There is no more exciting event than the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. The first weekend of the event is loaded with upsets, shockers, and near takedowns of higher-ranked squads. To have success you have to approach these games with a different mindset than the regular season. Before you go place your NCAAB bets, let’s start by thinking a different way.
A Variation of the Completion Backwards Principle
The Completion Backwards Principle is solving the problem first and working backward to the beginning to make sure you did so correctly.
In filling out a bracket, don’t start at the beginning. Instead, your first four picks should be who makes the Final Four. In the last 34 NCAA Tournaments, teams seeded below #6 have won the title once (#7 Connecticut 2014). Can a team seeded #8 or lower reach the Final Four? Of course they can but picking the squad is an arduous task. Pick clubs at #6 or higher in each region and your chances of success will rise.
By using this technique, you already have made a few picks in each region. This does not make the process easier but it simplifies it.
Identify who has the better defense and offensive efficiency. Those numbers can be found at KenPom and TeamRankings. Depending on how deep a dive you want to take, look for weaknesses/strengths in two or three-point shooting and defense and determine those in comparison to the point spread or total.
Next is to decipher who has the better guards and players who can score in the paint and how a team has played in their last eight games.
After an insane 109.5 efficiency rating posted collectively yesterday, we officially have the most efficient college bball season in @kenpomeroy‘s database through this point in the season: pic.twitter.com/SCzpKEAAOS
— Jim Root (@2ndChancePoints) January 17, 2024
Put in the work and your desired results are more likely to work in your favor.
Understanding Talent and Seeds
When making picks, having talent matters but in any one-game scenario, many things can occur. Who has the better tandem of guards? Are they currently playing above, below, or the same as their season averages? An NBA quality guard may be off on his shot in his last five outings and with his team depending on him as their leading scorer, that could make a big difference.
Or possibly a 6’7 big man from a smaller school who won their conference is torching opponents and he is a matchup nightmare for the favorite, which can matter for an upset.
As far as seeds, for each round of the tournament correlates to the point spread to the seed differential and understanding if it makes sense. If a #2 is a favorite by six points or less vs. a #10 seed in the second round, the oddsmakers are telling you something to pay attention to.
Pay Strict Attention to the Game by Game Results
Right from the start you should chart the results of each round to find any prevailing trends.
>First Four – Faves vs. Underdogs and Totals
>Round One – Faves vs. Underdogs (Add Seeds in the Mix) and Totals
Starting here you want to add in point differentials for ATS results. Use the closing lines and keep track of these: 1-3 points, 3.5 to 7, 7.5 to 10 and 10.5 or more. For totals, below 120, 120 to 129.5, 130 to 139.5, 140 to 149.5 and 150 or higher. This gives you a complete feel of the results of the tournament as it proceeds.
>Round Two – Faves vs. Underdogs, Seeds in the Mix and Totals
In the round, you want to start keeping track of conference results. This can be done ahead of time but taking all the conferences with two or more bids and doing this:
- Big 12 – SU Win SU Loss
- Big 12 – ATS Win ATS Loss
For all other one-bid conferences just use – Other – and use that to track them. Do all of what is mentioned until the title game.
This gives you a composite look as to what is happening and invariably you can spot a trend. Case in point, when Connecticut won its first three games by 15 or more points after closing the season strong in 2023 and all the other top seeds were dropping, betting them to be champions of the heading into the Elite 8 was a wise wager.
