The College Football Playoffs enter the quarterfinals with a new overall favorite on the NCAAF futures odds at sharp sportsbooks.
It’s the transfer portal that is killing college football, according to one talking head. No, says another, it’s all that dadgum NIL money that’s killing college football. Others insist the CFP Selection Committee just got it all wrong and didn’t take the best 12 teams for the bracket.
Even the coaches – including some whose teams were selected for the College Football Playoffs – spent time raining about what’s wrong with the sport instead of building hype for the games.
With all the negative shatter, is it any wonder viewership was well below expectations for the first four matchups on this year’s expanded playoff schedule?
For those of us not worried about college football dying off anytime soon, we’re just looking for value on the NCAAF futures odds now that the field is down to eight teams.
Fiesta Bowl – (6) Penn State vs. (3) Boise State
The one certainty about this matchup between the Nittany Lions and Broncos is the fans will be far more comfortable in their seats at the stadium in Glendale, Arizona than they’d be at the seats where Penn State and Boise State call home in Pennsylvania and Idaho.
Many top sportsbooks report they have taken in more wagers on Boise State as an 11-point underdog since the line first went out with Penn State favored by 10. It is the first meeting between the two schools, and the New Year’s Eve total is running 53.
The Nittany Lions check in fourth on the futures list at +500 to win the CFP title, while the Broncos are seventh among the eight hopefuls at +3300.
Led by Ashton Jeanty, Boise State brings the nation’s 5th-best rushing attack into the contest against a Penn State defense ranked No. 7 in run defense. Jeanty needs 132 yards to set a new single-season rushing record set by Barry Sanders in 1988.
Peach Bowl – (5) Texas vs. (4) Arizona State
Following their convincing win over Clemson in the opening round, the Longhorns have stampeded to the top of the chart as the favorite to win it all. Texas was selling at +850 prior to the start of the season, and now shows up +300.
The Longhorns are burdened with the biggest spread to cover in the quarterfinals at -13½ over Arizona State, and it will be interesting to see if that moves to an even 14 on the NCAAB odds board before kickoff early on New Year’s Day.
This is only the second meeting between the two programs, with the first coming in the 2007 Holiday Bowl where the Longhorns scored at will in a 52-34 final.
Rose Bowl – (8) Ohio State vs. (1) Oregon
There was a lynch mob waiting for Ryan Day in Columbus after the loss to rival Michigan a month or so back. All was apparently forgiven when the Buckeyes blasted their way past the Tennessee Volunteers in the opening round of the playoffs.
That mob will be back if Ohio State drops a second game this season to Big Ten newcomer Oregon in the Granddaddy of Them All. Backing the Buckeyes requires laying 2½, with scoreboard punters facing 55 for the total.
While the Ducks entered the CFP as the top seed, they are running third behind Texas and Ohio State on the championship odds. The Buckeyes are fetching a +350 return, not far below the +400 they were listed at in August, while Oregon is +400 after beginning the season +650/
Ohio State holds a strong 9-2 advantage in previous matchups, the first of which came in a Buckeyes win at the 1958 Rose Bowl. The Ducks’ only two wins came in the last two meetings. They were 3½-point underdogs at home this past October when they kicked a field goal with under minutes remaining for a 32-31 triumph.
Sugar Bowl – (7) Notre Dame vs. (2) Georgia
The first time Notre Dame and Georgia got together on a gridiron was at the 1981 Sugar Bowl. Some dude named Herschel Walker ran for 153 yards and two scores to complete the Bulldogs’ unbeaten season for the National Championship.
Kirby Smart hopes this year’s Sugar Bowl leads to the same result, though Georgia will have to beat Notre Dame – and any subsequent opponents – without quarterback Carson Beck who recently underwent elbow surgery.
His absence hasn’t dulled the oddsmakers from favoring the Bulldogs against the Fighting Irish. Georgia is -2 at most shops, with the 44-point total representing the lowest of the quarterfinals.
Georgia has dipped on the futures market, however. After opening the season as the favorite to win it all at +280, the Bulldogs are now neck-&-neck with the Fighting Irish around +525.
