Look hard enough throughout the best NFL betting sites and you can find a betting market for most things in the NFL these days. It is even possible to find Super Bowl MVP futures markets for the next season’s Super Bowl shortly after the current season’s big game ends.
But the time of year when you are typically going to start seeing those odds become available is near the end of the regular season when the playoffs are coming, and several teams start to clinch playoff berths.
How should you tackle the Super Bowl MVP market? We have included 3 tips for a profitable handicap that can apply to Super Bowl 58 or future seasons as well.
🚨 #SuperBowl LVIII MVP Odds (via @betonline_ag):
🏆 Patrick Mahomes: -125
🏆 Brock Purdy: +225
🏆 Christian McCaffrey: +450
🏆 Travis Kelce: +1000
🏆 The field: +1800Who do you think wins it? 🤔
📊🔗 Find the best odds for all of your SB props: https://t.co/SckwkaHYVj pic.twitter.com/Wa90gGNmz8
— Bookmakers Review (@BMRReviews) January 30, 2024
Tip No. 1: Understand the Typical Super Bowl MVP Winner These Days
Most people probably know by now that the Super Bowl MVP has been dominated by the quarterback position. A quarterback has won the award in 32-of-57 games (56.1%). When in doubt, pick the quarterback on the team you expect to win.
That’s the other big cheat code for predicting a Super Bowl MVP. It is almost certainly going to someone on the winning team as only Chuck Howley (Super Bowl V) won it for Dallas on a losing team in the Super Bowl.
Dallas linebacker Chuck Howley bringing down Baltimore running back Norm Bulaich in Super Bowl V, a 16-13 Colts’ victory on a last-second field goal. Howley intercepted two passes in being named game MVP, the only one in history from the losing team.
— Ellannoyed (@wes_konsin) January 23, 2024
A quarterback on a winning team is your gut choice, but you also have to understand where the league has been lately. From 2005-2012, there were a lot of upsets in the playoffs with multiple No. 6 seeds (2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers) winning Super Bowls, many No. 1 seeds flopping in the playoffs, and some crazy title runs from quarterbacks not expected to pull it off on the road like Joe Flacco and Eli Manning (twice).
But since 2013, chalk has really dominated with No. 1 seeds making up 13-of-20 (65%) Super Bowl teams in the last decade. Half of the last 10 Super Bowls were between No. 1 seeds. Eight of the last 10 Super Bowls were all No. 1 or No. 2 seeds. The only exceptions were the early COVID years of 2020 (Tom Brady crashing the party with No. 5 Buccaneers) and 2021 (both No. 4 seeds).
Basically, for the 2023 season, you could have placed Super Bowl MVP bets on Christmas night on Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy and had a good shot at winning. We did not say Christian McCaffrey because, surprisingly, no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis (1998 Broncos). You also should know that no rookie quarterback has ever reached the Super Bowl, so betting on C.J. Stroud (Texans) this year or on Brock Purdy in 2022 would have been a likely donation.
George I can’t find any running backs or tight ends on this Super Bowl MVP list since 1997 pic.twitter.com/5fPJ8aLONX
— Syse (@alexsyse) January 28, 2024
But with things have been chalky since 2013, check out the last 10 winners of the Super Bowl MVP award with some notes on the player’s season, their role, and their team’s seed and Super Bowl spread:
| Year | Player | POS | Player Note | Team | Seed | Super Bowl Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Regular Season MVP | KC | 1 | Eagles -1.5 |
| 2022 | Cooper Kupp | WR | Triple Crown Receiver | LAR | 4 | Rams -4 |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | QB | GOAT | TB | 5 | Chiefs -3 |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Regular Season MVP | KC | 2 | Chiefs -1.5 |
| 2019 | Julian Edelman | WR | Team’s No. 1 WR | NE | 2 | Patriots -2 |
| 2018 | Nick Foles | QB | Backup QB | PHI | 1 | Patriots -4.5 |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | QB | GOAT | NE | 1 | Patriots -3 |
| 2016 | Von Miller | Edge | Team Sack Leader/All-Pro | DEN | 1 | Panthers -5 |
| 2015 | Tom Brady | QB | GOAT | NE | 1 | PK |
| 2014 | Malcolm Smith | LB | Random LB | SEA | 1 | Broncos -2.5 |
Some notes here:
- The underdog is 5-4 SU since 2013 in the Super Bowl (2014 was a pick’em)
- While 60% were quarterbacks, every pick was fairly logical except for Malcolm Smith, a minor contributor to a great Seattle defense in a game that was a huge blowout
- If you’re not taking a quarterback, you have to consider a team’s No. 1 receiver (Kupp and Edelman) or the best pass rusher (Von Miller).
