In basketball, players will go hot and cold from the field. That’s just how it goes. There will be hot stretches and cold stretches for almost every player in basketball, especially at the college level.
But the one area that stays consistent is rebounding. Rebounding is an effort stat. If you have a poor night shooting, it happens. If you have a poor night because you didn’t give the same effort, that’s a problem.
You can’t have a bad rebounding night or be inconsistent on the glass if you give the same effort each game. Plus, winning the rebounding game and defending at a high level are multiple ways to put your team in a position to win, even if the ball isn’t going through the net consistently on offense.
Below, we’ll discuss ways to handicap a player’s total rebounds at the top sportsbooks during this year’s March Madness.
Effective Field Goal Percentages
Before betting on an Over or Under for a rebound prop bet, you’re going to want to look at the effective field goal percentages of both teams.
If a team struggles from the field and misses many shots, taking the Over for the best rebounder might be the way to go. However, if a team typically gets easy looks around the rim and doesn’t miss many shots, there would be fewer opportunities for a player to grab rebounds.
If the opposition’s effective field goal percentage is above average, it’s less likely that there will be a high number of rebounds to grab. On the other hand, while it’s less common, there are offensive rebounds up for grabs too.
You can also look at the effective field goal percentage of the player you’re looking to bet’s team. If the team struggles from downtown and takes a bunch of threes, and you want the Over with rebounds with the team’s center, that could be a solid look.
Rebounding Percentages
You’ll also want to look at rebounding data. If one team is adding 30% of offensive rebounds and going up against a defense that allows more than 30% of offensive rebounds, there will likely be more opportunities for rebounds.
On the other hand, if a team has held opponents to just 25% of offensive rebounds and is good on the defensive glass, there will likely be less opportunity for the player to add a high amount of rebounds.
With that data, you’d likely want to consider betting the Under on the rebound prop.
Imagine a 7’4″ center with footwork.
That’s @zach_edey.
Watch as he easily snags this rebound and soon after finishes under the basket with the foul. pic.twitter.com/BugNfgzr6D— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) March 3, 2021
Turnovers
This stat isn’t looked at enough. If a team is turning the ball over 20% of the time, there will be fewer shots that go up in the game. You need to take that into account.
If both teams are turning the ball over at very high rates and typically earn a high rate of turnovers, there will be fewer shots. But if you’re betting on a game between two offenses that don’t turn the ball over often, you’ll likely get a reasonable amount of shots in the game to hit a rebound bet.
In games with more turnovers, consider the Under for a rebounds prop. In a game with little turnovers, think about backing the Over.
Foul History
You will also want to check out a player’s foul history. If a player is always in foul trouble, they’ll likely have to ride the bench for a larger portion of the game. A player can’t grab rebounds on the bench!
On the other hand, you’ll also want to review a team’s foul history. There are some aggressive teams in March Madness. These teams will force a ton of turnovers but also foul at a very high rate.
You probably don’t want to bet on an Under for a player’s rebounds in March Madness if there are a ton of fouls and foul shots. In March Madness, things get crazy, and the pressure is wild. There will be misses at the foul line that would result in more rebounding opportunities.
Pace Of Play
Finally, pay attention to the pace of play. In a fast game between two teams, there will be more shots and opportunities to earn rebounds. On the other hand, in a slow game, it might take 25 seconds to get a shot up each possession.
That would hurt a player’s chances of getting a high amount of rebounds. In that case, you’d want to take the Under for rebounds in a projected slow game in the NCAA Tournament this year.
