Do We Like Player Props?
NBA player props are an emerging market. Top NBA betting sites like Bookmaker (check our Bookmaker Review) have increased the amount of markets that they offer.
Their process is refined and the numbers they post are sharp. Also, they have an active market of sharp bettors to help shape their lines to give the most accurate possible number at tip-off. Because of this, sides and totals are difficult markets to beat. Many multi-sport bettors are turning to player props rather than sides and totals when betting on the NBA.
So What Is a Prop Bet?
Prop bet is short for proposition bet. There are three types of prop bets:
- Player props
- Game props
- Team props
A game prop means you will bet on a certain statistic, like steals, to cumulatively go over or under a set number for one game. Team props mean you can bet on the number of a statistical category, like steals, for just one team, and not the whole game.
Props Categories
Props are also available for almost every category. Points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks are all categories in which a bettor can wager. Even turnovers are a player prop that you can bet on! So with a wide range of options available, the bettor can find an angle with which he is comfortable and he believes he has found an edge. Or you can simply bet and root to see your favorite player excel.
Performance What?
Player props can also be combined into a performance double. A performance double is where you bet a certain player to go over a statistic as well as his team to win, oftentimes eschewing the point spread. Performance doubles are a great way to increase your profit by combining knowledge of player’s performances with selecting the proper team to win.
So Why Have Player Props Become So Popular?
It is a different type of handicap. When betting on a side, you are projecting the team’s abilities to compete against each other and the way they match up. When betting a total, you are considering factors such as pace as well as offensive and defensive efficiency.
When betting on NBA player props we are predicting usage. While high usage does not always correlate to a player going over a prop, it is the best way to judge the probability of a player going over that prop. The star players’ shots, rebounding opportunities, and assist opportunities remain fairly stable throughout the season. When I know the player is the number one option on the offense, I can project that he will score plenty of points.
For example, here’s a NBA projection that would be helpful when betting on a player:
Every Wall Breaks
Another way to attack player props is by looking at an individual defense’s weaknesses. Certain teams are vulnerable to strong centers. Other teams have problems guarding the point of attack. When knowing the weakness in an opposing team’s defense, player prop betters can find advantage matchups.
Injuries and player absences are also another way to attack the player prop market. When a high-usage player is removed from the lineup, there is more opportunity for his teammates to run up their statistics. This isn’t always accounted for by the sportsbooks. Being aware of injuries and lineup changes can help you make profitable player prop bets.
How Stable Is All of This?
With any emerging market, there is a level of volatility in setting the books’ lines. The books are still learning how to handicap player props. This is evident in the maximum limits that a bettor may wager on these props. The lower the maximum, the greater the liability the books see in the line that they have posted. The fact that they won’t offer high limits shows that the books know that these player props are an area in which they could be vulnerable.
Knowledge of player props will help you as a handicapper. It forces you to become more aware of rotations, minute distributions, popular lineups used by coaches, and efficiency. These will help you when betting sides and totals, as well as providing another lucrative menu of bets to make. Player props are the logical evolution in the world of sports betting.
When considering these factors, it is easy to see why player props should be a part of your betting portfolio. By understanding factors such as a player’s usage and the positions a team is vulnerable in defending, you can place sharp player prop bets that are bound to be profitable. So don’t just limit yourself to the sides and totals; dive into the world of NBA player props to make yourself a more profitable sports bettor.
