Sir Paul McCartney may not have had college football on his mind in the late 60s when penning the lyrics for The Beatles’ final No. 1 hit, but the season really is a long and winding road.
Trying to maintain a level course amidst the weekly ups and downs each Saturday brings is a difficult enough of a task for fans, and it’s doubly tough on bettors trying to manage a bankroll that will take them into the bowl season.
Discipline is of the utmost importance when betting on college football, the discipline to learn from previous failures and adopt successful strategies to build that bankroll. Oh, and it never hurts to have a reliable sportsbook offering competitive lines from September to December.
Soft Lines & Hard Heads
There’s a common misconception that lines are softer at the beginning of a season, be it college football season or some other sport. The belief is that oddsmakers simply aren’t as astute and focused on Week 1 spreads as they are in Week 8.
If that was true, then why not sink your entire bankroll into NCAAF futures when those same oddsmakers are even dumber?
College football seasons, like everything else in life, evolve, and oddsmakers grow right alongside John Q. Public. Preseason scouting reports often prove incorrect, and books fine-tune their lines just as bettors adjust their reaction to favorites and underdogs.
That guy sitting down at the end of the bar talking about how he’s sinking half his bankroll into Week 1 games because the lines are soft? He’s the same guy who hollers about a bad beat in a game due to the referees not calling the other guys for holding on to a play in the second quarter.
His grandpappy probably told him about lines being softer early in the season, and his equally hard-headed father probably still believes Appalachian State’s win at Michigan in 2007 was a bad beat.
Early Season Mismatches vs. Late Season Mismatches
Speaking of that game in Ann Arbor 17 years ago, generally regarded as the biggest upset in college football history, many respectable shops didn’t even post NCAAF odds for the clash between the Mountaineers and Wolverines.
Those that did were giving defending FBS champ Appalachian State nearly 5 touchdowns, so it wasn’t the largest spread for an underdog to not only cover but win outright. While it made big news, betting David to fall the giant called Goliath early in a season is not recommended.
Personally, it’s not very much fun for yours truly, but betting heavy favorites (-35 or higher) used to be a profitable trend. However, that wasn’t true in 2023; of the 39 games closing -35 or greater during the first three weeks last season, chalk went 18-20-1 ATS.
There are more of those lopsided matches early in a season when teams are playing non-conference opponents – or even playing a level down – than there are games of that type late on the schedule. But they do exist, and the SEC teams frequently schedule November creampuffs.
There were four Week 12 games in November 2023 that closed with spreads of 35 or more, three with an SEC team laying the chalk. All four favorites won, but the underdogs covered three of them. Part of that is due to the favorite having a big rival or evenly matchup contest the following week, leading to coaches pumping the brakes.
Returning Starters & Transfers
From the days before the internet when all preseason magazines were hard-copy, to the present days of subscribing to online publications, one of the preeminent reports for college football bettors is the one produced by Phil Steele.
One of the key sections has always been returning starters, and it’s still crucial. But with all the transfers nowadays, it requires bettors to project how many of the returning starters could wind up on the second team.
Think about this: NCAAF rosters in 2016 on average consisted of 6.4% of the players transferring in according to SportSource Analytics. That percentage rose to over 20% in 2023 and will be even higher in 2024.
That makes the early-season matchups more of a mystery as new players adjust to new schemes and terminology, and coaches adjust to those new players.
New Coaches, New Conferences
While the number of players transferring from one school to the next has increased dramatically, the college football coaching carousel continues to turn and create its own period of adjustment.
New coaches used to be forced to wait a season or two before they could begin to make their mark on a program through recruiting, but that has been tempered a bit by the transfer portal. Still, it takes time to get everyone on board with new schemes, leading to a wait-&-see attitude early in a season before making college football picks.
And changes to the college football landscape are not limited to just players and coaches. Conference realignment is all the rage as the game goes through enormous changes.
Old rivalries will be renewed, as a result, and new rivalries will begin. Some of the new conference rivalries also warrant being patient and cautious, especially for those teams that are taking a step up from a Group of Five to a Power Five conference.
