When the Cy Young Award was introduced in the 1950s, only one award was given out between the two leagues. Don Newcombe and Warren Spahn began an early domination by NL hurlers with the first two awards, and by the time both leagues got their own in 1967, it was thought they might have named it for the wrong pitcher.
A southpaw named Sandy Koufax took it home three times in the last four seasons only one Cy Young trophy was handed out (1963-66), and his domination was the primary reason the American League wanted its own piece of hardware.
There’s no doubt Koufax would have been prohibitive chalk at MLB sportsbooks to take home the 1967 NL award, but he abruptly announced his retirement early that offseason. It could be argued the National League hasn’t had such a dominant pitcher since.
Lesson No. 1: Where Have the Dubyas Gone?
That isn’t to say there aren’t talented pitchers in the NL these days, but there haven’t been what one might call monster numbers posted by recent Cy Young winners in the Senior Circuit as the table shows:
Even taking into account the shortened 2020 campaign due to the flu, as well as the evolution of the game with starting pitchers now expected to just get through the fifth, those are some puny win totals.
Our education here is purely historical: Koufax won 78 games during his three CY seasons (1963, 1965-66); the last six winners of full seasons (2017-19, 1921-23) combined for 76 wins.
Lesson No. 2: Chalk Goes Poof!
Let’s just say it wasn’t a good year to make a chalk play for your MLB pick last year in National League Cy Young betting. Here are the top 9 bets entering the 2023 season at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review):
- Sandy Alcantara +475
- Corbin Burnes +500
- Justin Verlander +600
- Max Scherzer +750
- Spencer Strider +1100
- Aaron Nola +1200
- Max Fried +1200
- Zac Gallen +1600
- Zack Wheeler +1600
Gallen, Strider, Wheeler and Burnes came through with successful seasons but finished 3-4-6-8 in the voting. Sandy Alcantara was coming off the NL CY in 2022 mostly because no other marquee pitcher had a big season. And neither Verlander nor Scherzer finished the season in the NL after the debacle in Flushing.
The lesson learned is that trusting Mets management was probably a mistake to begin with.
Lesson No. 3: Never Give Up
True story: There was this guy who was a real bad chaser, especially betting baseball. You know the type, drops a chunk in a Cubs-Cardinals matinée at Wrigley, drinks a fifth bitching about the umpires, then double-downs on a Mariners-Angels matchup later that evening.
Anyway, he took a bath in the 1988 NLCS betting the Mets, threw his arms up and played Los Angeles as a big ‘dog in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series against heavily favored Oakland. When Jose Canseco slapped a slam in the second inning to put the A’s ahead, he tore up his slip.
No, it wasn’t me, nor was it Mitch Cumstein (inside Caddyshack joke). But my buddy was the guy who would have given up on last year’s NL winner, Blake Snell.
Snell opened last year in the 30/1 to 40/1 range, and the MLB futures return got even fatter when he was 1-6 with a 5.40 ERA after nine starts. The southpaw pitched to a miniscule 1.20 ERA the rest of the way (135 IP), and became the seventh to claim Cy Youngs in both leagues after winning AL honors in 2018.
The lesson we learn here is two-part: 1) Never tear up bet slips when the action is still alive, and; 2) Beware of Snell in 2024 after he led the NL in walks in 2023, the first time an NL Cy Young winner did that.
The 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner is Blake Snell! pic.twitter.com/gaupYTuhur
— MLB (@MLB) November 15, 2023
Lesson No. 4: Is it Time for Relievers to Get Some Love?
Just as things have gone for relievers over in the AL, National League bullpens continue to get overlooked in Cy Young voting despite their increasing performance.
Only four have won the award in the NL: Mike Marshall (1974), Steve Bedrosian (1987), Mark Davis (1989) and Eric Gagne (2003). But with the decline in win totals among recent winners, maybe an MLB odds play on ‘the field’ is in order for the National League in 2024.
