Statistics drive everything in baseball these days, and that includes how ballparks can play into a bettor’s decision for playing a game ‘over’ or ‘under’ the total, when playing at the top MLB betting sites.
Analytics drive everything in baseball these days, and there are enough numbers to choke a horse. From exit velocity to spin rates, WAR to BABIP, the flood of statistics has a double-edged sword effect: Extra information for bettors and fans is great, but wading through the analytical pool can be daunting and confusing.
Stadiums, and their effects on pitchers and hitters, have not escaped the stat geeks. Runs scored are one obvious factor into the equation, but like a lot of relationship statuses on Facebook, it’s complicated and failure to understand just what the numbers mean can cause trouble for those playing at top sportsbooks.
Park Factors are Fluid from Season to Season
There are different formulas used to determine if a ballpark is pitcher-friendly or not, some calculating for one season and others for multiple seasons. One of the most important things bettors need to know is the number is fluid, and stadiums that are kind to pitchers one season can be unkind the next.
Case in point: Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In 2021, Camden Yards was hitter-friendly according to the Park Factors used by baseball-reference.com. The park moved to a neutral rating in 2022, then favored pitchers in the recently-completed 2023 campaign.
Not coincidentally, the Orioles were last in the AL in ERA in 2021, ninth in 2022 and fifth in 2023. Another dynamic was Baltimore moving the left field fences back at the start of the 2022 season, and their pitchers reaped the rewards.
Keeping up with the personnel changes, as well as stadium configuration, is a must for bettors who cannot simply go by last season’s Ballpark Effects as gospel for the next season. Oddsmakers are already calculating the changes into their totals. While the park factor was changing in Baltimore from 2021-23, here are the betting results:
- 2023: 37-43-4 O/U/P (incl. playoffs)
- 2022: 38-40-3 O/U/P
- 2021: 43-34-4 O/U/P
Several Pitcher-Friendly Parks on West Coast
While the data going into calculating park effects can change from one season to the next, there are stadiums that consistently produce lower scores regardless of personnel changes. Three of those stadiums dot the West Coast in San Diego, Oakland and Seattle.
T-Mobile Park, nee Safeco, was rated as the most pitcher-friendly in 2022 and 2023 by Baseball Savant. Totals in those season reflected the rating with a 38-40-3 O/U/P record this past season, and a more pronounced ‘under’ lean in 2022 at 33-44-4 O/U/P.
Despite Seattle’s stadium being tough on lineups to push runs across – the Mariners ranked 7th in the AL in scoring – T-Mobile Park rated around the middle in the number of home runs.
Having just completed its 20th season, Petco Park in San Diego has been recognized as a great park for pitchers since it first opened. And it was a great park for ‘under’ bettors in 2023 with Padres home games resulting in a 32-47-2 O/U/P record.
The Oakland Coliseum has been a friend to pitchers as well, with the immense foul territory a big factor. It rated as one of the top 3 parks for pitchers in 2023, yet slightly favored the ‘over’ (41-37-3 O/U/P). Even with the vast foul territory, A’s pitchers allowed 5.70 RPG.
Pitcher-Friendly Isn’t Always ‘Under’ Friendly
It’s very easy for bettors to be fooled into thinking a ballpark that generally rates well for pitchers is going to produce ‘under’ wins at the MLB odds window. The fine folks setting the totals know this, and take advantage of those bettors.
PNC Park in Pittsburgh has long rated as a pitcher-friendly park, or at least a neutral stadium. The Pirates also haven’t had a formidable lineup, with 2016 the last time they ranked in the top half of the NL in scoring.
And yet, the Pirates were a good ‘over’ play in 2023, with their home games resulting in a 48-30-3 O/U/P record.
Likewise, Truist Park in Atlanta has remained fairly neutral as far as Park Factors go, but the Braves were the best ‘over’ play in 2023 (94-69-3 O/U/P) and their home games went 46-36-1 O/U/P.
Weather & Umpires Two More Considerations
While the mathematicians include all sorts of meaningful stats when calculating Ballpark Factors, there are two contributing factors they do not account for: the weather and the umpires.
Wind is certainly something to take into account, and its effect is best seen in the fact most sportsbooks don’t release totals for Chicago Cubs games until up-to-date weather forecasts are available on game day.
Temperature is just as important as the wind. Those cooler temps in April are usually a pitcher’s friend, but once it begins to warm up, even some of the more pitcher-friendly parks can become a paradise for hitters.
Umpires should be a consideration for bettors when the information is available. An ump with a tight zone can turn a stadium like Petco Park and the Oakland Coliseum into a scoreboard buster.