In a year like 2013 when Malcolm Smith won for being in the right place at the right time on an interception, no logic would have saved you from arriving at that pick. But in a lot of these years, it was a player that made sense with some of the most popular quarterbacks in the game or someone having a truly dominant year like Kupp in 2021 or Von Miller in 2015.
With Patrick Mahomes, he is having that Brady-like run where you can never go wrong betting on him in the postseason. But also betting on the likes of Lamar Jackson and Purdy would have made plenty of sense too late in this season.
#Packers return stud Desmond Howard takes one 99 yards to the house in Super Bowl XXXI.
The fourth kickoff return — and at that time the longest — in Super Bowl history.
MVP
January 26, 1997 pic.twitter.com/77VTcdeZvN
— Kevin Gallagher (@KevG163) January 27, 2024
Tip No 2: Hedge Before the Playoffs Start
Ideally, you might want to sprinkle some bets in before the playoffs on some long shots. For example, picking Jared Goff to go on a Nick Foles or Joe Flacco type of run wouldn’t have been a bad idea since we are seemingly overdue for one of those crazy runs. The Lions did have that No. 3 seed this year, though few probably imagined the Cowboys would implode like they did in the Wild Card round.
Jordan Love of the Packers also could have been a bold pick, but you generally want a team that’s had some previous playoff experience.
Since the 8-division format went into effect in 2002, 16 of the last 21 Super Bowl winners (76.2%) made the playoffs the previous season.
But you could also justify making your main bet early as the odds will be higher with the full field intact before teams start getting eliminated. So, if you thought Mahomes was going to pull it off last season when he had the No. 1 seed again and was going to win MVP, then doing it before the wild card round would have been wise. Then you just had to sweat out his high-ankle sprain and a couple of razor-tight wins over the Bengals and Eagles, but that’s just how the playoffs usually go. It’s that close!
Former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner says he is “aware” of the MVP Super Bowl curse ahead of tonight’s #NFLHonors ceremony. pic.twitter.com/PvPqS3XP9d
— AP NFL (@AP_NFL) February 10, 2023
But an interesting note about Mahomes (and Jackson this year) is the so-called curse of the MVP winner. Kurt Warner won MVP in 1999 with the Rams and also won Super Bowl MVP that same year. But no one else was able to win MVP and the Super Bowl in the same season until Mahomes broke the drought last year for the Chiefs. Many came close but lost in the Super Bowl, going 0-9 in the process.
Typically, someone who wins MVP has a flawed defense that is usually not championship caliber. But that can change again this year as Lamar Jackson is expected to win MVP, but he also has the No. 1 defense supporting him. So, it is possible we see back-to-back years where the regular season MVP wins the Super Bowl.
Tip No. 3: Final Hedge Before the Super Bowl
Finally, if you get to the Super Bowl week and your main targets, especially at quarterback, are still in the game, then you should feel in great shape.
At that point, you just want to make your final hedges. Maybe you need to look at the No. 1 wide receivers and focus on the one who has been having a dominant postseason like Kupp did in 2021 or Edelman in 2018 or even Santonio Holmes (2008 Steelers). For this year going into Championship Sunday, Amon-Ra St. Brown (+10000) would be a nice long shot should the Lions shock the 49ers and shock the world in the Super Bowl.
The last step should be looking at some of those defenders who have longshot odds (+3000 or higher) but could have that Malcolm Smith (2013 Seahawks), Dexter Jackson (2002 Buccaneers), or Larry Brown (1995 Cowboys) type of night with a big touchdown or a couple of turnovers.
For this season, a longshot defender could be someone like Kyle Hamilton on the Ravens (+40000 going into Championship Sunday) or Nick Bosa on the 49ers (+15000).
Super Bowl MVP Malcom Smith in his parade at Disney World today (Photo: Kent Phillips for Walt Disney World) pic.twitter.com/lC6hnCRwOP
— FOX 13 Seattle (@fox13seattle) February 3, 2014
