A quick check of the latest Ken Pomeroy rankings shows Duke at the top. Clemson is the next ACC team at No. 20, with seven teams from the SEC, four from the Big 12 and another four from the Big Ten between the Blue Devils and Tigers.
Looking at ESPN’s BPI and the NCAA’s index rankings, it’s much the same story with Duke at or near the top while Clemson and Louisville lag significantly behind.
All of which points to the lack of depth in the ACC this season. The Blue Devils are the thin layer of cream on top, and heavily favored to win the conference on the college basketball futures. Duke is chalked anywhere from -400 to -800 to cut down the nets in Charlotte, and their closest competition is +800 or higher.
Duke Closes Slate at Rival UNC
It is as close to a lock to win a Power 5 conference title as bettors will find. But one place the Blue Devils aren’t so far ahead of everyone else in the ACC or the actual league standings.
Even after a rout of Miami on Tuesday, Duke is still just a game ahead of Louisville with Clemson a half-game back of the Cardinals. Those three are the only ACC teams ranked in the top 25 of the latest AP and coaches polls.
Jon Scheyer’s troops have three games remaining, and the Blue Devils won’t have to do much traveling over the final 10 days or so of the regular season. They will host Florida State and Wake Forest before a short bus trip to Chapel Hill to close out the schedule against rival North Carolina.
Duke certainly didn’t earn any Strength of Schedule points in the 37-point win over the Hurricanes, and the last three opponents will provide stiffer competition for the Blue Devils if they are to earn the top seed for the ACC Tournament.
It will be Duke’s first meeting of the year against the Seminoles. The Blue Devils beat the Demon Deacons on the road earlier this season, failing to cover as double-digit chalk at top sportsbooks, and covered a 13-point spread at home in the first clash with the Tar Heels.
The Ville Coming Off 6th-Straight Win
Louisville also picked up a dubya on Tuesday with a 71-66 win at Virginia Tech, and the Cardinals are heading to the finish line as hot as any other team. The victory marked their sixth in a row, and left the Cardinals 16-1 since a mid-December loss at rival Kentucky.
Pat Kelsey and his staff deserve a lot of credit for the quick turnaround at Louisville in just one short season. The Cardinals are coming off a disastrous 8-24 showing last season, and the biggest improvement has come on the defensive end of the floor.
They will need some help to unseat Duke as the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament, but the good news is the Cardinals get to stay home for the rest of the regular season with matchups against Pittsburgh, California and Stanford.
Louisville lost its one and only encounter with Duke way back in December, failing to cover the NCAAB odds as 8½-point home underdogs. That means the Blue Devils would have to drop two of their three final games for the Cardinals to slip into Charlotte as the No. 1 seed, and you can stick that in the fat chance file.
Tigers 9-2 ATS Last 11 Contests
Clemson has four games left, starting with a Wednesday evening home clash with Notre Dame, and the Tigers’ final three opponents also reside in the second half of the ACC standings: at Virginia, at Boston College and home against Virginia Tech.
The good news for Brad Brownell and the Tigers is they own the tiebreaker against Duke for the No. 1 seed should the two finish the regular season knotted.
That is because Clemson holds the distinction of handing the Blue Devils their only ACC loss so far, a 77-71 decision at home nearly three weeks ago. The Tigers overcame a 6-point halftime deficit to win by 6 as 6-point underdogs at sharp sportsbooks.
This is a balanced team, playing well on both ends of the floor and not prone to beating themselves with turnovers. Brownell’s bunch is also one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the nation, thanks to senior guard Chase Hunter and fellow senior Viktor Lahkin, a 6-11 center who can pull opposing bigs outside to open the lane for the Tigers.
Duke Worthy of Thick Chalk
Clemson and Louisville are each capable of knocking off Duke, with the Tigers getting a slight edge over the Cardinals given the fact they have already proven it by beating the Blue Devils.
In fact, Louisville and Clemson might be the only teams with a prayer to deny Duke the ACC Championship. There have been crazier upsets in conference tourneys, but no other team outside the Cardinals and Tigers will be a winning pick against the Blue Devils this time.
