Over the last decade or more, pitchers suffering debilitating injuries and needing Tommy John surgery or lengthy stays on the injured list have become part of the game. There is a laundry list of reasons why this is more prevalent despite pitchers throwing fewer innings than the last generation and all contribute to the problem.
While it is awful to see talented hurlers who are the foundation of their team’s pitching staff go down with injuries that might dramatically impact any club, just like the manager who has to work with the 26 players on his roster, those betting on baseball at MLB betting sites have to make adjustments.
There is no Tommy John surge this spring — it’s just always this bad since ~2014. Today marks the 100th day of the year, a period during when most elbow injuries occur. We looked at the first 100 days of each year re: TJS procedures for MLB and all pro pitchers since Tommy John… pic.twitter.com/smNQQ3bo2Q
— Travis Sawchik (@Travis_Sawchik) April 10, 2024
Injuries Are Part of the Game and You Adjust
As you look at all 30 teams, many of those that are playoff contenders have two quality or at least reliable starters. When these two hurlers are back-to-back in the rotation and throwing in the same series, the general inclination is this team will be favored twice. If either pitcher suffers an injury that will keep him out a month or to the next season, your perception probably changes or you start formulating questions.
- Is the rest of the starting rotation talented enough to move up one spot to offset the loss?
- Does the bullpen have enough depth to likely face an increased workload with a top pitcher gone?
- Can the offense cover up a modest drop from the pitching staff by scoring more runs in some games?
These and other questions don’t need immediate answers, but the more astute baseball bettor is now aware of aspects to pay attention to moving forward.
Consider the Possibilities, Just Don’t Overreact to Injuries
In today’s social media world, people are quick to make in-the-moment judgments. In many cases, those are top-of-the-mind thinking without a great deal of thought given to the larger picture.
“You can’t say it’s not the pitch clock; it’s only been there for 2 years, but I’ve been researching this for 25 years with the best orthopedic surgeons in the business. Even before this rash of injuries.”
Former MLB Pitcher @RobDibbleShow takes GoJo and Golic on a deep dive… pic.twitter.com/CRRQR8s7wF
— GoJo and Golic (@GoJoandGolic) April 12, 2024
Let’s review the 2023 World Series winner Texas Rangers.
The consensus was the Rangers had enough offense to win more games than they would lose and acquiring Jacob deGrom was the ace that would stabilize the starting staff. deGrom made six starts at just past 30 innings before having to undergo surgery.
Immediately, those on the Texas bandwagon hopped off because there wasn’t enough starting pitching. As the season played out, Nathan Eovaldi rose to the occasion, Dane Dunning was a complete surprise and Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney held their own to go along with a strong offense.
Texas made a late-season move for Max Scherzer and the Rangers looked like a contender. Then Mad Max’s balky back began acting up and in the postseason, he tried but couldn’t continue and once again the conversation turned to “The Rangers are finished.” Well, we know how that and similar statements did not wear well by early November.
The important part of handicapping change is having an open mind and watching how things evolve. Perception is not always reality and those who end up having the most betting success are those who are willing to understand how the picture changes and make the necessary adjustments when needed.
Never Forget This When Betting Baseball
Over 26+ weeks, the vast majority of 30 baseball teams play six days a week or more. Every five games there is a different starting pitcher facing a different team, changing the circumstances continually, as compared to any other sport for betting.
For those who immerse themselves into “the daily grind” and work with a level perspective and open mind, they are not unlike a baseball hitter. You will go through hot streaks and slumps, having to make continual adjustments to have success.
Those who follow that philosophy and don’t have a knee-jerk reaction to what happens daily set themselves up for more profits.
