“Programs! Get your programs! Can’t tell the players without a program!” hawked the vendors outside the turnstiles back in the day. They cost a quarter, and for another nickel, you could get a pencil for keeping score.
You’ll need more than a quarter these days, and you might ask if there’s an advanced metrics insert that can be added, one that includes ballpark factors for you to consider at the MLB betting sites.
Calculating Ballpark Factors
Back when programs cost a quarter, ballpark factors consisted of casual and simple observations about the park’s construction or how balls were carried.
When you walked inside the old Yankee Stadium, you saw the short porch in right field. It’s impossible not to notice the Green Monster at Fenway Park, a wall that giveth and taketh away. And within an inning at the Astrodome, it was easy to see it was where fly balls went to die.
Like a lot of other things in life, especially sports, the math geeks decided to quantify those observations with stats upon stats upon stats, and the result is there are more ways to calculate ballpark factors than there are ballparks.
The most basic method is to divide the runs scored at a team’s home games by the runs scored in that team’s road games. Some formulas get more complicated, but like any other stat, it’s worthless if the bettor doesn’t understand how the calculation is done.
Hitter-Friendly Isn’t an ‘Over’ Guarantee
Just as a pitcher-friendly stadium isn’t always a strong ‘under’ play, a ballpark known to be a hitter’s paradise isn’t necessarily going to cash ‘over’ tickets on a regular basis.
The reason for that is very simple: top sportsbooks have math geeks of their own, and their oddsmakers have a pretty good grasp on how the public looks at all stats, including park factors.
Ask the average baseball bettor whether PNC Park in Pittsburgh is a pitcher’s or hitter’s stadium, and most will tell you it favors the guys on the mound. And yet, the Pirates went 48-30-3 O/U/P at home in 2023.
On the other end, bettors know all about the high altitude and dry conditions at Coors Field in Denver. The stadium has consistently produced the top scoring among all ballparks since it opened in 1995, and in 2023, it ranked as the most hitter-friendly of them all once again.
Still, oddsmakers almost nailed the totals perfectly; the Rockies finished 41-40 O/U in their 81 home tilts.
Personnel a Major Factor
There are several reasons why the numbers change from season to season at any park. One is the dimensions can change at a stadium, such as in 2022 when the Baltimore Orioles moved the left field fence back at Camden Yards.
Personnel changes are the biggest factor in calculating a stadium as pitcher-friendly this year, and hitter-friendly two years down the road.
In 2021, the Texas Rangers ranked last in the American League in scoring. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien were added, and Texas finished first in scoring in 2023, with their home games going 49-28-8 O/U/P (including playoffs).
Different Stadium for Totals & Prop Plays
Another thing bettors want to keep in mind is that just because there’s a lot of scoring at a stadium, that doesn’t directly correlate to a lot of home runs. Coors Field is a perfect example.
By moving the fences back in Denver to balance the effect caused by the altitude, it increased the amount of outfield area by nearly 10%. Believe it or not, that extra territory makes Coors Field more vulnerable to short flies dropping in for singles, as well as opening gaps for doubles and triples.
Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is far more home run friendly than Coors Field, yet there are fewer singles, doubles, and triples. This is especially important for prop bettors to consider, and the difference in the HR frequencies at those two parks will be seen in the MLB odds.
Weather & Umpires Affect Hitter-Friendly Parks
Mother Nature is always critical to a bettor’s play, and there’s no stadium where weather is a bigger factor than Wrigley Field.
Most sportsbooks wait until the morning of the game to release their totals, and bettors are well-advised to monitor wind conditions right up until the instant they make their wagers.
Just as some ballparks are known as friends to either pitchers or hitters, some umpires are hitter-friendly and pitcher-friendly. Some umpires – cough*Angel Hernandez*cough – have even become ‘no plays’ for some bettors.
This is the Top 15 Hitter-Friendly Parks of 2023 as rated by Forbes Magazine.
