There are rankings and polls galore in college basketball these days, and just how much of an effect they have on the betting odds is a subject worthy of study and discussion.
From the very moment two cavemen squared off in a rock throwing competition, rankings have been a big part of all sports. As soon as Trog and Gork completed their tosses, some accountant-type caveman in the crowd came up with his rankings and power ratings, as well as some betting lines to apply to the next competition.
There has been a relationship between the college basketball odds at the top NCAAB sportsbooks and rankings almost from the moment James Naismith nailed his first peach basket on poll, and what many people may not understand is it’s a relationship that goes both ways.
Bettors Don’t Lack for Stats & News
The thing to understand about the relationship is that anything that influences how John Q. Public views a college basketball game will impact how oddsmakers set their lines. And John Q. Public has all the rankings, stats and other data to use when deciding to make a wager.
That wasn’t always the case. Going back just 30 years in time, college basketball bettors had to really dig for information and numbers the sportsbooks were using to set the lines. Rankings ended at No. 20, so John Q. and his pals back then might see No. 4 next to State U., but nothing next to North Polytechnic Institute.
When the NCAA Tournament or NIT were done, information for college basketball bettors dried up for about six months. I know from experience that it was tough to get a futures bet down before the middle of November going back to the 1970s and before. Every injury, transfer, recruit signing, summer league stats and more are available 365 days a year now.
Are Old-School Conventional Rankings Out of Date?
Not only were the different sports leagues seasonal back on the proverbial good ol’ days, there were really only two set of rankings available to Mr. Public and his wagering buddies.
The Associated Press and Coaches polls were the be-all, end-all when it came to rankings not that long ago, and each had staunch proponents and opponents. Whether it was Scribe McGee’s opinion or Coach Dugan’s, that all it really was, an opinion, and the conventional rankings made a bigger impression on the betting public in those days.
Those writers and coaches were influenced by many factors when casting their votes, and yes, statistics were part of their decisions. But they were also influenced by geography, especially the writers who wanted to please their local readers, and coaches who wanted to boost their own programs or conferences.
Back in those times, you wouldn’t dare hear a voter in either poll mention anything about odds or covering spreads. That is no longer the case with sports betting woven into everything from the broadcast of games down to barstool discussions.
Whereas oddsmakers factor in the tendencies and patterns of the betting public, the voters in the two polls – especially the AP – are now factoring in whether or not a team is covering spreads or meeting expectations.
Rankings Available in All Sizes & Styles
College basketball bettors now have more than just the opinions of sportswriters and coaches to go by. That doesn’t mean old-fashioned eye tests no longer have a place in the process for bettors, just that more objective rankings and ratings are available.
In fact, there are so many more available that it can often be a daunting task for bettors to narrow the field and find a system that fits best for them. From Ken Pomeroy to Dunkel, from NET to BPI, from Sagarin to Dolphin and everything in between, there is no shortage of data.
The KenPom rankings continue to be a very popular resource for bettors, and sharp sportsbooks definitely know that. The system uses stats galore to break every team down – 362 of them for the 2023-24 campaign – instead of just the top 25, and one of the more crucial algorithms is the Strength of Schedule column.
NET rankings are a big tool for the NCAA Selection Committee, and once again, oddsmakers react to the committee’s seeding decisions.
That doesn’t always mean the sportsbooks or bettors agree with the committee, as we saw in one of the 7/10 matchups at the 2023 NCAA Tournament. No. 10 Utah State was favored by a bucket over No. 7 Missouri, with the Tigers posting the mild upset.
Balancing Fact and Opinion Can be Tricky
It’s dangerous to trust only our eyes – or any human’s vote in a poll – and it’s equally risky to only go by statistics when making a college basketball pick.
Polls and rankings – from the conventional polls to the dozens of power rankings – impact how spreads and totals are set, that much is a given. How bettors balance the eye test with a computer’s strength of schedule calculation, that’s a bit trickier.
Dedicated to the memory of Bob Knight who never gave a damn about any rankings, especially the AP poll.
