If you plan on attending a watch party for Super Bowl LVIII, there is a chance your friends already know you are a football nerd. Having stats and historical Super Bowl trends ready to fire off is just what they’ll expect of you.
Maybe you are a Taylor Swift fan with football knowledge that doesn’t really extend beyond Travis Kelce is great at his job. Or, you are looking to play some obscure markets at the top offshore sportsbooks.
Well, you’ve all stumbled to the right place as we have a collection of easy-to-digest stats and trends about the Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers leading up to Super Bowl LVIII.
Dig in and be ready to drop some stats, like the following, this Sunday night.
Most games allowing < 28 points in NFL history (playoffs included)
1. 2023 Chiefs – 20
2. 2000 Ravens – 19 🏆
2. 2002 Buccaneers – 19 🏆
2. 2005 Steelers – 19 🏆
2. 2010 Packers – 19 🏆The 17-game season helps KC here but…
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) January 31, 2024
Game Info
- Super Bowl LVIII: San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, February 11, 2024
- Time: 06:30 PM ET
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Reds vs. Whites
Some tried to make a big stink out of the Chiefs, the designated home team, choosing to wear their red jerseys in this Super Bowl while the 49ers will wear their whites. Sixteen of the last 19 Super Bowl winners wore white jerseys.
But guess what happened 4 years ago in Super Bowl LIV? The Chiefs wore their red jerseys when they came back to beat the white-cladded 49ers by a 31-20 final. So much for that.
Red is a color that humans perceive as aggressive and dominant. We’ll see if the Chiefs prevail once again in their reds.
The Rare Head Coach Rematch
We rarely see a Super Bowl rematch this close in time with the teams meeting just 4 years ago. Andy Reid (Chiefs) and Kyle Shanahan (49ers) are of course still the head coaches, but this makes it only the 4th Super Bowl in history where coaches will meet in a rematch.
The bad news for Shanahan is the last 3 Super Bowls all ended with a sweep by the coach who won the 1st game:
- Chuck Noll’s Steelers defeated Tom Landry’s Cowboys in 1975 and 1978.
- Jimmy Johnson’s Cowboys defeated Marv Levy’s Bills in 1992 and 1993.
- Tom Coughlin’s Giants defeated Bill Belichick’s Patriots in 2007 and 2011.
Shanahan also lost the most recent rematch, a 44-23 defeat last season in San Francisco. He is 0-3 against Andy Reid.
The Race to 24?
Can this Super Bowl be framed as the race to 24 points?
Since 2022, the 49ers are 25-0 and the Chiefs are 23-1 when they score at least 24 points, the best records in the league in that time.
When these teams met in Super Bowl LIV, the Chiefs came back from a 20-10 deficit to take a 24-20 lead. It could have ended on that score, but they added another touchdown they didn’t necessarily need with just over a minute left to win 31-20.
When these teams met last year, the 49ers made it 28-23 early in the 4th quarter, but the 49ers were blown out from there and lost 44-23. They couldn’t get to that 24-point threshold that day, a game that was actually the San Francisco debut for Christian McCaffrey and the first passes (and interception) thrown by Brock Purdy in an NFL game.
Now they’re leading the 49ers in a race to 24 points against Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
In 2022, the #Chiefs played the 49ers and did a good job taking advantage of Nick Bosa’s own aggression off the line
Wasted him on these plays with quick-hitters to his side, or a well-timed screen pass. It’s something you see them do with Maxx Crosby too pic.twitter.com/14FKxOP7z6
— Ron Kopp Jr. (@Ron_Kopp) February 8, 2024
Always Said the Chiefs Look Like the 1925 Yellow Jackets
Kansas City’s defense has been great since Week 1 and is as big of a reason why the team is in this game as anything. But who would have imagined they would be this consistent?
The 2023 Chiefs join the 1925 Frankford Yellow Jackets and 2000 Ravens as the only teams in NFL history to hold 19 opponents under 25 points in a season (playoffs included).
Per, @NFL_Scorigami , the only 5-3 in NFL history was Frankford Yellow Jackets 5, New York Giants 3 in 1925.
— Pj (@TheAzmon) October 24, 2021
Only the Packers managed to score 27 points against Kansas City, so they can become the 1st team to hold 21 opponents under 28 points in a single season if they do it to the 49ers. The 17th game helps but this is still elite company for the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have done a great job against the pass, holding all 20 opponents under 260 net passing yards, something only the 2006 Colts, another Super Bowl winner, did in a single season.
Brock Purdy = Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0?
Going into Super Bowl LIV, Jimmy Garoppolo was 21-5 as the starting quarterback for the 49ers with elite efficiency statistics in his career.
Going into Super Bowl LVIII, Brock Purdy is 21-5 as the starting quarterback for the 49ers with elite efficiency statistics in his career.
Is it déjà vu all over again? We’ll see, but Purdy has better deep ball accuracy and mobility than Garoppolo ever did. He led the league in most passing metrics this season.
Purdy is going to be the 3rd-youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. The 5 youngest quarterbacks all threw an interception in the big game. He’ll be under a microscope for this one, but it’s one of the unlikeliest success stories in NFL history if he pulls this one off against a team looking to secure a dynasty status.
With Mahomes in his 4th Super Bowl and Purdy in his 1st, quarterbacks with at least 3 more Super Bowl starts are 7-3 in the big game.
We’ll see if Mr. Irrelevant can shake up the NFL world with a career-changing win.
