It’s six o’clock on a cloudy October Saturday, and ESPN is showing highlights of the day’s college football action. Only they are not highlights for you, but rather clips from what has been a nightmarish day for your ego and your bankroll.
And then it hits you: There’s still plenty of action that evening that offers the chance to recoup your losses. Surely you can find value on the NCAAF odds available on the best college football betting sites for the contest in Boise on the Smurf Turf, and Oregon State is at home in Corvallis, plus there’s always a game out in Hawaii.
Before you know it, the chance to win back the dough dropped in the afternoon has only resulted in a deeper pool of red ink that you’re drowning in.
Chasing Value…or Chasing More Debt?
Let’s assume for a minute that you made good wagers, followed bankroll management, and didn’t just go crazy by throwing money on bad teams. Each of your bets followed your usual protocol and each had a value that exceeded standard implied probability:
Implied Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) x 100
One calculation that can never be made is just how that funny-shaped leather football is going to bounce sometimes, along with trying to gauge whether or not a bunch of 19-year-olds is going to be fully focused and mentally ready to play on any given Saturday.
There are such things as bad beats, contests that turn on a tipped pass, one missed block, or a busted play that ends up busting the spread at one of the sharp sportsbooks.
A disciplined bettor should have a plan not only for entering a college football season but for each individual week of action. Know your limits and stick to them. If that game in Boise didn’t have enough value to bet when the day started, walk away and regroup instead of making an unwise wager in an attempt to recover.
The General Rule Is Never Chase
It has long been one of the Ten Commandments of sports gambling, indeed the very first commandment on the list according to some: Thou shalt not chase.
One longtime friend who has enjoyed success betting on college football over the years has a personal rule of never betting on Saturdays. They research games early in the week, getting in on the value that some early spreads have, and usually have the bets they’re going to make that week done by Thursday.
Another bettor claims to never even look at games set to kick off after the middle of the afternoon on Saturday. True, that approach could leave sound wagers out of the mix, but whatever works to avoid chasing is always a good thing.
The technology we carry around in our phones is great, but can also be a double-edged sword. The opportunity to place a wager is just a swipe and a click away, making it even more difficult for some not to chase since they are never really away from the casino.
Check Your Emotions at the Door
Making a friendly wager with your best friend who is a graduate of your biggest rival is fine and dandy. Shout your allegiance and let your emotions show while talking smack and watching the contest at your favorite sports pub.
Otherwise, leave loyalty to your alma mater and your emotions completely out of the handicapping process.
It’s not easy. On one hand, you follow your team closely, know the depth chart, and have all of the latest information on injuries as well as living through so many of the betting trends State U. has with every other team in the conference.
The flip side is it’s difficult, impossible in many ways, not to factor in a little bit of your heart and soul when analyzing an upcoming contest from a betting angle. Or in the case of a rival, easy to subtract from the value in the odds for their games.
Staying away from those games completely is one way to leave emotions out, and that certainly goes double when it comes to chasing a loss by placing wagers on your favorite team, or the rival you hate the most.
Discipline & Perseverance Always Pay Off
Every successful college football bettor suffers through tough stretches when there are more losses than wins. Just as it can be for the fisherman, there are times the bait gets eaten and the stringers stay empty.
But every successful college football bettor is also disciplined enough not to just keep tossing out chum on those days when the fish just ain’t biting.
Having the self-control not to chase is part of strict bankroll management, it’s really that simple. Chasing losing wagers with ‘get-even’ bets, regardless of their value, is always a recipe for trouble. Always.
