With the recent explosion in popularity of Same Game Parlays for NFL betting, you can explore many different betting angles to come up with a script that tells the game’s story and maximizes your win at NFL betting sites if everything works out.
We wanted to go over the strategies involved with building a Same Game Parlay (SGP), including how certain props are correlated with traditional sides and totals. Understanding the differences in positive and negative correlation can help your NFL bets next season.
Examples of Positive Correlation in Parlays
When you build an SGP with stats that logically go together, you will see a positive correlation in the odds on your parlay. Each additional leg will increase the odds, but since they are positively correlated, it won’t increase the odds as much as you would if the stats were negatively correlated.
For example, if you bet the total in a game to go over, then adding legs where both quarterbacks throw over 1.5 touchdown passes would be positively correlated with that outcome. So would betting the over with a handful of different players to score touchdowns as you are conceding a high-scoring game.
If you bet the 49ers to go over 27.5 team points, and you also bet on Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel to score touchdowns, then that would all be positively correlated as a good day for the San Francisco offense.
DEEBO SAMUEL RUNS PAST JAMAL ADAMS FOR A 50 YARD TOUCHDOWN
pic.twitter.com/C41byueuKl— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) December 10, 2023
Generally speaking, overs are conducive for having a lot of yards and touchdowns in the game. Unders are conducive for not having a lot of yards and touchdowns scored.
For another example, if you bet on Patrick Mahomes to throw for a lot of yards in a game, then also betting that he’ll throw 2+ touchdown passes is positively correlated with that. In the 2023 season, Mahomes had 8 games where he threw for at least 272 yards, and he threw multiple touchdowns in 7-of-8 games when he did that.
An SGP involving the spread can also have a positive correlation. For example, if you bet the Ravens to cover a 12-point spread, then adding Lamar Jackson throwing 3 touchdowns would be positively correlated with that outcome, and so would taking the under on the opposing quarterback’s touchdown passes.
LAMAR JACKSON TOUCHDOWN
RAVENS TAKE THE LEADpic.twitter.com/xJFvC3FmAs
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) January 20, 2024
A blowout win for a favorite would also likely produce a game script where the opponent’s lead running back has a bad game for rushing yards. Most teams who get down big in the NFL abandon the run, so the favorite covering big and the opposing back’s under in rushing yards have positive correlation.
Examples of Negative Correlation in Parlays
When you build an SGP with stats that are logically disagreeable with one another, you will see a negative correlation in the odds on that parlay. This makes it harder to win the bet, but the odds will be much greater for a higher profit than if you chose something with positive correlation.
For example, if you bet on 3 great players to score a touchdown in a game where you also bet on under 42 points to hit, you will create a negative correlation and boost your odds. In this case, you are rooting for a 21-17 type of game where 5 touchdowns are scored, and hopefully, you picked 3 of the right players who scored them.
Similarly, you could bet on a player to score 2 touchdowns and still bet on their team to go under their team total for a negative correlation. Those odds will be much higher than if you bet on the team over to go along with the player scoring multiple touchdowns. Just keep in mind it’ll be harder to win this way.
Marquise Brown is the 1st player in NFL history with multiple 40-yard touchdowns in his career debut.
h/t @EliasSports pic.twitter.com/VDorwN0Nz3
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 8, 2019
Betting on something good to happen offensively while the score still goes under is the easiest way to create a negative correlation in NFL bets. But there are many other ways to do it too.
You could bet on a team to win big or score a lot of points even if the passing game produces very few yards. There were 25 games last year where a team won by at least 14 points even without 200 net passing yards. That’s almost 10% of all games in the season. The Ravens beat Houston 34-10 in the divisional round of the playoffs in a game where Lamar Jackson, the league MVP, only threw for 152 yards. Taking the Ravens -9.5, over 43.5, and Jackson’s under in passing yards would have been a nice 3-leg parlay with negative correlation.
In the previous section, we mentioned the spread and an opposing running back’s rushing yardage. For negative correlation, you could bet on a running back to rush for over 100 yards and his team still loses the game.
In the NFL, a back going for 100 yards usually comes in a win, and he usually crosses that 100-yard mark late in the game while the team is already leading. By going with a loss in this situation, you create good negative correlation. It is rare, but there were 24 games in 2023 where a running back rushed for 100 yards and his team still lost.
You could also get a good negative correlation by betting on a receiver to go off on a team and still watch his team lose. Maybe he puts up his stats in garbage time or with the game already well decided. Maybe he is the only player on his offense who shows up that day. Last year, there were 37 games where a receiver had over 100 yards and a touchdown and his team lost the game. That’s an average of 2 such games a week.
You just have to pick the right games.
Specific NFL Betting Angles to Take Advantage of Correlation
You can maximize the winnings on your SGPs if you focus on negatively correlated plays. We wanted to leave you with a few strategies to consider next season.
One Receiver Dominates for the Passing Game
The strategy is to bet the under in a quarterback’s passing yards along with the over in his No. 1 receiver’s receiving yards.
This works best for dysfunctional passing games where a quarterback may have tunnel vision for one receiver and isn’t very good at spreading the ball around to his other weapons. It also works best with run-heavy offenses that don’t like to throw for a lot of yards that frequently.
Some good examples of this last year include Chicago with Justin Fields and D.J. Moore, and Atlanta with Desmond Ridder and Drake London.
THE JUSTIN FIELDS TO D.J. MOORE CONNECTION IS LEGIT
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
— NFL Notifications (@NFLNotify) August 26, 2023
We’ll see what happens this year, but Tennessee could be an offense where this works with Will Levis now throwing to Calvin Ridley. You also could consider Bryce Young with Diontae Johnson in Carolina, or whoever the Denver quarterback is with Courtland Sutton.
Receivers: Deep Threats vs. Short Catch Merchants
If you use a sportsbook that allows you to parlay a player’s receptions with their receiving yards, then you can create some great negative correlation with betting on a certain style of play from the receiver in that matchup.
For example, you could take the under in receptions and over in receiving yards if you think the receiver is going to have a long gain that inflates his yardage while he still isn’t a huge part of the gameplan. Maybe he is a deep threat like Rashid Shaheed (Saints), who had a game last year with 153 yards on just 3 catches. He also had 2 catches for 85 yards against the Texans.
Rashid Shaheed vs Colts
3 receptions
153 receiving yards
1 touchdown pic.twitter.com/ufgEErwnVx— NOF (@nofnetwork) October 29, 2023
On the flip side of deep threats, sometimes you get a player who eats up short catches that don’t gain a lot of yards. While running backs are often guilty of this, it can even happen to No. 1 wide receivers in today’s game with all the dink-and-dunk, quick passes. You could bet on someone like Davante Adams or Stefon Diggs to have over 6.5 catches but still well under 70.5 yards in the same game.
