While officials and fans in Tuscaloosa and Coral Gables sob into their hankies, the rest of us are out here enjoying the holiday season, shopping for Christmas gifts, and also shopping for the best value on the NCAAF futures.
Everyone expected controversy and discontent to result when the first 12-team bracket for the College Football Playoffs was released, and Alabama and Miami made sure those expectations were met.
My advice to the ADs who believe they play too tough of a conference schedule is to not finish third or lower in your league, either that or check on potential openings in Conference USA and the American Athletic Conference.
As for the rest of us, we’re concerned with the first round of the CFP and following some of the early line movement for those games as well as the futures odds.
THE FIRST-EVER 12-TEAM CFP BRACKET IS SET 🔥 pic.twitter.com/LPwpoxdzLM
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 8, 2024
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas
The Selection Committee’s hands were tied as far as the first four seeds went, and nobody should have any problems with who they placed in the Nos. 5 and 6 seeds. The side effect of placing Texas in the No. 5 slot is the Longhorns appear to have the easiest path into the quarterfinals among the schools playing in the first round.
Not that this matchup with Clemson is going to be a cakewalk. It’s the Tigers who really cut the line ahead of Alabama and Miami by winning the ACC Championship on a walk-off field goal. Well, that and late losses to Oklahoma and Syracuse spoiled things for the Tide and ‘Canes.
Top sportsbooks seem to think it won’t be difficult, however. Steve Sarkisian’s squad is presently an 11-point favorite in the battle against Dabo Swinney’s bunch, the lone Power 4 conference champ not to receive a 1st-round bye.
Texas might be the fifth seed in the bracket, but the Longhorns are running second to Oregon on the CFP title odds, with some shops placing the two in a dead heat around +360.
Some of the 11-point burden Texas carries in the matchup against Clemson is getting to play that game in Austin. And part of the chalk to win it all stems from – assuming they beat the Tigers – the Longhorns would play Arizona State at the Peach Bowl in Atlanta in the quarterfinals.
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State
As mentioned, no argument from me or many others with the placement of Penn State in the 6-hole. The Nittany Lions suffered just two losses, both to CFP teams, and their path to the quarterfinals would first require a win over SMU before a New Year’s Eve matchup in the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State.
A quick check of the NCAAF odds finds Penn State chalked in the 8-9 range for the matchup against the Mustangs. The Nittany Lions come up fifth on the championship odds, fetching +650 to +700.
Southern Methodist has been proving prognosticators wrong all season, their first in the ACC. It will all be considered a fluke if the Mustangs fall in Happy Valley, meaning they should arrive at Penn State looking to upset the experts once again.
(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame
My only real disagreement with the seeding is I’d have put Ohio State No. 7 and Notre Dame No. 8, but that’s just picking nits. Besides, this All-Indiana clash carries its own intrigue, starting with the fact it’s the first time the Hoosiers and Fighting Irish have met since 1991, and only their second get-together since 1958.
Notre Dame backers are giving up 7½ in the opener of the 1st-round with a prime-time affair on Friday, December 20. The Fighting Irish rank just behind Penn State on the futures, while the Hoosiers have longer odds of anyone besides Clemson.
Indiana critics are going to point to a schedule that was among the weakest of the 12 teams in the playoffs. Unless the spread gets a little fatter for Notre Dame, the Hoosiers are going to be a tough sell among bettors.
(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State
If Ohio State doesn’t at least make it to the semifinals, Ryan Day will be looking for a new employer. Tennessee is going to do its best to pink slip Day in Round 1.
Getting to play at The Shoe in Columbus is a huge plus for the Buckeyes. Then again, it was supposed to be the same when Ohio State hosted Michigan, and that didn’t prove to be the case.
Ohio State backers are facing the same 7½-point spread against Tennessee that Notre Dame has with Indiana. The Buckeyes and Volunteers would easily turn into the most exciting opening round game, pitting two of the top-scoring offenses and defenses against one another.
The Buckeyes are showing up fourth on the futures list around +500 to win it all, while Tennessee has a +2500 return for anyone making the Volunteers their college football pick.
Regardless, it won’t be easy for either Ohio State or Tennessee to reach the semis since the winner will have to face top seed Oregon in the quarterfinals.
