When the BCS determined a national champ, we were treated to the No. 3 team in the nation voicing its displeasure in being left out of the big game. That lasted from 1998 through the 2013 season.
Then we had the College Football Playoffs for 10 years from 2014 through 2023. That system gave us four teams playing for the title, and also gave us the No. 5 team left to bemoan the injustice of being left out.
Now we have the new, improved and expanded CFP, with a dozen teams in the bracket to decide matters. So, we’ll have to listen to No. 13 whine and moan, and maybe Nos. 14 and 15 will cry into their social media accounts as well.
At least we know with two losses already, we probably won’t have to listen to the Florida State Seminoles for a second consecutive year.
How Many Spots Will SEC & B1G Claim?
Just who fills those 12 openings remains to be seen, but what we do know is four of those spots will go to the champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC, with a fifth going to the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5 (AAC, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt).
The NCAAF futures suggest both the SEC and Big Ten could receive four invites each. Georgia, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss are the top 4 in the SEC, with LSU and Missouri lurking. Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan lead Big Ten futures.
And then, of course, there’s Notre Dame still working the circuit as an independent and a favorite of the television networks who play a role in the process, whether they admit it or not.
Between the SEC, Big Ten, Fighting Irish and Group of 5, it could leave just three places for the ACC and Big 12, with two of those being filled by their eventual champions. With the Group of 5 invite likely going to a team ranked 15-20, it really means we’re looking for a Power 4 team ranked 12th.
That’s where our search for the school to be left on the outside looking in begins, the ACC and the Big 12 conferences.
Big 12 Runner-Up Has a Leg Up on Being Left Out
We know the Big 12 is going to be a beast among the Power 4, but the conference lost a lot of beef on the gridiron after Oklahoma and Texas defected to the SEC.
If there’s a Power 4 conference that only rates one entry by the College Football Playoffs Selection Committee, it’s the Big 12. Utah and Kansas State are the top two at sharp sportsbooks, with Oklahoma State third.
The scheduling that came out of the latest conference realignment finds the Utes and Wildcats not playing each other, and both playing the Cowboys. In fact, Oklahoma State hosts Utah and plays at Kansas State in back-to-back weeks (4 & 5).
So how about this scenario: The Cowboys win both of those games and survive a couple of late scares to go to the Big 12 Championship with an 8-1 conference record.
And let’s say their opponent is Utah or Kansas State, and either the Utes or the Wildcats score a late touchdown to beat Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are then left out of the CFP bracket with a 10-3 record while a couple of 3-loss teams from the SEC and Big Ten get in ahead of them.
That would not sit very well at all with Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy, who is now a 57-year-old man.
ACC Frontrunners Left in Week 1 Dust
One should always be cautious when it comes to Week 1 reactions. At the same time, the ACC is an early mess after Florida State lost both of its games and Clemson was powdered by the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs.
The fact both losses by the Seminoles were conference affairs, and came as double-digit chalk against Georgia Tech and Boston College, really hurts the conference on the national level. Florida State sported the thickest chalk line to win the league, while the Yellowjackets were 100/1 and Eagles 170/1 on the NCAAF odds.
Clemson was getting 10.5 against Georgia, and needed about three times that to simply push wagers in a 34-3 loss. So where does that leave the ACC?
It’s certainly not impossible for the Seminoles and Tigers to get back in the race, though in FSU’s case, Mike Norvell would need to win out. It does mean that the loser of the Clemson-Florida State game on October 5th is done.
Even with the rough start, the stage is set for what could be a very exciting ACC season, with Miami-FLA now in the driver’s seat. Riding shotgun are NC State and UNC, and don’t forget about ACC rookie SMU.
Clemson is my choice from the ACC to be left on the sidelines of the conference championship as well as the CFP despite recovering from the Georgia beatdown to go 9-3.
