As a fan of the Houston club since its inception in 1962, it was not fun watching the Astros lose the 2023 ALCS to the Texas Rangers.
That disappointment was tempered somewhat, however, in seeing the reactions of my brothers and sisters from the northern reaches of the Lone Star State celebrate their first World Series title a week or so later.
It all pointed to great times ahead for the fans of the two Texas franchises, and the potential for the Lone Star State squads to be a force to reckon with for seasons to come, or at least the 2024 season when both ranked high on the MLB futures odds in the American League.
The Odds
That’s no longer the case at top MLB sportsbooks, especially for the Rangers. Texas was a +1200 choice to successfully defend their 2023 crown on Opening Day, but has since tumbled to +4500 at those same shops as the trade deadline approaches.
The first question that needs to be answered is not if the Rangers can win the World Series, but whether they can make the playoffs at all. How the front office acts in the next 48 hours will go a long way to determining that answer.
Increasing the number of playoff spots a few years back has turned the trade deadline into a seller’s market thanks to more teams being in the wild card hunt now.
The Rangers are well down the list of teams vying for a wild card at the moment, but they are still very much in the AL West race despite wallowing just below the .500 mark.
That has GM Chris Young facing a very tough decision: Does he turn the Rangers into sellers and add some potential for the future, or does he pay in prospects in order to add a players or two that could get the team back into the playoffs where, as we’ve seen, anything can happen?
With the decision to send starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen to Kansas City on Monday, it appears Young has decided the Rangers will be sellers. And that means no, they will not repeat as World Series champs.
The Pitching
There isn’t any question that Young would love to have a do-over on the decision to sign free-agent pitcher Jacob deGrom before the 2023 campaign. That immediately changed the MLB odds on Texas and made the team a viable choice to reach the playoffs last season.
That was about all it did for the Rangers, however, as Texas has so far received just a half-dozen appearances from deGrom for the 5-year, $185 million contract he was given.
Young then parted with prospect Luisangel Acuña – Ronald Jr’s younger brother – in order to bring Max Scherzer to Texas. Scherzer got into eight games for the Rangers before seeing his 2023 campaign come to an end due to injury, and he didn’t make his 2024 debut until June.
Even with those two expensive arms not contributing, the 2024 pitching staff has been a slight improvement over 2023. Nathan Eovaldi has led a very consistent rotation, and Kirby Yates tops a bullpen that is far better than the group manager Bruce Bochy had at his disposal during the 2023 regular season.
The Bats
No matter how much better the pitching might be this year compared to last, it hasn’t been nearly good enough to make up for an offense that has dropped off faster than a Sandy Koufax curve.
Texas bashed its way into the 2023 playoffs with an offense that led the AL in scoring (5.44 RPG) and tied for first with 233 home runs. As July draws to a close this season, the Rangers are eighth in scoring (4.26 RPG) and ninth with 111 home runs.
Every preseason publication raved about how the Texas lineup was going to be even better in 2024. The only problem Bochy was supposed to have was finding enough playing time for all of the talent, especially young outfielders Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford.
An early injury to third baseman Josh Jung didn’t help matters, but it certainly doesn’t explain Corey Seager’s 50-point drop in average, Marcus Semien’s 70-point drop in slugging, and Adolis Garcia’s all-around statistical plunge.
The Verdict
One facet of the Rangers’ game a year ago that was overlooked – and it gets overlooked for other teams as well – was defense. Texas was excellent in the field during the run to the World Series, and the Rangers have been solid with the leather once again.
But the continued fine defense hasn’t been near enough to make up for the shortcomings on offense, and now that Young has decided to sell at the deadline, there’s no reason to make the Rangers a pick to repeat.
