According to the NCAAF betting sites, spreads remain the most popular way to bet on college football games, in terms of both betting volume and handle, and probably always will when stacked up against moneylines and totals.
Too many bettors, however, completely ignore totals, and that’s a shame since the scoreboard targets are more straightforward wagers and offer chances for boosting a bankroll for players that do a little homework.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
For the benefit of bettors new to the game, college football totals are simply the number of total points scored in a game by both teams combined. It doesn’t matter which team wins or covers a spread, but whether the final score goes ‘over’ or ‘under’ the number set at top sportsbooks.
Some bettors will add a totals play to a spread or moneyline to build a parlay, or even combine two or more totals to make a parlay.
It’s very rare these days for totals to be in the 20s, though they still occur, with the low-40s generally where one will find the smallest totals for a given week. The other end of the scale finds the upper-60s for the usual highest numbers on a weekly card.
The 2024 Week 0/Week 1 range currently runs from 43½ on the Miami (OH)/Northwestern contest to 65½ for the North Texas/South Alabama matchup.
John Q. Public Loves Lots of Points
More times than not, the ‘over’ is the more popular totals play for a game. Oddsmakers do what they can to balance the action and handle for a game, but bettors aren’t always willing to cooperate.
The College Football Playoff Championship game in January between Michigan and Washington is a prime example. Nearly two-thirds of the wagers, and almost 55% of the handle, was on the final going past the NCAAF odds, with the total closing 55½ at most shops.
Sportsbooks ended up being more than happy to take those ‘over’ bets when the final was 34-13 in the Wolverines’ favor.
Successful players avoid the ‘over’ trap that the public and recreational bettors often set for themselves. In addition to offensive and defensive stats, search for numbers regarding the percentage of tickets vs. the handle, or money percentage.
You can never arm yourself with too much information, and while cheering for your ‘over’ might be more fun while watching a game, going to the pay window with an ‘under’ winner after the game is far more fun.
It Ain’t That Simple
Too many people make the mistake of looking at the average number of points Team A scores and allows, and crunching those stats against the average number of points Team B scores and allows. It’s far more involved.
Those stats are important but must be tempered by the opponents they came against. Did Team A put a 66-3 beatdown on Sisters of the Poor early, and hasn’t topped 40 since? Did Team B allow a bunch of points off turnovers in the first few weeks, but has since learned to take care of the football?
From 2021-23, games that closed with totals less than what the two teams were averaging finished ‘under’ the mark more than 58% of the time. Don’t play the fool and hammer those games to go ‘over’ the totals.
When betting spreads, the key numbers are 3 and 7, for obvious reasons. Key numbers are way different for totals bettors to look for, and here are the five most common total scores since 2017 (per actionnetwork.com):
- 55 (3.85% of finals)
- 51 (3.22%)
- 41 (2.84%)
- 59 (2.81%)
- 58 (2.77%)
History Can Be a Help or a Hindrance
There is a lot to be said about historical betting trends, especially against a pair of old and disagreeable rivals. And just as some rivalries lean heavily to one side or the other in terms of wins and losses, that same can be true for ‘over’ and ‘under’ tendencies.
It’s always great to have that information, but it also needs to be initially taken with a grain of salt. The coaching carousel has been particularly active in recent seasons, and the arrival of a new coach is accompanied by the arrival of new offensive systems and defensive philosophies.
Injuries Are Always a Concern
There’s no difference between handicapping a game for a play on the spread and handicapping a game for a play in the total as far as injuries go. Having the latest information on which players are suiting up on Saturday is essential to making a smart play on a game total.
Oddsmakers will adjust totals down if the star quarterback or stud tailback is out, and that can work in a bettor’s favor if they are hip to the depth chart and believe a backup is not a step down in talent.
“Neither Rain, Nor Snow, Nor Sleet…”
The old saying about postal carriers always delivering the mail despite the weather fits college football. Lightning has stopped games before, but they go on as scheduled otherwise even in oppressive heat, bitter cold, or precipitation of all kinds.
All meteorological conditions need to be considered, but wind is probably the No. 1 concern when making a winning NCAAF pick on a total. Bettors need to consider stadium layout, as well as construction for how much wind can affect the passing and kicking games.