Patrick Mahomes: Top (Under)Dog
The Chiefs may be a 2.5-point underdog in this game, but that role has served them well. Patrick Mahomes is 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog with the Chiefs.
Mahomes has been unbelievable in those games and the Chiefs have already won road playoff games against the Bills and Ravens this year. They were a slight underdog against the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl too. Mahomes won Super Bowl MVP despite playing with a high-ankle sprain. He is healthy this time.
The underdog is 7-4 SU in the Super Bowl since 2011.
But the Chiefs are not your typical underdog. They may be the best to ever do it.
The Kirk Cousins Curse
Maybe the 49ers are a team of destiny because they did something no one else has done this season.
Kirk Cousins was 0-12 as a starter against teams that reached the Super Bowl that season. He lost to the Chiefs in Week 5, dropping him to 0-13 and 13 just so happens to be Taylor Swift’s lucky number. But Cousins was able to beat the 49ers in Week 7, ending the losing streak as the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl anyway.
Cousins is still 0-6 as a starter against Super Bowl winners. Will that record go to 0-7 with the Chiefs winning this game, or did the 49ers break the Cousins curse after 13 games?
The Kirk Cousins curse has been beaten! pic.twitter.com/zecFlNsjnd
— 𝙆𝙖𝙨𝙚 (𝙋𝙂) (@verysadvikings) January 29, 2024
The Super Bowl Repeat Drought
Winning the Super Bowl is very hard but winning back-to-back is insane. There’s a reason no one has done it in almost 20 years.
With no one repeating since the 2003-04 Patriots, this is still the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion.
But the Chiefs are a game away from doing it, the same position they were in 3 years ago when they lost to Tampa Bay. In fact, the teams who were 1 win away from repeating started 8-3 in the Super Bowl before going 0-3 in the last decade with the 2014 Seahawks, 2017 Patriots and 2020 Chiefs all losing their repeat chance.
If the Chiefs win this game, they’ll become the 1st team in NFL history to beat 4 opponents in the postseason who all had a plus-100 scoring differential (Dolphins, Bills, Ravens and 49ers).
The Super Bowl MVP Drought for Backs and Tight Ends
We know quarterbacks on the winning team win almost 60% of the Super Bowl MVP awards, but this game presents some interesting choices with other positions.
Christian McCaffrey or Isiah Pacheco could become the 1st running back to win Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis on the 1997 Broncos.
McCaffrey is the non-quarterback favorite for the award as he is the most likely player to score multiple touchdowns in this game, something he has done in both playoff games already. He also can be valuable as a receiver and given the way people don’t trust Purdy, it could be CMC’s award to win.
George I can’t find any running backs or tight ends on this Super Bowl MVP list since 1997 pic.twitter.com/5fPJ8aLONX
— Syse (@alexsyse) January 28, 2024
This game also features the best tight ends in the league over the last 5 years, Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Both finished with exactly 6 catches for 98 yards when the teams met in 2022.
However, no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP.
Could that change this year? Kelce is obviously a mega-star now and everyone knows who his girlfriend is and she is making quite the trip from Japan to be there for this game.
Kelce averages 78.8 receiving yards when Taylor Swift is at the game this year (12 games) compared to 50.0 yards without her there (6 games).
Kelce has a tough task to outshine Mahomes if the Chiefs win, but he kind of just did that in the AFC Championship Game, a performance that likely would have earned him an MVP award if they gave one out for that.
We’ll see what he has for an encore on the biggest stage.
🚨 #SuperBowl LVIII MVP Odds (via @betonline_ag):
🏆 Patrick Mahomes: -125
🏆 Brock Purdy: +225
🏆 Christian McCaffrey: +450
🏆 Travis Kelce: +1000
🏆 The field: +1800Who do you think wins it? 🤔
📊🔗 Find the best odds for all of your SB props: https://t.co/SckwkaHYVj pic.twitter.com/Wa90gGNmz8
— Bookmakers Review (@BMRReviews) January 30, 2024
Expect a Close Finish
While Super Bowls used to be lopsided games you could turn off early, that has not been the case since the late 1990s. Eighteen of the last 20 Super Bowls have been within a single score in the 4th quarter.
The only recent blowouts were Super Bowl LV when the Chiefs lost 31-9 to Tampa Bay and Super Bowl XLVIII when the Broncos lost 43-8 to Seattle.
The final score may not always show it, but this should be a close game that goes down to the 4th quarter too. The 49ers were 1-4 in close games in the regular season, but they have won a pair of playoff games by 3 points each. Only the 2021 Rams have ever won 3 straight playoff games by 1-to-3 points.
Brock Purdy has led a game-winning drive in the last 3 playoff games he started and finished. Purdy already has more game-winning drives (3) in his playoff career than Peyton Manning (2), Aaron Rodgers (2), Brett Favre (2), Roger Staubach (2) and Johnny Unitas (2) had in their playoff careers.
But Kyle Shanahan is 0-38 with the 49ers when trailing by at least 8 points in the 4th quarter, the only team in the NFL without a win in that situation since 2017.
The only teams to win a Super Bowl after trailing by 15+ points in the postseason:
2006 Colts (Peyton)
2016 Patriots (Brady)
2019 Chiefs (Mahomes)Wouldn’t recommend it for the heart. https://t.co/vcP0UWHj2f
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) February 3, 2020
The Chiefs have already come back from a double-digit deficit in both of their Super Bowl wins with Mahomes. Can another be in store, or will this be a role reversal with the 49ers making the comeback?
The Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime this season, but the 49ers scored the most points after halftime this season.
Buckle up.
