When most people begin betting on hockey, the first aspect they want to wager on at NHL betting sites is the winner.
That would be picking the winner on the money line (which is SU with varied odds) or the puck line, where one team is assigned -1.5, plus odds (meaning you have to win by two goals) and the other is +1.5, plus odds (either win outright or lose by one goal).
Typically, the skill of betting totals is a trial-and-error process that one develops on one’s own, which requires reading and learning. This aspect can be frustrating but when you are learning a new skill there will be ups and downs.
Here are methods to speed up the general process and keys to betting NHL totals.
Understanding Your Starting Point
For most of the early 2000s, oddsmakers pushed out totals of 5 or 5.5. With various rule changes to promote more open ice, scoring increased as hitting went down, (especially against the boards), to where the most common odds for totals today are 6 or 6.5.
When you see a 5.5 or 7 for a total, the former is usually two defensive teams with excellent goaltenders or the latter has a pair of offenses that pepper the net with skilled scorers.
When the total is 6.5, you know you have a sure winner because the final score will finish at 6 or lower, or 7 or higher. With top-rated sportsbooks always looking for an edge, when the total is 6, you rarely see normal odds (-110), and one side will be juiced based on circumstances and expectations and look this way:
OVER 6 (-120) / UNDER 6 (+100) – or variations of the odds.
These odds guarantee a winner and a loser.
Knowing How Teams Play and Keeping up With Changes
Each season, some teams have tremendous scoring power, with either top-line players that find the back of the net or scoring depth. Those types of teams will often feature higher-scoring games, particularly at home.
At the same time, there are those squads with a dearth of individuals who can put a puck past a netminder, and as expected those teams generally play lower-scoring affairs.
Most betting information sites and the bigger sports info sites will show who the top teams are for scoring and goals allowed and on any day you can see those exact numbers for comparative reasons.
Not that you don’t know this, but there will be those who don’t match the numbers over an 82-game regular season, as slumps and surges are part of a club’s season. You could find a paltry offense that averages less than 3.0 goals a game that will ring up 16 goals over four games. And a top-shelf offense that posts 3.4 GAG or higher will have 12 scores over five skirmishes. It just happens and it’s your job for betting totals to know this.
When looking at team season averages, always review goals scored for and against in the past five to seven contests, giving you the latest intel.
Follow the Home/Road Splits
Knowing what a hockey team scores and allows overall is only part of the equation. Because a team plays 41 games at home and 41 times on the road, understand the disparities. Here are two examples of theoretical teams with the same record after 50 games:
New York Rangers Record 25-25 Over/Under (3.15 goals per game and 2.89 GPG allowed)
- Home 14-11 OVER (3.25 goals per game and 2.95 GPG allowed)
- Road 11-14 UNDER (3.05 GPG and 2.83 GPG allowed)
Nothing out of the ordinary, as New York has a slight uptick in scoring at home and a modest decrease on the road.
Chicago Blackhawks Record 25-25 Over/Under (2.95 goals per game and 3.40 GPG allowed)
- Home 17-8 OVER (3.20 goals per game and 3.60 GPG allowed)
- Road 8-17 UNDER (2.70 GPG and 3.20 GPG allowed)
At home, Chicago plays a more wide-open style, which helps them score more frequently, yet, at the same time their defensemen are caught up ice and with the Blackhawks goalie nothing special, OVERs are the most common outcome.
Away from home, the Chicago coaching staff believes a more conservative approach is best as their team struggles to score on the road and they also look to reduce the opponents scoring chances.
Having this type of information is quite valuable for betting hockey totals.
Keep Track of Goalies and Special Teams
Following the netminders is crucial, similar to a starting pitcher in baseball. He’s the last line of defense and his play could mean winning or losing. The same is true for you betting on NHL totals.
Knowing his overall record on totals home and away carries weight and you should seldom consider a goalie for an Under if his save percentage is below 90% home or away.
Special teams by themselves can be a win-or-lose proposition. Whether it is scoring on a power play or keeping the opposing club out of the net when on a penalty kill. Coaches have gotten far more creative on power plays, with player movement which places more stress on defenses. A team with a stellar power play or weak on penalty kills can lean toward more Overs with the opposite true of man advantage deficiencies or menacing penalty killers favoring Unders.
We hope this helps you on your journey to become a profitable hockey totals winner.
