One of the biggest markets in the NHL right now is player props, and there is a whole range of bets to choose from with the top-rated NHL sportsbooks, from goalscorers to shots on goal and much more.
Betting on player props can add a lot more depth to your betting and it allows you to focus on one individual performance instead of handicapping an entire game, but it’s not as easy as it sounds so check out our top three tips for beginners when betting on these NHL player props.
1. Don’t Lay the Juice / Look for Value
Okay so this might sound like an advanced tip but believe us if you want to win long-term on NHL player prop markets, laying juice is not and never will be a good proposition.
So our first tip is don’t lay juice unless it’s specifically for the shots over/under market and even then be cautious when laying juice. Let’s elaborate, laying juice on player props is not a wise thing to do long-term if you’re only betting now and again for a bit of fun or interest in the game, by all means, go ahead and have your fun, but if you’re taking this serious then don’t lay juice.
Exception to the Rule
The shots market is the only exception, but even then you need to do your research and be cautious with the bets you’re making. As an example, right now Nikita Kucherov is on fire with the most points in the league, but betting on him to see over 1.5 points on any given night is roughly around -125, but he has only done so in 28 of his 53 appearances.
Nikita Kucherov’s Hart Trophy case getting stronger by the day…@NHLNetwork #OntheFly pic.twitter.com/aZH1kOVkcf
— Mike Kelly (@MikeKellyNHL) February 16, 2024
What does this mean? Well, 28 wins in 53 games is only a hit rate of 52% meaning on any given night you should be looking at +100 odds at least to even consider this bet. The sportsbooks will often give you lesser odds on things that just don’t happen that much.
Finding Value
One final quick example that might be a little easier to understand. David Pastrnak is the league’s top shot taker, so let’s say his line is set at 4.5 to go over or under shots and the sportsbooks are offering us -115 for him to see 5+ shots on any given night. Well, his 53-game stats tell us he has only done so on 50% of occasions this season which should be coming in at +100 odds and not the -115 the sportsbooks are offering.
Laying juice on a player’s over/under shots is an exception, but in the long run, it is better to look at alternative lines, like instead of over 3.5 shots at -110, take over 4.5 shots at +150, of course depending on the situation and matchups, this leads us to our second tip.
Don’t miss out on today’s #NHL player props, featuring David Pastrnak and the Chicago Blackhawks.@OblivionSports‘ prop picks 👇 #NHLPickshttps://t.co/b8U1ZTo6uR
— Bookmakers Review (@BMRReviews) March 14, 2023
2. Consider Matchups
This might sound like an obvious one, and it kind of is but you would be surprised how many people think because so and so can bang in the goals on any given night that they will continue to do so, wrong.
You might have the league’s top goalscorer coming up against the best defense or best goaltender in the league, the sportsbooks will often entice you to bet him to score by boosting his odds up, but his odds are boosted for a reason. Ask yourself the simple questions like:
- Will his team even win?
- How many goals will or can they score?
- Is he likely to be one of the goalscorers?
These are questions you need to ask yourself for every player prop you take in the NHL, from shots on goal to assists, points and goals.
3. Research Players / Recent Performances
One of the most important approaches when betting player props is a player’s recent performances, especially in the specific market you are looking to bet. It’s easier to ride a player on a hot streak than it is on someone who will hit now and again.
2⃣3⃣ – Fabian #Zetterlund records 23 points with a goal and an assist tonight, drawing his career high (2022-23, 23):
23 Points 2022-23 in 67 games played (#MWild, Sharks)
23 points 2023-24 in 54 games#NHLStats #HockeyTwitter #SJSharks #CBJvsSJS— SHARKS FACTS & STATS – Andrea Sala (@SjSharksFACTS) February 18, 2024
Another important factor is researching a player in-depth, for example, some players might be much better on home ice at achieving a specific stat, and vice versa. Maybe a certain team might give up a bunch of powerplays, whilst their opponents could have the top goalscorer on the powerplay on the season.
This is in-depth research and vital when looking to get one up on the sportsbooks.
