You can always find value in MLB futures bets at MLB betting sites. One of the most popular futures bets is wagering on the MLB Home Run Leader.
However, out of all the batters in the MLB, only one person can be the home run leader. Winning an MLB Home Run Leader for the regular season requires a batter to stay healthy throughout the season. It also requires the hitter to avoid month-long slumps, which occasionally happen to even the best hitters in the MLB.
Below, we’ll provide some tips for betting on the MLB Home Run Leader for the regular season.
Strategy No. 1: Consistency
When you’re looking for a player or two to wager on, you’ll want to consider the player’s track record.
- Has the player played at least 130 games in each of the last three years?
- Has the player’s slugging percentage been super high over the last few seasons?
- Are his numbers drastically increasing over the last few seasons?
These are questions you’re going to want to ask yourself. You can also look at different projections and models.
Fangraphs, for example, has a ZIPS projection model that considers the last three seasons. In 2024, Fangraphs believes Ronald Acuna Jr. will play 152 games and earn 43 home runs.
The same model has Aaron Judge hitting 40 home runs. However, the model believes Judge will only play 128 games and would get about 130 fewer at-bats than Acuna. So, while Judge might hit more home runs per plate appearance, Acuna would still add more home runs total.
However, make sure to look at injury history. Acuna Jr. already got hurt before the season began. While he expects to be healthy by Opening Day, Acuna Jr. hasn’t always been the healthiest over the last few seasons.
Still, before the season begins, Acuna Jr. is +1900, while Judge is +400. The projection loves Acuna Jr., and if you believe in him like the models, Acuna Jr. would be a really good pick at +1900.
Strategy No. 2: Stay away From the Super Longshots
It’s rare for a player to come into the league and just destroy out of the gate. Hitting the baseball is incredibly difficult. It’s likely one of the hardest things to do in sports.
Therefore, betting on a guy who hasn’t hit more than 30 home runs ever would be silly.
I’m not talking about +2000 long shots. I’m talking about +1000 long shots with a guy like Elly De La Cruz. He was phenomenal last year, but his power numbers won’t translate the way Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso and Shohei Ohtani’s power do.
Strategy No. 3: Protection in the Lineup
It’s hard to hit home runs when a pitcher can just pitch around you.
For example, the Yankees will likely hit Juan Soto ahead of Aaron Judge. If Soto has a bad season and doesn’t get on base as much as in other seasons, Judge wouldn’t find much success with Anthony Rizzo hitting behind him.
Rizzo has had some great years for the Yankees. However, last year wasn’t one of them. Therefore, pitchers would pitch around Judge to get to Rizzo, knowing Rizzo wasn’t seeing the ball well in this scenario.
This is just an example. I’d like to think Soto performs well, which would force pitchers to throw at Aaron Judge. But this is why you’ll always want to look at the lineup. Some of the best hitters won’t get stuff to hit and then earn fewer home runs because of it.
With Shohei Ohtani hitting in back of Mookie Betts and in front of Freddie Freeman, he’s got an amazing set-up. Betts and Freeman have both been some of the most consistent hitters in the National League over the last couple of seasons. Adding Ohtani in the middle would force a pitcher’s hand.
You don’t want to walk Ohtani and have to face Freeman. So you’ll have to attack Ohtani, especially if Betts is already on base.
Strategy No. 4: What’s the Batting Average?
Some players experience brutal slumps throughout the season, but you can look past that. Your goal is to identify hitters with high averages and high power.
For example, Fangraphs has projected Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit .304 with 43 home runs. They also like Freddie Freeman to hit .299 with 25 home runs and believe in Yordan Alvarez, who they’ve got hitting .298 with 36 home runs.
The players with higher averages typically don’t get into major slumps, which is ideal for hitting the most home runs in a regular season.
