What a difference a few weeks can make on the college football betting schedule.
We are used to change taking place rapidly in any given season, but we certainly didn’t expect to see the top two favorites for the Heisman Trophy in August to tumble well back in the pack by the time of October’s arrival.
Maybe we should have seen it coming since we all knew 2024 was going to be full of the unknown and the unexpected following radical conference realignment and the expansion of the College Football Playoffs. It only makes sense for the Heisman futures at online sportsbooks to be a part of that.
Milroe, Crimson Tide Rolling Right Along
Most of the offseason talk about Alabama centered on a coaching change, and for good reason. After all, it was Nick Saban who was leaving the Tuscaloosa sidelines after an illustrious career that netted the Crimson Tide six National Championships from 2007-23.
All eyes were on how the Crimson Tide would adjust to Kalen DeBoer taking over for the legendary head coach, and Alabama took a step back on NCAAF futures in general.
While Saban may have left his job, Jalen Milroe is still on the job as Crimson Tide quarterback and has risen to the top of the list of Heisman contenders one month into the campaign. A +1500 choice in early-June, Milroe is now in the +200 to +225 range.
A big reason for Milroe’s jump was the huge win over Georgia in Week 5, and we all know that things can turn the other way just as quickly. Milroe finally got to play a full game, and responded by going 27-33 for 374 yards and a pair of scores through the air. He also topped the 100-yard rushing plateau and scored 2 additional touchdowns with his legs for the fourth consecutive game to begin the season.
The good news is Alabama’s offensive line has been doing a great job for an offense that is top 20 in scoring and total offense. They’ll need to keep doing that with a schedule that still includes road trips to Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
Beck & Ewers Take Giant Steps Back
While Milroe was listed 5th-8th at the top sportsbooks to win the Heisman, Carson Beck of Georgia and Quinn Ewers of Texas were at the top of the board. Both have fallen well back on the list.
With Georgia on the losing end to Milroe and Alabama, Beck tumbled all the way out of the top 10 on the Heisman chart. The senior was priced +750 back in June, and now shows up in the +2500 to +3000 range. Beck did throw for a season-high 439 yards in the 41-34 defeat, but the Bulldogs were also having to play catch-up the whole way. And, oh yeah, he threw 3 picks as well.
That effort was preceded by Beck and Georgia having a tough time against Kentucky, a game the Bulldogs pulled out 13-12 after being favored by 3 touchdowns. Like Milroe and Alabama – and anyone in the SEC – a tough schedule is ahead for Beck and the Bulldogs.
One of their matchups will be Week 8 in Austin against Ewers and the Longhorns. Ewers has also dropped from a +750 return in the preseason to the +2000 to +2500 range after being injured in Week 3 and sitting out the last two weeks.
The junior suffered an abdominal injury in the 56-7 win over UTSA one week after leading the Longhorns to a dominating win at Michigan. In his place, Arch Manning stepped in and finished off the UTSA rout before leading Texas to a rout of Louisiana-Monroe and a 35-13 thumping of Mississippi State in the Longhorns’ SEC debut.
Texas has Week 6 off, and Ewers is expected to be back the following week to start against Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout.
Ward & Gabriel Lurking in Shadows
There are Heisman hopefuls outside the SEC, in case you were wondering, and Cam Ward of the Miami Hurricanes is the current top challenger to Milroe.
Ward has already thrown for nearly 1,800 yards and 18 touchdowns to lead the Hurricanes to a 5-0 start. They had a close call against Virginia Tech, but got past the Hokies. He opened +2200 to win the Heisman, and Ward is now +550 on the NCAAF odds.
Dillon Gabriel has seen his Heisman odds get a little longer despite helping Oregon to a 4-0 start. Gabriel was +1000 before the season and is now +1400 despite the senior transfer averaging nearly 300 yards per game with a 9:1 TD-to-interception ratio.
Ashton Jeanty wasn’t even listed at many NCAAF betting sites back in August and has risen to a top 5 favorite now at +1000 to win the Heisman. The Boise State tailback leads the nation with 845 yards rushing, ripping it off at 10.3 yards per carry and scoring 13 times.
Jeanty and the Broncos are a nice story, but it would take a lot of stars to align for him to beat out the stars at one of the Power 4 schools.
