From Feast Week to Finals Week on most campuses we go, and that means the college hoops schedule will be very light as schools head towards the Christmas break.
There are still some intriguing and consequential contests on the near horizon, with many conferences even taking a dip into the league schedule while most of the country is going gaga for the bowl season on the gridiron.
It makes for as good a time as any to step back and take inventory of what we’ve learned so far on the hardwood. Some teams are off to fast starts – surprisingly and as expected – on the court as well as at the window, while others are underachieving.
This has led to movement on NCAAB futures, leaving us wondering which teams will keep the good times rolling, and which teams might be facing tough roads ahead.
Tigers Talk of the SEC
There’s no better place to begin than the SEC. The conference occupies three of the top 4 slots in the latest AP – and hogs 9 of the top 25 – with Auburn, Tennessee and Kentucky sitting 2-3-4, each with 7-0 records.
Bruce Pearl’s cagers are getting a lot of attention after Auburn (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) brushed aside ranked Iowa State and North Carolina teams before beating Memphis to win the Maui. Top-rated sportsbooks have cut the Tigers’ odds by more than half to win the SEC as a result.
With all the fuss, we can expect some inflation on Auburn lines for upcoming games at Duke plus neutral-site affairs with Ohio State and Purdue prior to the start of the SEC slate.
Tennessee (7-0, 6-1) also has tough tests before the league schedule, with matchups against Syracuse, a neutral floor against Miami and at Illinois before Christmas.
Alabama (6-2, 3-5) was the clear favorite in the SEC before the season tipped, and the Crimson Tide looked good in beating Houston and Rutgers in the Players Era event. Alabama always carries a higher prices, however, and has battles with UNC and Creighton coming up.
Can UH & ‘Zona Regroup in Big 12?
Kansas and Houston were the top picks in the Big 12 before the season, but while the Jayhawks (7-0, SU, 4-3 ATS) have lived up to their hype as the top-ranked team in the country, the Cougars (4-3, 3-4) have not.
Kelvin Sampson and Houston still have time to correct things, and the Cougars are still playing some lights-out defense which is keeping them neck and neck with Kansas on the conference NCAAB futures odds.
A lack of defense has Arizona (3-4, 2-5) struggling through the first month or so of play. Tommy Lloyd’s Wildcats had a rough go at it at the Maui Invitational as part of a difficult early schedule.
Two Big 12 overachievers have been Utah (6-1, 6-1) and Arizona State (7-1, 6-2), a couple of longshots on the preseason odds chart.
We should expect market corrections for both the Utes and Sun Devils. Utah has been cruising along with a light slate, their only matchup against a Power 4 team resulting in a loss to Mississippi State, while Bobby Hurley and Arizona State are currently on the early bubble.
Marquette New King of Big East
Bobby’s younger brother Dan did not have a very fun trip to Hawaii over Thanksgiving. The 2-time defending champs were the top draw in the top tournament out in Maui, but UConn (5-3, 4-4 ATS) dropped all three games, both straight-up and against the spread, while Dan Hurley’s ire for officials turned into a tantrum.
The Huskies aren’t to be dismissed entirely, and those losses in Maui might actually add some value to their betting lines in games against Texas, Baylor and Gonzaga in advance of the Big East fixture.
Connecticut’s tumble lifts Shaka Smart and Marquette (8-0, 6-2) up the Big East ladder, but holding a top 5 slot in the polls won’t be easy with matchups at Iowa State and Dayton plus home against Wisconsin before the end of the year.
There’s also nothing easy about Creighton’s (5-3, 1-6-1) immediate schedule with Kansas and UNLV coming to Omaha before the Bluejays travel to Alabama. As advised earlier, do not sleep on Rick Pitino and St. John’s (6-2, 5-3).
Dayton Flying High
If we can all agree that Gonzaga (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) no longer qualifies as a mid-major despite playing in the WCC, then Dayton (6-2, 6-1) gets the nod as the top team not residing in a Power 4 conference.
Anthony Grant and the Flyers were close to beating both Iowa State and North Carolina out in Maui before they did beat UConn. We’ll know more when Dayton hosts Marquette and then takes on state rival Cincinnati before December closes.
Two more mid-majors bettors should watch in the coming weeks are Liberty (8-1, 6-1) and Middle Tennessee (6-2, 5-2). Conference USA was supposed to be Western Kentucky’s and Louisiana Tech’s playground this season, but the Flames and Blue Raiders appear to have other ideas.
