College basketball is not like the rest of the sports leagues. There are over 360 teams to follow in Division 1. How can you stay up to date with each team and consistently win at the best betting sites? We’ve got the winning formula.
Navigating a Vast Landscape
It can be a challenge to bet on college basketball throughout the season. This isn’t the NBA or a professional league. There aren’t just 30 teams to pay attention to.
Instead, Division I college basketball has 362 teams. It can be hard to follow each team and know every detail about every team.
Betting on college basketball is still one of the most exciting sports to bet on. The super quick ten-point swings and ridiculous plays happen all the time in college basketball.
That said, we’ll share some effective college basketball betting strategies so that you can profit consistently throughout the season.
The Four Factors
Like any sport, analytics matter. Most sharp bettors use analytics and numbers to back their thoughts.
In college basketball, there are four different numbers that are looked at much more closely.
Effective Field Goal Percentage
The first numbers you’ll want to look at are both teams’ effective field goal percentages. This proves how successful a team is from the field and gives us more of a complete picture from a shooting standpoint.
The average in Division I is currently about 50%. If a team is shooting below 50%, they’re below average. If a team is shooting above 50%, they’re shooting at an above-average rate.
But this doesn’t just get recorded for the offense.
You can see a team’s defensive effective field goal percentage. Some teams defend so well and force other teams to take worse shots than they normally take.
Therefore, make sure to check out the effective field goal percentages from both ends of the floor with both teams before betting on a game.
Turnover Percentage
The next factor is the turnover percentage. If a team turns the ball over a lot, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to score at a consistent pace. Instead of shooting the ball and even giving themselves a chance, there are teams that just make silly turnovers and mistakes throughout a game.
The league average is 17.9% of turnovers. If the offense turns the ball over more than 18% of the time, they’re giving up the ball at an above-average rate.
Meanwhile, on defense, if a team has earned at least 18% of steals, they’re above average.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage
The next factor is offensive rebounding. In college basketball, the average offensive rebounds for a team is 29.6%.
If a team is earning more than 29.6% offensive rebounds, they’re above average on the offensive glass.
Meanwhile, if a defense has allowed fewer than 29.6% of offensive rebounds, they’re above average on the defensive boards.
Looking at rebounding numbers will help identify if a team will earn more second chances on the same possession.
A team may miss shots at an average rate. But if they’re effective on the glass and put up more shots than the other team, they’ll end up scoring at a higher rate.
Free Throw Attempt/Field Goal Attempt
Finally, you’re going to want to look at the free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio. The current average is at 33.4.
If the ratio is higher than 33.4, you’re getting to the foul line at a higher rate. If it’s lower, the team is not getting to the line often.
Earning foul shots at the charity stripe is huge. You can earn points with the clock stopped. That’s something you’ll need to take into account.
Know Your Team
When betting on a team, you’re going to want to see if they’ve covered games previously. If a team is 1-11 against the spread, you might not want to pick them as your top bet.
Instead, you’d want to put a system together that would fade teams that are 1-11 against the spread. There’s money to be made betting against a team like that, not for!
Trends
I’m not the biggest fan of trends. But some trends can be helpful to be a profitable bettor. It is something that many bettors look at to craft an effective college basketball betting system.
For example, maybe Duke is 8-2-1 against the spread, and you already like them to cover in their next game. That would be a solid additional nugget that will make you more confident in your wager.
Don’t use trends to make an argument. Use trends to help an argument.
Live Betting
I talked about how many college basketball games have heavy swings. You can use that to your advantage in the second half of a college basketball game.
Do some research about which teams typically come back in the second half and which teams tend to blow leads in the second half. Then use that information to live bet the second half and earn money.
