Just two weeks away from the unveiling of the first 12-team playoff in college football, the real postseason begins with a couple of knockout rivalries on the Week 14 NCAAF odds card.
Sure, turkey and dressing and pecan pies go a long way to making the Thanksgiving holiday special. Oh, and family, let’s not forget family.
But let us also not forget longtime college football rivalries that add spice to the festivities as the regular season winds down. Thanks to the release of the latest College Football Playoff rankings, the last week of the regular season has been transformed into the first week of the playoffs.
When the dust settles on Week 14, NCAA football futures will be adjusted prior to the conference championships, and now is the best time to get down on teams that seem assured of getting in, as well as those on the fringe.
Here’s a look at your full set of College Football Playoff selection committee rankings for games played through Saturday, November 23.
Where does your team rank as we head into the holiday and rivalry weekend?#CFBPlayoff 🏈🏆 pic.twitter.com/SkE4lhpFNT— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 27, 2024
Big Ten’s Big Four
The CFP Selection Committee is rightfully impressed with the Big Ten by including four teams from the league in its playoff mix. Oregon sits atop the list, followed by Ohio State (2), Penn State (4), and Indiana (10), and three of those four seem assured of making the final cut.
Indiana is the only one of the foursome that could be left out, but it would take an upset loss at home to Purdue in their season finale. Stranger things have happened, but with the Hoosiers favored by four touchdowns at top sportsbooks, it would seem unlikely.
Oregon is favored by 19 in its season-ender at home against Washington, Penn State is also at home and giving up 25 to Maryland, and Ohio State closes out against rival Michigan at The Shoe where Buckeye backers are asked to start the game with three touchdowns in the hole.
Should Irish Be On Upset Alert?
Notre Dame is No. 5 in the latest CFP rankings, seemingly a very safe slot ahead of traveling to Los Angeles to meet the USC Trojans to close out the season. The Fighting Irish are giving up 7½ on the NCAAF odds board in a rivalry that dates back nearly 100 years.
Here’s my rub on the Golden Domers being free of conference play: The Fighting Irish will make the playoffs even if they lose to the Trojans, but would likely be in a conference championship game next week if they were associated, where a third loss could knock them out.
There is a lot of money about to be dropped on conference championships, and Notre Dame is a very good argument why that’s still not worth it. Or a very good argument as to why more conference alignment will change before 2028.
The Mess That Is The SEC
Week 13 turned out to be unlucky for a trio of SEC teams – Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M – that fell in upsets, and also potentially cost the conference a chance to equal the Big Ten by sending four teams to the College Football Playoffs.
Or did it?
I said it before the season started, and still stand by my prediction the playoffs would include a 3-loss team from the SEC. Georgia could be that team with a rivalry matchup against Georgia Tech in Week 14 before facing either Texas or Texas A&M in the SEC title tilt.
Texas is in, even with a loss to Texas A&M this week in the renewal between the old foes. The Aggies have to beat the Longhorns, then beat the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship to make the CFP.
Tennessee looks safe at No. 8 in the CFP, but is sketchy chalk on the road at Vanderbilt. And don’t bet against Alabama not getting in as a 3-loss team.
SMU Making Most of First ACC Season
Think back to August and calculate what odds you could get on a college football pick that SMU would make the College Football Playoffs but Alabama wouldn’t.
The Mustangs have already clinched a spot in the ACC Championship, where they will meet either Miami (No. 6) or Clemson (No. 12). At most, two of those teams are headed to the playoffs because as good of a story as Rhett Lashlee and SMU have been, the Mustangs could be left out if they lose the conference title game.
Would you put it past the CFP committee to leave an 11-2 SMU team out and instead take a 9-3 or 10-3 SEC squad?
Big 12 A Distant 4th In Power 4 Rankings
For those thinking there won’t be a 3-loss team in the CFP, here’s your public service announcement there could be a couple of 3-loss teams in the Big 12 Championship before we ever get to the playoffs.
Heading into the final week, four teams are tied for first in the league: Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State. Each is 6-2 in conference play, and only the Buffaloes have what you’d call a ‘gimme’ on the Week 14 fixture.
And of course, this is all assuming the Big 12 doesn’t fall below Tulane from the AAC after play in Week 14 and the conference championships.
