With three weeks of action behind us, the college football season is beginning to come into focus and our handicapper has found three teams that should be faded at online sportsbooks in Week 4.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Friday, September 20, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Memorial Stadium
If you’re among those who had this Big Ten battle as a clash of unbeaten ranked teams before the season began, then congratulations are in order for correctly predicting the fast starts by the Illinois Fighting Illini and Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The conference opener for both teams finds the odds favoring Nebraska by 9.5 at most NCAAF betting sites.
Both Teams Relying on Defense
Bret Bielema takes the Fighting Illini out on the road for the first time this season. They enjoyed lopsided wins over Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan sandwiched around a close affair with Kansas, a game the Illini entered the fourth quarter trailing.
The defense did its job against the Jayhawks by forcing 4 turnovers, but the offense was stagnant, at best, especially the running game that was limited to under 80 yards on 34 totes.
The Fighting Illini won’t find it easy to run against the Nebraska defense. Matt Rhule’s Blackshirts allowed just 70 yards per game on the ground in their 3 wins over UTEP, Colorado and Northern Iowa, and only surrendered 20 points total in the contests.
Illini Have Won the Last 2 Trips to Lincoln
Illinois is looking for revenge after falling to Nebraska 20-7 last year in Champaign. Of course, the Cornhuskers also seek revenge after falling to the Illini on their last 2 visits to Lincoln.
Underdogs have cashed 4 of the last 5 meetings, and on a muggy evening at Memorial Stadium, Illinois will stay inside the number to make it 5 of the last 6. Fade Nebraska and take the Fighting Illini plus the points.
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Kyle Field
With a new quarterback under center, Texas A&M posted its first significant win of the Mike Elko era last week at Florida, and the Aggies hope to carry that over when they host the Bowling Green Falcons of the MAC.
It’s the first time these two programs have faced one another, and top-rated sportsbooks don’t believe it will be a very hospitable introduction with the Aggies favored by 23 in what promises to be another packed house in College Station.
Falcons Flying Out of Bye Week
Whether or not Connor Weigman is back at QB for Texas A&M remains to be seen. A shoulder injury kept Weigman out of the Florida game last week, and redshirt freshman Marcel Reed stepped in and directed the Aggies to the 33-20 win and cover.
The Aggies built a 20-0 lead in the first half behind Reed, who threw for 2 touchdowns and ran for another. Texas A&M recorded 3 picks, one returned for a touchdown, but also made numerous mental errors with 13 penalties.
Scott Loeffler and the Falcons took last week off following a tough loss at Penn State in Week 2. Bowling Green put up a strong fight and held a 24-20 lead over the Nittany Lions at halftime before falling 34-27. Penn State was favored by 34.
A Warm Night in Texas
The thermometer is going to climb into the upper-90s during the day on Saturday, and it will still be in the low-90s when this one boots at 6:30 p.m. local time.
Bowling Green brings a solid offense into College Station, and I’m still not convinced the Aggies are in sync on either side of the football. Fade Texas A&M in Week 4.
Kansas State Wildcats vs. BYU Cougars
Saturday, September 21, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium
We’re still trying to get used to the conference realignment that took place last year, and maybe eventually we’ll get used to thinking of Kansas State and Brigham Young as conference rivals.
For their first trip to Provo since 1977, the Wildcats are favored by 7 on the college football betting card, with most shops carrying 48 48 for the total.
‘Cats Rise to No. 13 in Latest AP
Kansas State had the Week 2 scare at Tulane where the Wildcats had to rally for a 34-27 decision as 9.5-point chalk. They recovered very nicely back home in a dominant 30-7 performance over then-No. 20 Arizona last week.
Listed with a win total of 4.5 before the season got underway, BYU appears well on its way to cashing the ‘over’ after winning and covering the first three games. One of those victories came in Dallas against an SMU team that was favored by 12.5.
Cougs’ Defense Keeps it Close
One of the last games on Saturday’s NCAAF picks card, there will be a touch of fall in the air with this one kicking off with the thermometer in the 60s before dropping into the 50s by game’s end.
The thermometer may find the 50s, but the scoreboard in this one never will, and it will be BYU’s defense that prevails to beat the spread. Fade K-State and take the points.
