The 2024 NFL draft was so historically in favor of offensive players that it could make for a small group of contenders for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Only 9 defenders were drafted in the 1st round, a record low in the common draft era.
Draft status is a huge predictor for this award too. Of the 58 players to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year since 1967, 81.0% of them were 1st-round picks and 79.3% of them were picked in the top 20. You have to go back to safety Erik McMillan in 1988 to find the last time a defender not drafted in the top 40 picks won this award, and safeties almost never win it (twice since 1967).
In this year’s draft class, only Laiatu Latu (Colts), Byron Murphy (Seahawks), Dallas Turner (Vikings) and Jared Verse (Rams) were drafted in the top 20 picks, and none of them went until Latu with the No. 15 pick.
Not surprisingly, those 4 defenders have the best odds (+1200 or better) at Bovada (check our Bovada Review), an NFL betting site, to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY) in the NFL’s 2024 season.
Let’s break down the challengers for this year’s DROY award in the NFL.
The New Favorite:
Laiatu Latu, Colts (+275)
You could shop around and find Laiatu Latu with +750 odds today as well. But right now, Latu is the new favorite at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review) and Bovada, jumping ahead of Dallas Turner shortly after the draft ended.
Edge rushers have an inherent advantage in winning this award as sacks are easily quantifiable plays and have a big impact on the game. Almost half of the winners have historically been edge rushers, including 4-of-5 winners since 2019.
The Colts need a consistent edge rusher, something they haven’t really had since Robert Mathis retired. Latu was very productive at UCLA with 10.5 sacks in 2022 and 13 sacks in 2023. His medical problems are hopefully a thing of the past, though Colts fans are familiar with their star players going through injuries.
New @Colts rookie Laiatu Latu’s High School Rugby highlights are 🔥
(via @Hudl) pic.twitter.com/LG6f5RUeha
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) May 8, 2024
However, Latu has a shot to instantly become the Colts’ best pass rusher in 2024, though even that is not a recent prerequisite for this award. Nick Bosa (2019 49ers), Chase Young (2020 Washington) and Will Anderson Jr. (2023 Texans) all recently won DROY while they had single-digit sacks and did not lead their team in sacks that season.
Of the 26 edge rushers to win DROY, 17 of them (65.4%) led their team in sacks that season.
The Alabama Standard:
Dallas Turner, Vikings (+325)
Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner was the favorite to go No. 8 to Atlanta and be the 1st defender off the board in the 2024 draft. But that never happened, and instead, the Vikings traded up to No. 17 to take him to replace Danielle Hunter as their top-edge rusher.
The good news is Hunter’s departure does open the door for Turner to step up right away as he tries to fill that void and production. But defensive coordinator Brian Flores could be like his mentor Bill Belichick and not want to heavily rely on the rookie, especially after the team added Jonathan Greenard (Texans) and Andrew Van Ginkel (Dolphins) this offseason.
Minnesota #Vikings OLB Dallas Turner is a walking highlight reel 🔥👀
🎥: @Vikings / IG pic.twitter.com/33wNLyM3xC
— The Purple Persuasion (@TPPSkol) April 29, 2024
The Vikings are also projected to finish last in the NFC North, and while being on a good defense and winning team isn’t a requirement for DROY as it is Defensive Player of the Year, it is harder to shine on defense if the rest of your defense isn’t good. Being on a good team also helps as it did for Will Anderson Jr. when he won the award last year for the playoff-bound Texans, who were not expected to go that far.
The Top Defensive Tackle:
Byron Murphy, Seahawks (+900)
Byron Murphy was the top defensive tackle prospect in this year’s draft, and it was no surprise to see the Seahawks take him with the No. 16 pick. New coach Mike Macdonald comes over from Baltimore where he had the No. 1 defense, and few players flourished better under him than defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who exploded in his 4th season with 13.0 sacks.
Murphy will hope he doesn’t need that many seasons to shine under Macdonald’s tutelage in Seattle, but a big rookie season at that interior position could launch him to win this award.
Byron Murphy II 2023 FULL CFB Highlights:
How are we feeling Seattle?
No troll if you skip to the last clip of his highlights he scores a touchdown🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/Aa0NbJsBmg
— Bando (@BandoKnowsBall) April 26, 2024
We’ll see if Macdonald moves Murphy around too and plays him some at edge rusher. The Seahawks right now are lacking a bit with natural pass rushers, so this draft pick was an important one.
The New Pass Rusher in LA:
Jared Verse, Rams (+1200)
Aaron Donald retired this offseason, so the Rams will be looking for a new legend to get after the passer. But finding a defensive tackle of that caliber is next to impossible, so we could see them target the edges more this year and attack that way.
The Rams already had a stellar 2023 draft class, and we’re not just talking about what wide receiver Puka Nacua did as a 5th-round pick. But a couple of 3rd-round picks stepped up too as Kobie Turner (9.0) and Byron Young (8.0) combined for 17.0 sacks last year.
Add a younger player in Verse to the group at outside linebacker, and the Rams might have enough to get by without their future 1st-ballot Hall of Famer in Donald.
Quick cut up of Jared Verse’s 8 pressures!!! vs Wake. Dominant showing
– 8 Pressures (Career High)
– Only 17 Pass Rush Snaps
– 35.3% Pass Rush Win Rate
– 47.1% Pressure Rate
– 85.4 Pass Rush Grade pic.twitter.com/yZhkOAIgHE— Clay Fink (@clay_fink) October 30, 2023
Also, this team can score, so that should present a decent share of leads and pass-rushing opportunities for Verse, who should be a Week 1 starter.
