, QB protection stats likely meaning pressure rates).
- Leadership is supposed to be a factor in how well and consistent the player leads the team.
- Durability means you have to play a certain minimum number of snaps and games to qualify for the award (not specified how many).
- Strength of opponent will also be a factor as you should get more credit for shutting down a tougher defensive assignment.
Despite the word “Protector” in the title, it sure does look like this will be an award for the best overall offensive lineman and not just the best in pass protection. That’s also important to note.
One metric not mentioned at all was Pro Football Focus grade. But if a player is in the running for Protector of the Year, there’s a decent chance they grade well at PFF, so that could be something to keep an eye on going into the season and early in the season when placing bets on this market.
Shop Around for the Best Odds
This usually is a good tip for betting on any futures market, but it’s even more important to shop around the sportsbooks for the best prices (odds) on the players you want to bet on for what is a brand-new award.
That means there’s more uncertainty than usual as not even the oddsmakers know how the panel will vote on this award. For all we know, they could be really terrible at this and pick a guard who barely graded top 5 at his position this year just because they like his “grit and leadership” or something to that effect. After all, Andrew Whitworth was the inspiration for this award, and that man thinks a hoodie with a blazer is a great look for every single occasion.
But proof that we could see real variation in the odds is already out there, as popular sportsbooks have released some odds for Protector of the Year, and they vary greatly among each other. For example, you can get Penei Sewell as the favorite at +650 odds at Everygame compared to just +300 at BetOnline, a huge difference for the odds-on favorite. Someone like Laremy Tunsil is +2200 at Everygame and +1400 at BetOnline.
So, as other sportsbooks start to post odds for this market as the season draws nearer, be sure to check them out to find the best prices before placing your bets.
Betting Tip: Fade Dion Dawkins
With all respect to Buffalo tackle Dion Dawkins, it probably wouldn’t be a great look if he won the inaugural version of this award in 2025 given he was the active player most responsible for this award getting created.
Dawkins and Andrew Whitworth really helped make the Protector of the Year award a reality in 2025 by publicly lobbying for the big guys up front to have their day in the sun with their own award. But since Dawkins is an active player, he’s not eligible for the voting panel that will decide the winner.
If Dawkins won the award in 2025, that would certainly look like some bias and favoritism by the panel. Even though only 4 players have higher odds than Dawkins (+1200 at BetOnline) right now, he’s never made an All-Pro team, and that would seem to be a big deal for winning this award.
Dawkins is a good tackle, but there are a few better options out there for 2025.
✔ Do Bet on Players from Teams You Expect to Have Success
One of the most interesting aspects to this award is just how much team success will play a role in the winner. They mentioned “impact” as part of the criteria, but how strongly will that be enforced? Can someone on a bottom-ranked offense for a 5-12 team really sniff this award?
Will it be more like Defensive Player of the Year, where you need a team record that’s good enough for the playoffs in addition to nice stats? Someone like Trey Hendrickson had an NFL-high 17.5 sacks for the Bengals last year, but since that defense was below average and they missed the playoffs with a 9-8 record, he didn’t come close to winning DPOY.
Will that carry over to this award as well?
For another example, Cleveland left tackle Joe Thomas is the most decorated offensive lineman to enter the NFL in the 21st century with 10 Pro Bowls and 6 1st-team All-Pro selections in his 11-year Hall of Fame career. But given the Browns were almost always bad on offense and in team record during his career, does that mean he never would have won this award despite having the recognition as the best left tackle in the game?
We’ll find out soon how much success and winning are valued for Protector of the Year.
✔ Do Bet on Players You Expect to Make All-Pro Team
We shouldn’t just assume the Protector of the Year winner will always be a 1st-team All-Pro selection at their position. We just watched a 2024 NFL season where Josh Allen wasn’t 1st-team All-Pro quarterback and still won MVP over Lamar Jackson.
The other reason to assume this won’t always be the case is that the voters are a different and smaller group of people than the AP panel that determines the All-Pro rosters.
But with that said, there’s a good chance the player who wins this award is also a 1st-team All-Pro that season. When you study the last 5 years of All-Pro offensive linemen, you’ll find that only Joel Bitonio failed to play for a playoff team, doing so twice with the Browns in 2021-22. Everyone else was a 1st-team All-Pro for a playoff team.
That’s a good reason to bet on players like Penei Sewell and Tristan Wirfs in 2025, as they are on teams with multiple playoff appearances in recent years who have high expectations again this season.
✖ Don’t Bet on Players from Stacked Lines
Again, this is a logical betting tip that could be blown apart by the voting panel once we get some years of data on this award. But in theory, someone who plays on a great offensive line should have a harder time winning this award than someone who really stands out with little quality next to them on the line.
That’s why someone like Lane Johnson in Philadelphia could have a hard time winning it, as the Eagles are regarded as having the best offensive line in the league. That’s why the left tackle, Jordan Mailata, also has top 10 odds for it at +1400.
In theory, Mailata and Johnson could take votes away from each other as voters determine which tackle is really the best on the Eagles, let alone the rest of the NFL.
That’s also the reason I probably wouldn’t bet on Rashawn Slater to win this award this year for the Chargers when they took Joe Alt to take over the right tackle position a year ago. Alt could make a big leap this season and turn into an All-Pro himself, so that’s another situation where both tackles can be great and can take away from each other’s value.
Conclusion: Favorite Picks
Again, there’s a lot to learn about this new award, but it’ll be fun to see what kind of lineman they honor in Year 1 for it.
If I were spreading out some bets on Protector of the Year for the 2025 season today, based on the tips used above, these are my top 3 picks in order of top value:
- Trent Williams, 49ers – +900 at BetOnline: Elite player with proven track record of success who gets to play a very favorable schedule with a loaded offense that should be much healthier (Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk) this season.
- Penei Sewell, Lions – +300 at BetOnline: Don’t love the odds here, but Sewell could have a strong narrative to win it if he maintains his excellence in leading the Lions’ offense after it lost coordinator Ben Johnson and center Frank Ragnow retired.
- Laremy Tunsil, Commanders – +1400 at BetOnline: He’s been very good in the past, but in joining the Commanders, Tunsil should have the best quarterback (Jayden Daniels) of his career, and big things should be expected of this offense and team in Year 2 after almost getting to a Super Bowl with Daniels as a rookie.
But we’ll see what the voters decide at the end of the season.
Top NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Protector of the Year Award – Trent Williams (+900) at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review)
