If there’s one thing we’ve learned about American voters, it’s that they can be easily duped, have no regard for past failures, and are often blindly loyal to their nominee despite a mountain of facts and stats telling them otherwise.
And that’s just when it comes to picking a president.
Those traits can also show up among the Baseball Writers’ Association of America when choosing the American League Cy Young, but at least there’s far less hanging in the balance picking the top pitcher compared to picking the president.
Attrition Led to Unanimity in 2023
Those biases and idiosyncrasies still existed in 2023 when the BBWAA conducted its AL Cy Young voting, but circumstances almost guaranteed the voters couldn’t get it wrong. Just to refresh our memories, here were the top 8 favorites on the MLB futures odds at the top baseball betting sites entering the season:
- Jacob deGrom +600
- Gerrit Cole +600
- Dylan Cease +800
- Alek Manoah +900
- Carlos Rodon +1000
- Shohei Ohtani +1000
- Shane McClanahan +1200
- Shane Bieber +1300
Preseason co-favorite Gerrit Cole came through to score one for chalk, and did so in landslide fashion. Cole was a unanimous pick, garnering all 30 votes at the top of the ballots, and there wasn’t anything flukey about his league-leading ERA, WHIP and win percentage.
What was a bit flukey, however, was that none of the other seven names on that list above finished in the top 12 due to injuries and/or poor pitching. Jacob deGrom, the biggest free agent from the 2022-23 offseason, only made six starts for his new club in Texas before needing surgery. Shohei Ohtani made it through 23 starts before blowing an elbow out.
Dylan Cease and Alek Manoah were huge disappointments after giving every appearance they would be forces to reckon with for years to come. Cease and Manoah finished 2-3 in 2022 behind Justin Verlander, also a unanimous AL Cy Young winner as a preseason favorite.
The lesson we’ve learned over the last two years is veteran chalk often beats youthful underdogs.
K’s Are King
A pitcher’s stats are weighted differently by each and every BBWAA voter, no different than bettors having their own crucial list of numbers before going to the sportsbooks to place their wagers. But one stat that is important to all voters is strikeouts.
Cole finished third in the American League in the column in 2023. Verlander was seventh in 2022. Robbie Ray and Shane Bieber each led the majors in strikeouts when they picked up the award in 2021 and 2020, respectively.
You have to go back to 2016 to find the last time an AL Cy Young winner didn’t have more strikeouts than innings pitched. Rick Porcello was a somewhat controversial pick that season, recording fewer 1st-place votes (8) than Verlander (14).
A pair of voters from Tampa, Fred Goodall of The Associated Press and Bill Chastain of MLB.com, left Verlander completely off their ballots in 2016. That prompted Verlander’s wife, model Kate Upton, to tweet, “I thought I was the only one allowed to %$#@ (Verlander).”
Hey @MLB I thought I was the only person allowed to fuck @JustinVerlander ?! What 2 writers didn’t have him on their ballot?
— Kate Upton (@KateUpton) November 16, 2016
The lesson we learn here: No matter how well he performs on the mound, a pitcher can’t sway the prejudices and ignorance of some BBWAA members.
Relievers Face Uphill Battle
Another statistical category that ranks high with the voters is GS: Games Started.
Even with starting pitchers working fewer and fewer innings, it’s difficult for a reliever to get much notice from the voters. In 2023, only two relievers – Baltimore’s Felix Bautista and Boston’s Chris Martin – were acknowledged by the BBWAA, finishing 11th and 12th, respectively.
The last reliever to win the AL Cy Young Award was Dennis Eckersley in 1992. Only three other AL recipients have been relievers: Willie Hernandez (1984), Rollie Fingers (1981) and Sparky Lyle (1977). Eckersley, Hernandez and Fingers were also named AL MVP in those seasons.
The lesson learned here: To beat the MLB odds and win the AL Cy Young, a reliever has to really blow the socks off the BBWAA voters.
