Many stars are born in March Madness.
Most of us know who the best players are on the Power 5 teams before going to the NCAAB betting sites. However, on the mid-major teams that make an unexpected run in the tournament, many don’t know any of those players.
That’s where the value is when it comes to betting on a player’s total points. While the best value is on the mid-major players, there’s still value on the high-major players when it comes to betting a player’s total points prop.
Let me explain below.
Don’t Stay away From Large Spreads
Most people think you should avoid games with large spreads in the NCAA Tournament. Yet, that’s far from the truth. Don’t worry about the spreads. It’s rare for a team to blow out another team in the NCAA Tournament.
Heck, we just saw No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson knock off No. 1 Purdue. No lead is safe in the tournament, and the best players will be on the court for almost the entire game.
While staying away from long spreads makes sense in the regular season, when it comes to Tournament time, any of that goes out the window.
Line Movement
It’s important to pay attention to where the action is coming in. If the money is pouring on one side late, you’re likely not going to want to take an Over with the player who is on the other side of that movement.
The line movement could go both ways.
The Underdog team could move from +210 to +150, for example. That’s a movement that would bait me into betting the Over on a player prop I like on that Underdog team. I’d be less inclined to bet on the Over for a player on the team favored with that line movement.
Injury History
In March Madness, it’s easy to get fatigued and hurt. To make a run at the NCAA Tournament, you need to play two games in four days multiple times throughout.
Some guys will be playing through pain, knowing it’s their last chance at an NCAA Tournament. For some, it’ll be the last games they’ll ever play in college basketball. Some of these players aren’t coming out of the game. But if they’re still hurt, the production might be limited.
Injury-plagued Wagner win away from completing unlikely run to March Madness https://t.co/fsh6gNxQlP pic.twitter.com/VqbdgYxoPL
— New York Post (@nypost) March 12, 2024
You need to check the injury reports, lurk around on social media with beat reports and know how a player is feeling. If there are constant updates about a player’s chances of playing, it’s probably best to take the Under or not bet it entirely. There would be too many concerns about that specific player.
Even if he was playing and healthy, he could reinjure himself and then have to sit out the rest of the game. You don’t want to bet on unknowns like that.
Team Stats
When it comes to mid-major teams, some of these squads only have one or two reliable scorers. There will be teams with one scorer who averages 20 points per game while the rest of the team is averaging no more than 12 points.
In Tournament games, the highest scorer and the player with the most volume shooting will likely get the most looks.
There’s a small margin for error with mid-major teams, so it’s important that the best player gets the most shots and the highest volume. Take that into consideration when betting on a player’s points from a mid-major team in March Madness.
For example, does anyone remember when Steph Curry played for Davidson and scored 40 points against Gonzaga in 2008? Davidson was a 10-seed with a point guard that many people didn’t know at the time.
What about Jimmer Fredette when he and BYU defeated San Diego State in 2011? Fredette had 43 points in the win. Or, we can look at how Jarius Lyles added 28 points for UMBC in a major upset against Virginia in 2018.
To earn major upsets, you need your top guys to play at an unreal level. Those guys did it. If you think there’s going to be another major upset, consider backing the Over for some of the best mid-major scorers in the nation this year.
Most of all, trust your research and thought process. If you put in the work, you’ll see results long-term!