The Top Corner:
Quinyon Mitchell, Eagles (+1400)
The cornerbacks all slid in the 2024 NFL draft, but Toledo prospect Quinyon Mitchell was the top-rated corner by most draft experts. The Eagles snatched him up with the No. 22 pick, then they came up again in the 2nd round to take Iowa corner Cooper DeJean with the 40th pick.
DeJean has +2500 odds at Bovada to win DROY, which is 4th among corners this year while Mitchell (+1400) has the highest odds.
However, it is going to be hard for any corner on the Eagles to win this award when they still have veteran Darius Slay as their top corner, and starter James Bradberry is currently still on the roster despite falling off in a big way in 2023.
The Eagles knew their secondary was roasted all of last season and needed upgrades here, so the picks are smart. But to win DROY as a corner, you basically have to get a lot of interceptions or quickly develop a reputation for shutting down top receivers in coverage like Sauce Gardner did for the Jets in 2022 when he won.
That’s how Garnder became the only defensive back to win DROY with fewer than 3 interceptions. He allowed a very low completion rate and yards per target that year while drawing many tough assignments.
Sauce Gardner 2022 DROY season:
99.1 QB passer rating when targeted.
53.5% completion percentage when targeted.
Joey Porter Jr 2023 rookie stats:
72.4 QB passer rating when targeted.
49.2% completion percentage when targeted.
Steelers have their franchise CB. pic.twitter.com/EJ1BUg30I7
— Baku 🐧 (@Mazursky8895) January 5, 2024
In the NFC East, the Eagles are going to have to deal with the likes of CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, and maybe Malik Nabers will be a stud for the Giants. With Slay still there, we’re not feeling the appeal of Mitchell or DeJean to step up and win this award in 2024.
Similar things could be said of the other corners in Baltimore’s Nate Wiggins (+2200) and Detroit’s Terrion Arnold (+2200).
The Ravens still have studs in that secondary in corner Marlon Humphrey and safety Kyle Hamilton. They could always take away splash plays and impressive coverage stats from Wiggins.
As for Arnold, he joins a Detroit secondary that desperately needed to get better at corner after 5 straight passers shredded them for over 340 yards late in the season. Arnold isn’t a ballhawk either, so he might not get many interceptions this season, and with the way Detroit gets into high-scoring games, he should see his share of targets and yards allowed.
Like the 31 NFL teams at the draft this year outside of Philly, we’re not feeling the corners that much in 2024.
The Poor Man’s Micah Parsons:
Chop Robinson, Dolphins (+1600)
Until we see otherwise, we’re giving Chop Robinson the “Poor Man’s Micah Parsons” nickname as the Penn State prospect has some flash and potential like Parsons, the 2021 DROY. But he has a long way to go to live up to his fellow alumni.
In going to the Dolphins, Robinson may be a situational pass rusher in 2024 as he plays behind Bradley Chubb and 2021 1st-round pick Jaelan Phillips. The latter was injured last year, and Miami has picked up the 5th-year option on Phillips, so he is still a big part of the team’s plans this year and in 2025.
🗣️ “CHOP, CHOP!”
Enjoy five minutes of highlights from your newest Miami Dolphin, Chop Robinson 🪓🐬 pic.twitter.com/sn6nxPrRr6
— The Kevin Harlan Effect (@KevHarlanEffect) April 26, 2024
Robinson just may not see enough snaps to win DROY.
The Off-Ball Linebacker:
Edgerrin Cooper, Packers (+2500)
If a 2nd-round pick is going to win DROY this year, you have to like the value with linebacker Edgerrin Cooper on the Packers. The last 3 times since 1988 that a 2nd-round pick won DROY, it was always an off-ball linebacker like Kendrell Bell (2001 Steelers), DeMeco Ryans (2006 Texans), and Shaquille Leonard (2018 Colts).
Cooper was the top-rated inside linebacker in the draft this year. He should be a Week 1 starter in a new defense from coordinator Jeff Hafley, who comes over from the college game and is used to coaching up young players. It should be a breath of fresh air in Green Bay after the job Joe Barry did in recent years.
Edgerrin Cooper Highlights vs USC
Best LB in College Football pic.twitter.com/G1YK0GDFBp
— Aggie Highlights (@aggie_highlight) November 1, 2023
Expectations are high for the Packers to improve on the way they finished last year. Part of that can be an improved defense, so if Cooper can get over 100 tackles with a few splash plays like interceptions or forced fumbles, then he might be the dark horse to take this one should the edge rushers underperform.
Conclusion: Our Top Picks
Our most confident advice on how to approach this DROY field is to fade the corners, a position that has only won DROY 5 times since the Mel Blount Rule was created for the 1978 season.
If you’re going to get creative and fade the 1st-round defenders, all 9 of them, then Edgerrin Cooper is the value pick we like as the best off-ball linebacker. That’s still a position that voters value for this award even if we haven’t seen many great ones enter the league in recent years.
When you look at the top 4 pass rushers and players with the best odds, one thing stands out. Latu, Verse, and Turner all play for offensive-driven teams and head coaches. Something similar can be said of Murphy on the Seahawks with Geno Smith and his receivers, but it should be a new day in Seattle with Macdonald arriving as the new head coach. He has to fix that defense to get this team back on track.
Wouldn’t shun Latu or Verse as being good picks for award-winner parlays either, but we’re going with Murphy as our top pick to win it in Seattle, and Cooper is the best value pick this year in Green Bay.
NFL Pick: 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year – Byron Murphy (+900) at Bovada
NFL Pick: 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year – Edgerrin Cooper (+2500) at Bovada
