Yet another one of those sports gambling questions that doesn’t have a single answer: When is the optimum time to make college football futures bets? There is no one-size-fits-all, and it’s a bit like asking Art Monk or Steve Largent how they timed their jukes and jives running pass routes.
(I’ll pause for a minute to allow Gen X-Y-Z Millennials to familiarize themselves with Art Monk and Steve Largent.)
What works for one bettor at NCAAF betting sites may not work for another, and the best answer for the best time can be found somewhere in the range from as soon as possible to never.
When Could Depend on the Type of Futures Bet
Deciding on what kind of college football futures bet to make is the most obvious first step, and that decision can influence when the best time is to make the play at a top-rated sportsbook.
For the recreational bettor just looking to throw a little support to their alma maters, making a bet as early as possible on a conference title might be best. Oddsmakers have been known to adjust the returns down during the excitement of spring practices and intrasquad games that have become so popular in recent years.
More serious bettors looking to play season win totals may want to wait until after those same spring practices and scrimmages in order to determine not only the depth charts of the team they’re backing, but also the talent level of the schools on their schedule.
The Pros of Betting Early
Back when Monk and Largent were first gaining attention as great wide receivers at Syracuse and Tulsa, respectively, NCAAF futures odds were not always available to bettors as early as they are today.
Barely had Michigan secured victory over Washington in last year’s College Football Playoffs, claiming the National Championship, when odds for the 2024-25 winner became available.
Kirby Smart and Georgia were tabbed as the favorites on the opening lines at online sportsbooks, going off with a +400 return. As it currently stands, that was the best time to bet the Bulldogs, who have now been reduced to +300 chalk at some outlets. That was also the best time to play Ohio State. The Buckeyes went out +800, and those odds have since been reduced by as much as half.
The flip side is Alabama. Early bettors who thought the Crimson Tide were the right pick to return to the CFP and win it all are holding tickets for +600. Alabama’s return has doubled in some cases following the retirement of Nick Saban.
The table below illustrates the amount of return that has been lost or gained by betting on next year’s champion early compared to current prices.
| School | Opening Odds | Current Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Georgia | +400 | +300 to +325 |
| Ohio State | +800 | +375 to +450 |
| Texas | +950 | +700 to +900 |
| Oregon | +1200 | +850 to +1000 |
| Alabama | +575 | +1200 to +1400 |
The Pros of Betting Late
The transfer portal is something else that didn’t exist when Monk and Largent were catching passes for the Orange and Golden Hurricane. Transfers from one school to another were few and far between back then, and now they are a dime a dozen.
Okay, NIL money far exceeds a dime, but you get my point.
The fluidity of college football rosters and depth charts today is a huge reason why many futures bettors feel waiting until at least after spring practices – if not summer drills – before making one’s picks and wagers.
Here again, the type of futures bet is crucial to when the bet is made. Bettors playing Heisman Trophy futures often want to get down before preseason publications with top Heisman contenders begin appearing. Voters are predisposed to favoring the stars getting the early pub.
Futures Bets Have Detractors
According to some, never is the best time to place a futures bet.
That might sound a little extreme, but critics do make some valid points on why there are more profitable ways to make money on the sports gambling scene.
One of the biggest knocks on making futures wagers is bettors are tying up money for long periods of time. Indeed, in those cases that money is laid down on college football picks soon after a champion is crowned for one season, dollars can be tied up for as many as 12 months.
Another reason some say to avoid futures bets is the juice is often higher than betting spreads on individual college football games. This can be especially true for futures wagers such as season win totals that frequently carry more than 20¢ of vig.
Just don’t believe comments about sharp bettors never play the futures market. That’s simply not true, and like every other facet of sports betting, the disciplined bettors can always find the best time to make futures wagers…and ultimately understand the positive cash flow that can come from eventually hedging those bets.
